MNI: France An EU Outlier In Hawkish China Stance - Officials
MNI: France An EU Outlier In Hawkish China Stance - Officials
MNI CNB Preview - Dec 2025: Repo Rate To End 2025 At 3.50%
MNI CNB Preview - Dec 2025: Repo Rate To End 2025 At 3.50%
Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish
Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish
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MNI: France An EU Outlier In Hawkish China Stance - Officials
MNI CNB Preview - Dec 2025: Repo Rate To End 2025 At 3.50%
MNI CNB Preview - Dec 2025: Repo Rate To End 2025 At 3.50%
Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish
Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish
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MNI BRIEF: Risk Of Undershooting Not Big -ECB's De Guindos
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FI Market Analysis
FI Market Analysis
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Review_Dec2025_54d0f2cd46.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The FOMC delivered what was widely anticipated to be a "hawkish cut" at the December meeting, lowering the Funds rate range by 25bp to 3.50%-3.75% while portraying a cautious stance on further adjustments in the Statement and Dot Plot. * But with most of the main communications having been well-anticipated - from the subtle shift in forward guidance in the Statement, to the unchanged Dot Plot rate forecast medians - overall the meeting outcome brought some slight dovish surprises and a concomitant market reaction. * Rates markets ended up pricing in two 25bp cuts thorough October 2026 a little more firmly (by about 3bp) than they did before the decision, though a January cut remains a longshot (about 25% implied probability before and after the meeting). * We go through the composition of the Dot Plot (unchanged medians, including 1 cut in each of the next 2 years), the adjustments to the economic projections (slightly lower inflation profile through 2026), and the change in Statement language (eyeing the "extent and timing" of future adjustments) in our review - but none of these were at all surprising. In particular, the paucity of official economic data since the September projections made it unlikely that participants would have a radically changed view of the outlook, and so it proved in the SEP. * That didn't mean there weren't some surprises, but these were marginally dovish leaning on net. * We haven't yet seen any analyst view changes following the meeting, though there's probably not enough new information received that would change opinions on the rate trajectory. * See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch
December 10, 2025 09:38Coming out of the meeting, markets price in 25bp of cumulative hikes through the October 2026 meeting, vs 27bp prior.
December 10, 2025 04:36In a unanimous decision, the RBA’s Board decided to leave rates at 3.6%.
December 10, 2025 06:05The Bank of Canada’s easing cycle looks to be at an end.
December 09, 2025 05:14FX Market Analysis
FX Market AnalysisComing out of the meeting, markets price in 25bp of cumulative hikes through the October 2026 meeting, vs 27bp prior.
December 10, 2025 04:36In a unanimous decision, the RBA’s Board decided to leave rates at 3.6%.
December 10, 2025 06:05The Bank of Canada’s easing cycle looks to be at an end.
December 09, 2025 05:14Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
December 08, 2025 10:40
