MNI Europe Pi: OAT And Schatz Longs Stand Out

Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P14052026_84ebedeb07.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * While most European bond futures remain in structurally "short" positioning, some longs have emerged and most contracts have moved away from the extreme shorts seen following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. * OAT and Schatz stand out as long. * Now just 4 of 7 contracts are short, vs 6 of 7 in March (Gilt had been the exception). * The latest week of trade has largely seen short-setting, however. * GERMANY: German positioning is now not entirely in structural short territory, with Schatz at long. Bobl remains short but had been drifting toward flat territory through mid-April before reverting; Bund and Buxl haven't shifted at all in nearly 2 months and remain very much "short". The latest week saw short-setting across all four German contracts. * OAT: OAT structural positioning has moved to very long in the last few weeks, versus short in most of the prior 6 months. The latest week's trade was indicative of long reduction. * GILT: Gilt structural short positioning has emerged in recent days, having been largely flat for most of the prior 2 months. The latest week saw some short setting. * BTP: BTP positioning is currently flat, in stark contrast to its familiar long positioning prior to March and recent foray into "short". The last week saw some long-setting.

MNI EGB Supply Daily - 14 May, 2026

Italy and Portugal will hold their non-competitive auction rounds today.

MNI US Inflation Insight: Energy And Services Pack A Punch

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_May2026_7914be7693.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Soaring energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East continued to punctuate the overall strength in inflation in April. Consumer price inflation was slightly hotter than expected, with some unexpected softness in core goods offset by strong services dynamics - but headline producer price inflation was scorching (less so on core). Overall, sequential core PCE looks to have been relatively steady in April vs March and won't allay the FOMC's growing concerns that the dual mandate balancing act is turning decisively to an inflation-fighting battle. * The sequential pickup in core CPI % M/M in April (to 0.38% vs 0.36% consensus from 0.20% in March) was largely driven by services, while headline registered 0.64% M/M (vs 0.56% consensus, 0.87% prior), driven by a continued surge in energy and a pickup in food prices. * The pickup in services was primarily due to the doubling of housing's contribution to core CPI, to 0.23pp from 0.11pp. This was expected given April's methodological quirk that pays back for last October's missing data due to the government shutdown and will reverse next month. * But even outside of that, services printed on the high side: Core services excl OER & primary rents ('supercore'): 0.454% M/M after 0.179% prior, around the middle of a very wide range of expectations. * Conversely, with the exception of apparel, core goods CPI inflation was surprisingly tepid in April, with our estimate of median inflation echoing this. * The main inflation gauges in the April PPI report substantially exceeded expectations, with the details not offering much comfort either. The headline final demand PPI came in at 1.4% M/M, well above the 0.5% consensus and the Y/Y reading at a post-2022 high 6.0% (4.8% expected). Mitigating the impact of the report is that a large portion of the overall rise was in trade services, meaning that the main core aggregate - ex-food/energy/trade services - was closer to the expected mark at 0.6% M/M (consensus 0.3%) though the Y/Y gauge rose to 4.4% (4.2% consensus), the highest since Feb 2023. * Analyst estimates for April core PCE were little changed but mostly lower after the PPI report, with the subcomponents seen as mixed. With expectations for core PCE after the CPI report having centered around 0.31% M/M, they now appear to be closer to 0.30%, similar to March's 0.29%. * The CPI/PPI combo failed to move the needle much on Fed pricing, with futures currently implying 9-10bp of cumulative Fed tightening by year-end, the same as just prior to the CPI release Tuesday. That said, it kept the broader uptrend in place, with expectations briefly at 11bp following the PPI report.

MNI EGB Supply Daily - 13 May, 2026

Ireland and Lithuania are both due to hold syndications today while Italy, Germany and Portugal will all hold auctions.