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All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

Latest insights

EM $ indices were marginally wider (+0.3bp) having set new yearly tights the week before.

Jul-11 08:06

A weekly wrap of some of the key data outcomes/macro themes for the Asia Pac region.

Jul-11 06:02

MNI discusses the outlook for China's steel market.

Jul-11 03:35

A former senior RBA official shares his view on the RBA's new voting structure.

Jul-10 23:29

Central Bank of Brazil former deputy governor for international affairs Tony Volpon speaks with MNI in an interview.

Jul-10 20:52

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly discusses her economic outlook on MNI Connect.

Jul-10 19:01

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FI Market Analysis

European bond futures positioning is as mixed as we have seen it in 2025, with BTPs very long and Gilts very short.

July 07, 2025 01:52

European bond futures positioning is as mixed as we have seen it in 2025, with BTPs very long and Gilts very short.

July 07, 2025 01:50

A somewhat robust payrolls report sees near-term Fed rate cut odds slashed with the Fed still in "wait and see" mode

July 04, 2025 04:24

The EU is scheduled to hold a syndication while the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Portugal and Italy will hold auctions

July 04, 2025 02:48

FX Market Analysis

We think that the market is looking at the wrong measure of reserves when discussing the BOE’s September APF decision

July 04, 2025 01:59

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region

July 04, 2025 05:53

GBP STIRs have pulled away from dovish session extremes given the adjustment in Fed pricing after the U.S. data. * SONIA futures flat to +5.5, with the strip bull flattening. * SFIZ5 & Z6 pierced respective May 9 & May 8 high before a retrace. Bulls will now look to target wider May highs in those contracts. * BoE-dated OIS hasn't been able to push consistently beyond 55bp of cuts through year-end, with markets probably needing to see greater deterioration in the labour market/a swifter than expected moderation in inflation to be comfortable with discounting a meaningful deviation from the once per quarter cutting cycle that has become familiar in recent months. * Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor are due tomorrow. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) Aug-25 4.005 -21.3 Sep-25 3.931 -28.6 Nov-25 3.758 -46.0 Dec-25 3.665 -55.2 Feb-26 3.531 -68.7 Mar-26 3.495 -72.2

July 01, 2025 03:05

Firmer-than-expected JOLTs job data and a still elevated prices paid component in the ISM manufacturing survey applies hawkish pressure, countering the dovish input from Fed Chair Powell ahead of the data and outweighing a soft employment sub-component within the ISM survey. * Powell's focus on the Fed's mandate, as opposed to President Trump's critique, could be a supplementary factor. * 5bp of cuts priced into FOMC-dated OIS for this month, 28bp through September, 45bp through October and 64.5bp through year-end. Contracts are 1-3 less dovish vs. pre-data levels. * December pricing has retraced back within the range witnessed over the prior 3 sessions. * Implied terminal rate pricing on the SOFR futures strip sits at 3.11%, after printing at ~3.00% during the London morning (SFRZ6 hit the highest level seen since early May).

July 01, 2025 02:26