MNI RBNZ Preview-April 2026: Ongoing Pause, Weak Outlook

The RBNZ is unanimously expected on Bloomberg to leave rates at 2.25% when the MPC announces its decision on 8 April.

MNI US Employment Insight: Strong Bounce Alleviates Concerns

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Employment_Report_Apr2026_450bc23a24.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * March's BLS employment report was undoubtedly strong in the main readings, and will have allayed concerns that February's pullback in payrolls portended a renewed leg of weakness in the labor market. * The 178k headline gains in the Establishment survey was the highest since December 2024, easily beating the 70k MNI dealer median, with private payrolls up 186k vs the 75k expected. And the dip in the unemployment rate to a 9-month low 4.26% (consensus 4.4%, 4.44% prior) in the Household Survey suggested that the headline payroll gains were no fluke. * But while this was a better-than-expected report, it comes in the context of significant volatility in month-to-month figures, including major revisions to February's reading (-113k vs -92k, offset by a +34k upside revision to January). And the rebound, while impressively broad across sectors, was still heavily driven by healthcare employment and other sectors that appeared impacted by one-off factors in February. * Stepping back, the 3-month change in payrolls has been a solid if more modest +68k (an 11-month high), with the 6-month average gains rising to 15k from -2k in Feb for the highest since in 6 months. So, an improvement in trends, but not enough to suggest that employment gains are doing anything but treading water. Payrolls have grown by just 0.2% Y/Y. * Indeed while the unemployment rate drop was suggestive of reduced labor market slack, it was flattered by a decline in the size in the labor force as well as falls in the participation and employment-to-population ratios, as well as the weakest response rate in survey history. * Additionally, growth in average hourly wages continued to decline to fresh post-2021 lows on a Y/Y basis and well off post-pandemic highs. * Taken together, the FOMC will probably be relieved that it has another month to assess the fallout from the Middle East war without being unduly concerned about an imminent collapse in the labor market (for which evidence of near-term war impact is so far scant). * The Committee will continue to see a low-hiring, low-firing labor market that is indicative of being roughly in balance, with the underlying data meaning the debate is set to continue over whether it is weakness in labor supply or demand that has the upper hand. * Indicative of this reinforced wait-and-see stance, market-implied Fed rate cuts were pared in the wake of the report, with Fed funds futures currently seeing just 2bp of cuts in 2026 as we head into the holiday weekend, vs around 6bp pre-report.

MNI US Macro Weekly: The Macro Winds Of War

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260403_f0c4f5c966.pdf [We are unusually publishing this report ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. We will be covering the NFP release as usual in real-time across Friday's shortened trading hours with the full Employment Insight to follow in due course] Executive Summary * About a month into the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict, incoming data suggest that war-related impacts are starting to become more visible, particularly via energy prices, tariffs, and supply chains, though much of March activity data still point to a relatively firm macro starting point. * Growth tracking cooled but remained positive. GDPNow was downgraded due to February trade dragging on growth, though strong capital goods imports and a pickup in equipment investment highlighted a continued business spending tailwind-particularly tied to tech and AI-related demand. * Inflation signals are starting to firm, led by a sharp surge in ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, rising input costs tied to energy, steel, aluminum, and tariffs, and further evidence from PMI surveys that supply chain shocks linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding through to both input and output prices. * Consumer confidence has held up better than feared, but rising inflation expectations and weakening spending components point to subdued real consumption momentum ahead. * With nonfarm payrolls coming this Friday - MNI Preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Mar2026_Preview_f980053271.pdf - latest indicators painted a modest-growth picture of the labor market: with ADP and other payrolls indicators showing steady but unspectacular job gains, jobless claims staying low, and healthcare continuing to account for a disproportionate share of employment growth amid weak hiring elsewhere. * FOMC participants continued to grapple with war-driven uncertainty, with Fedspeak emphasizing patience amid elevated inflation risks and ongoing tension between the dual mandate objectives, though Chair Powell hinted that the Committee's leadership retained its slight easing bias. Amid the uncertainty, rate markets are currently in a holding pattern, seeing about 7bp of cuts through year-end. * Next week's data schedule is busy, with ISM Services on Monday and PCE for February on Thursday. * CPI for March on Friday will give a first look at the direct impact from the surge in energy prices, but it will likely be too early to see broader second round effects. * Meanwhile, the minutes to the FOMC's March 17-18 meeting out Wednesday are likely to reinforce the current "wait and see" approach to policy in a time of elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region