MNI INTERVIEW: Banxico To Cut 3 Times, March Possible-Campos
MNI INTERVIEW: Banxico To Cut 3 Times, March Possible-Campos
MNI INTERVIEW: Warsh Fed Will See Room For Rate Cuts- Shelton
MNI INTERVIEW: Warsh Fed Will See Room For Rate Cuts- Shelton
Silver Unwinds Its Overbought Condition
Silver Unwinds Its Overbought Condition
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MNI INTERVIEW: Banxico To Cut 3 Times, March Possible-Campos
MNI INTERVIEW: Warsh Fed Will See Room For Rate Cuts- Shelton
MNI INTERVIEW: Warsh Fed Will See Room For Rate Cuts- Shelton
Silver Unwinds Its Overbought Condition
Silver Unwinds Its Overbought Condition
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FI Market Analysis
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260220_a4427bd239.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Friday's announcement of the US Supreme Court decision to strike down the White House's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs overshadowed the week's data and Fed developments. * Even if the court's decision wasn't entirely shocking (prediction markets indicated only a 25% probability that the court would uphold the tariffs), it left open questions over whether and when tariff refunds will be paid, and potential impacts on existing trade deals negotiated under the auspices of IEEPA. * One thing that does seem clear is that the sudden drop in tariff rates will be reversed at least partially, muting the longer-run macro impact. The administration was quick to announce a global 10% tariff via Section 122 authority with Section 232 and 301 tariffs to remain and be expanded over time. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that this approach would result in "virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026". * Elsewhere, real GDP surprised much lower than expected at 1.4% annualized (cons 2.8) in the Q4 advance release after 4.4% in Q3, although the government sector weighed heavily owing to the shutdown and a very strong deflator. Private demand metrics were close to expectations with PDFP at 2.35%. * Core PCE inflation was in line with unrounded expectations in the delayed December report at 0.355% M/M whilst it ended the year at 3.0% Y/Y (highest since Apr 2024). Core goods inflation accelerated to 2.0% Y/Y (highest since May 2023) whilst supercore PCE inflation at 3.3% Y/Y saw zero disinflationary progress compared to the 3.3% averaged across 2025. * Second tier data saw some sizeable strength with core durable goods accelerating in a positive sign of business investment and with industrial production growth regaining traction and broadening out. * Labor data saw some sequential improvements as well, with weekly ADP rising an average 10.25k per week for its fastest since late November and initial jobless claims surprised notably lower. * Business sentiment indicators were more mixed however, including the flash PMIs for February slipping with the manufacturing index at a seven-month low and services at a ten-month low. It came against a backdrop of strong input and selling cost inflation. * The December trade deficit surprised higher on a pullback in gold net exports. Tech-led capital goods imports continue to surge but are offset by consumer and industrial goods in tariff front-running payback. * The FOMC minutes had a hawkish addition with "several" members wanted to keep open the possibility that the next Fed rate move could be a hike, not necessarily a cut. * Gov. Miran meanwhile pared back his rate cut view, seeing a need for 100bp vs 150bp of cuts this year. * Near-term, last week's NFP-driven hawkish shift has extended further this week, with just 15bp of cuts priced for the June FOMC. There is however still a cumulative 56bp of cuts to year-end and terminal yields are at still the dovish end of recent ranges. * Next week sees data focus on the delayed January PPI for both broader input cost pressures after a strong December update plus the usual PCE readthrough following strong tracking after January CPI.
February 20, 2026 09:10The EFSF is likely to hold a syndication in the upcoming week, while four countries will be looking to hold auctions.
February 20, 2026 04:45The French non-competitive rounds for the MT and linker auctions will close this afternoon. We look ahead to next week.
February 20, 2026 06:45We look at the details of the CPI and labour releases this week.
February 19, 2026 04:33FX Market Analysis
FX Market AnalysisEXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * At tomorrow's RBNZ meeting the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold. The Bloomberg survey of sell-side economists shows all 22 economists see the policy rate being held at 2.25%. Our strong bias is also for no change tomorrow. If realized, this will leave the focus firmly on the outlook, particular on the RBNZ's new OCR path. The other focus point will be gauging new RBNZ Governor Breman's tone, as this will be her first rate setting meeting in charge. * The RBNZ will also likely be cautious around sounding too hawkish around the outlook, which the market will likely judge via the implied OCR outlook path. We would be surprised if the OCR path is more hawkish than current market pricing, which implies a policy rate near 2.65% by year's end (versus the current rate of 2.25%). The NZD TWI is up over 4% from Nov 2025 lows, while local rates have also risen. A further material tightening of financial conditions could put the economic recovery in jeopardy. This is also where Breman's tone is likely to be watched closely in terms of keeping the policy outlook flexible. FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:RBNZ Preview - Feb 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/RBNZ_Preview_Feb_2026_2056d416c2.pdf
February 17, 2026 02:35Both headline and core CPI were softer than expected with 2026 price resets but core PCE estimates mostly look robust
February 16, 2026 05:04It’s a huge week for UK data with labour market data (Tuesday), inflation data (Wednesday) as well as flash PMIs.
February 16, 2026 04:41Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260213_77eb103435.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Overall, it was a solid week for the dual mandate variables. January's nonfarm payrolls emboldened the FOMC hawks and all but eliminated the chances of a cut at the next meeting in March, but the more-moderate-than-expected January inflation data were probably enough to keep the Fed's easing bias alive. * The BLS Employment report for January was stronger than expected, rebutting various alternative indicators that either surprised lower or were outright soft in the past two weeks. * And while the 130k payrolls gain and lowest unemployment rate since July came with some caveats, multiple analysts pushed back their expectations for the resumption of the Fed easing cycle beyond March. * Having received some reassurance on the "full employment" side of the Fed's dual mandate, January's inflation report relieved some concerns on the "price stability" goal, with sequential headline and core CPI measures below-expected, though among other issues underlying the figures were a core goods pickup and an expansion of inflation breadth (and opinions vary on the ultimate PCE implications). * December's roundly weaker than expected retail sales data also carried a dovish tone, leading to a downward revision to Q4 personal consumption expenditures and raising new concerns about the momentum of consumption going into 2025. * A patient approach is still expected, at least under Powell's Fed. A next cut is still not fully priced for June and instead is seen in July, building to 62.5bp of cuts over 2026 vs 60.5bp pre-CPI and 59bp pre-NFP. * In the upcoming holiday-shortened week, we get the minutes to the January Fed meeting which while stale after the latest data will be watched for the discussion on heightening the bar to further easing. * The coming week's data releases are backloaded, with the advance Q4 national accounts release and December personal income and outlays report both on Friday. * Analysts currently eye a 2.8% annualized increase for real GDP growth in Q4 - some moderation in GDP growth is expected therefore after the 4.4% in Q3 and 3.8% in Q2, but of greater pertinence is domestic demand which is tracking at a softer 2.3% annualized according to GDPNow, * December core PCE inflation is expected to be on the strong side, with analyst unrounded estimates on balance eyeing a slightly 'low' 0.4% M/M. In terms of inflation pressures when thinking about subsequent nominal numbers, they could have remained firm in January as well, with an admittedly unusually wide range of 0.19-0.49% M/M for core PCE inflation seen after the January CPI report.
February 13, 2026 09:25
