MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight: Nov 2025

HICP inflation was as originally expected but marginally above where consensus likely stood following most country data.

MNI US Macro Weekly: Hawkish December Cut Prospects Firm

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_251128_d27ba2f6b9.pdf Executive Summary * The delayed retail sales report for September was softer than expected, with control group sales seeing their first (nominal) decline since April. We estimate a reasonably large decline in retail sale volumes in September, with weak momentum heading into Q4 after a solid Q3. * On the flip side, core durable goods orders continued a string of solid readings in recent months with the preliminary September readings, pointing to decent momentum for production into Q4. * Core PPI inflation was softer than expected back in September and broadly chimes with underlying core goods CPI inflation, with a peak for post-tariff M/M inflation pressures having come earlier in the summer (June for our median estimate on the CPI side, July for core PPI). * Core PCE tracking has been trimmed a little further to ~0.22% M/M after 0.23% M/M in Aug and the 0.24% averaged through May-July, with scope for small upward revisions. * Jobless claims were mixed, with particularly healthy initial claims, and on balance don't suggest any further deterioration in the unemployment rate after September's increase. * The ADP update however saw a third weekly decline, pointing to a weak monthly report ahead. * Consumer confidence saw a sharp decline in the November Conference Board survey although the labor differential at least didn't deteriorate further. * The 2026 fiscal year started with a larger than expected deficit in October, in what had been a wide range of expectations owing to shutdown disruption. The combination with November's data will give a better indication of latest fiscal direction but for now the 12-month trailing deficit remains large at 5.9% GDP. * The week's most notable intraday shift in rates came on a Bloomberg sources piece on Hassett seen as frontrunner for Fed Chair, after Waller had earlier in the week been seen in closer contention. It prompted a sizeable rally for 2H26 contracts and onwards plus steepening in the Treasury curve. * Fedspeak was heavily limited by the Thanksgiving holiday but saw SF Fed's Daly support a December cut. Waller also unsurprisingly did but then warned on the January meeting being "tricky" amidst a flood of data. * The Beige Book meanwhile reported little change in economic activity over the past six weeks whilst there were net dovish developments across employment and inflation on a breadth basis. * Next week would ordinarily have been geared towards a NFP report on Friday but that it now set for Dec 16 as the BLS continues to work its way through the shutdown-induced data backlog. Instead, expect the myriad of labor releases starting Wednesday along with ISM surveys and monthly PCE data to help finalize market expectations ahead of the Dec 9-10 FOMC meeting, where we currently anticipate a hawkish cut.

MNI UK Budget Review: Hike Taxes, Energy Prices into Election?

We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable

MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region