MNI: Fed Sees Rates As Well-Positioned For Now - Minutes
MNI: Fed Sees Rates As Well-Positioned For Now - Minutes
MNI INTERVIEW: NBH Seen Cutting 25BP in February, March Open
MNI INTERVIEW: NBH Seen Cutting 25BP in February, March Open
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Silver Unwinds Its Overbought Condition
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MNI INTERVIEW: NBH Seen Cutting 25BP in February, March Open
MNI INTERVIEW: NBH Seen Cutting 25BP in February, March Open
Silver Unwinds Its Overbought Condition
Silver Unwinds Its Overbought Condition
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Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260213_77eb103435.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Overall, it was a solid week for the dual mandate variables. January's nonfarm payrolls emboldened the FOMC hawks and all but eliminated the chances of a cut at the next meeting in March, but the more-moderate-than-expected January inflation data were probably enough to keep the Fed's easing bias alive. * The BLS Employment report for January was stronger than expected, rebutting various alternative indicators that either surprised lower or were outright soft in the past two weeks. * And while the 130k payrolls gain and lowest unemployment rate since July came with some caveats, multiple analysts pushed back their expectations for the resumption of the Fed easing cycle beyond March. * Having received some reassurance on the "full employment" side of the Fed's dual mandate, January's inflation report relieved some concerns on the "price stability" goal, with sequential headline and core CPI measures below-expected, though among other issues underlying the figures were a core goods pickup and an expansion of inflation breadth (and opinions vary on the ultimate PCE implications). * December's roundly weaker than expected retail sales data also carried a dovish tone, leading to a downward revision to Q4 personal consumption expenditures and raising new concerns about the momentum of consumption going into 2025. * A patient approach is still expected, at least under Powell's Fed. A next cut is still not fully priced for June and instead is seen in July, building to 62.5bp of cuts over 2026 vs 60.5bp pre-CPI and 59bp pre-NFP. * In the upcoming holiday-shortened week, we get the minutes to the January Fed meeting which while stale after the latest data will be watched for the discussion on heightening the bar to further easing. * The coming week's data releases are backloaded, with the advance Q4 national accounts release and December personal income and outlays report both on Friday. * Analysts currently eye a 2.8% annualized increase for real GDP growth in Q4 - some moderation in GDP growth is expected therefore after the 4.4% in Q3 and 3.8% in Q2, but of greater pertinence is domestic demand which is tracking at a softer 2.3% annualized according to GDPNow, * December core PCE inflation is expected to be on the strong side, with analyst unrounded estimates on balance eyeing a slightly 'low' 0.4% M/M. In terms of inflation pressures when thinking about subsequent nominal numbers, they could have remained firm in January as well, with an admittedly unusually wide range of 0.19-0.49% M/M for core PCE inflation seen after the January CPI report.
February 13, 2026 09:25Financing of the JPY5trn food consumption tax suspension raises questions on Japanese fiscal.
February 13, 2026 05:39Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain, and France will be looking to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
February 13, 2026 05:13Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain, and France will be looking to hold auctions in the W/C 16 February.
February 13, 2026 06:46FX Market Analysis
FX Market AnalysisFinancing of the JPY5trn food consumption tax suspension raises questions on Japanese fiscal.
February 13, 2026 05:39A weekly wrap of some of the key data outcomes/macro themes for the Asia Pac region
February 13, 2026 06:17A stronger than expected payrolls report defied a raft of soft labor indicators and has seen analysts delay cut calls
February 12, 2026 05:24Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Feb2026_4401ef516e.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Consensus looks for an acceleration in core CPI following recent soft prints, helped by typical startofyear price resets and the ongoing normalization from the shutdowndistorted Oct/Nov data. Core is seen rising to 0.36% M/M after December's 0.24% (based on unrounded estimates), with headline 0.29% after 0.31%. * Several technical factors mean any acceleration should be interpreted with caution. January is prone to residual seasonality effects and this report brings new relativeimportance CPI weights, both of which may subtly reshape monthly dynamics and make it difficult to make a clean read. * Indeed, shutdown-related distortions from late 2025 are likely to still complicate interpretation, with delayed data collection, atypical sampling windows, and the reversal of holiday discount effects. These could continue to reverberate in January readings, particularly across categories priced on a bimonthly rotation, which include most non-housing core CPI. * While the above factors are probably taken into account in analysts' estimates, on balance they still suggest that an upside surprise in particular is likely to be heavily caveated and downplayed, both by analysts and by policymakers, much in the same way as recent downside surprises have been faded. * Analysts expect firmer goods and services inflation in January, including for supercore, though with wide uncertainty. Used cars, certain core goods categories, and several service components are seen contributing to sequential strength, even as volatile travel categories may moderate. * Housing inflation is expected to remain on its gradual disinflationary path, with rent and OER readings likely close to December's pace but still influenced by the long lag in normalization. * With the next FOMC meeting still several weeks away, this report alone is unlikely to meaningfully shift expectations around nearterm rate cuts, especially with the latest labor market data appearing to eliminate any lingering impetus to stave off labor market risks. Policymakers will have both February CPI and an additional nonfarm payrolls release available before making decisions at the March meeting. * Nevertheless, this release remains a key test of whether tariff-related pressures, earlyyear price adjustments, and lingering categoryspecific normalization are beginning to exert more persistent influence-an issue several FOMC participants have highlighted as central to judging the underlying inflation trajectory.
February 11, 2026 09:55
