MNI BOE Review - November 2025: Where is the bar for December?

We look in detail at the new short-term data projections and think that if data comes in line a December cut is likely.

MNI US Macro Weekly: Alternative Labor Data Mostly Disappoint

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_251107_a70dd27625.pdf * Our mantra throughout the increasingly lengthy federal government data blackout has been: no "official" data, no problem. There's been enough "alternative" data to get a sense of underlying economic currents even without the touchstone nonfarm payrolls and GDP releases, and overall they continue to suggest solid economic activity but a continued slow cooling in the labor market. * ADP employment was firmer than expected for October and the NFIB jobs report showed little deterioration on the small business front, but most other labor releases have disappointed, most notably a negative Revelio labs nonfarm payrolls estimate and a spike in job cut announcements in the Challenger report. * The ISM mfg survey for October underwhelmed across the board, undershooting regional Fed surveys, the MNI Chicago PMI and what continues to be a much more optimistic S&P Global PMI. New orders disappointed a bounce seen elsewhere and prices paid fell to the lowest since January. * However, the ISM services report was the strongest overall since early in the year, with its headline index rising 2.4pts to 52.4 for an 8-month high. This easily exceeded the expectation and came with improvements in most of the key subcomponents, though employment remained weak and there were signs of continuing acute inflationary pressures. * The preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for November saw a sharp decline in consumer sentiment as the perception of current conditions slid to their lowest on record. We continue to advise caution with these preliminary surveys as they can be more susceptible to a heavier weighting of certain political affiliation. * Growth tracking looks solid on net though, with the Dallas Fed weekly growth indicator continuing to slow but from high levels whilst the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow sees 4.0% annualized Q3 real GDP growth. * US rates head towards the end of the week at their most dovish of the week, paring some of the hawkish shift after Powell drove uncertainty over a December rate cut at the Oct 29 FOMC press conference. * The week ahead sees a quieter data calendar, with focus likely on the second publication of ADP's new NER Pulse on Tuesday before state-level claims on Thursday. The spike in Challenger layoff announcements this week should have further increased sensitivity to higher claims.

MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for Asia Pac.

MNI Norges Bank Review: November 2025 - No MPR, No Signals

Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.00% in November, fully in line with expectations.