MNI BoC Preview-Mar 2026: Oil Shock Meets Soft Data

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Mar2026_c73d15d436.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by both markets and analysts to maintain its overnight rate for a 3rd consecutive decision at 2.25% at the March meeting (announcement on Mar 18). * The main point of interest for the meeting communications is how Governing Council views the risks to the economic outlook posed by the war in the Middle East that has broken out since the prior meeting in January. * Domestic economic developments would have appeared to argue - if anything - for further easing, and indeed as of February 27 (even before the soft February data releases) there were about 8bp of cuts priced in OIS by the end of 2026, vs 8bp of hikes a month earlier. * But the conflict in Iran sharply increased expectations of hikes: on the eve of the March rate announcement there are currently ~33bp in 2026 hikes priced, down slightly from the 40bp seen late last week (with February's soft CPI and jobs reports helping tame the case for hikes). There are no longer any analysts who expect the BOC to cut rates this year, though most see hikes starting only in 2027. * As with other major economies, the spike in energy prices in March is inevitably going to push up headline CPI and spread into core prices, with a negative impact on consumers. Unlike other major economies, however Canada's status as an energy exporter means the growth impact is seen as positive on net, due in large part to better terms of trade, which adds an additional complication for the BOC's assessment of the economic trajectory. * Given the fluid situation in the Mideast, the BOC's "wait and see" approach, with an expression of optionality to move rates in either direction, is likely to persist. * MNI's Instant Answers looks for any clearer signs on rate intentions, including whether the Bank signals it is prepared to lower, raise, or hold rates in future.

MNI UK Labour Market Preview: March 2026 Release

We look ahead to this week's UK labour market data.

MNI ECB Preview: Goodbye To A Good Place?

The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold but with a firmly hawkish rates backdrop looking for some hiking optionality

MNI Fed Preview - March 2026: Analyst Outlook

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Mar2026_With_Analysts_8faa54d89e.pdf This update of our March 13 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 41 March 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: Cuts Delayed, Not Denied Analysts are unanimously agreed that the FOMC won't adjust rates at the March meeting, based on 31 meeting previews we read. * The median analyst sees 50bp of rate cuts remaining in the cycle, though there are almost as many who eye 75bp cuts. That's not much changed since the January meeting (same 50bp MNI median) despite a sharp repricing out of rate cuts in the market due to the fallout from the war in the Middle East. * For those analysts who see cuts resuming, the expectation for the restart is split between June and September of this year, even with multiple analysts having pushed back their timelines following the January employment report and/or the breakout of hostilities in the Middle East. * March Dot Plot: Expectations are overwhelmingly that the rate dot medians in the new SEP will remain unchanged (implying the median FOMC member still sees 1 rate cut this year and another in 2027). We saw only one analyst (ING) expect the 2026 dot to be revised to show no implied cuts. * Two analysts (BofA and Deutsche) expect the longer-run dot to be nudged up to 3.1% from 3.0%. * March macro forecasts: Opinion is slightly split on how the macro forecasts will shift vs December. Most analysts see 2026 growth revised lower, though some expect an upgrade. There is broad expectation that 2026 PCE inflation (especially headline) will be revised meaningfully higher, to reflect the latest rise in energy prices. * March Statement: Among those who expressed opinions on dissents, there appears to be consensus that there will be two in favor of a rate cut (Miran and Waller), though some see only one (Miran) and some see three (with Bowman). * Tweaks to the Statement are mostly seen as limited, with several analysts expecting language added to recognize increased uncertainty and risks to the dual mandate goals due to the conflict in the Middle East.