US: Trump's Approval Rating Steady Ahead Of OBBB Survey Data
President Trump’s net approval rating is holding steady in the wake of US strikes on Iran and ahead of polling data registering passage of the GOP’s one big beautiful bill.
- Silver Bulletin notes: “Will the unpopular parts of the bill (like reducing federal funding for food assistance to low-income households) impact Trump’s popularity? If the bill passes and people learn what’s in it, probably. But for now, Donald Trump’s approval rating is holding steady. As of today, 45.2 percent of Americans approve of Donald Trump and 51.1 percent disapprove. That’s a net approval rating of -5.9, compared to -6.9 one week ago.”
- Passage of the OBBB caps a remarkable political winning streak for Trump that has includes air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities resulting in a ceasefire between Iran and Israel; a NATO commitment to increase defence spending; a sharp recovery in US stock indices; a strong June jobs report; a Supreme Court ruling limiting lower courts from issuing injunctions on White House orders; a reduction in migrant encounters at the southern border; a favourable legal settlement with Paramount; and a trade deal with Vietnam.
Figure 1: President Donald Trump's Net Approval Rating
Source: Silver Bulletin
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US TSYS: US Pres Trump on Debt Limit
No reaction in Treasuries, trading near recent session highs after Pres Trump posted on his social media platform that the debt limit "should be ended to prevent economic catastrophe". Trump has been a proponent of raising or eliminating the debt limit since his first term.
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: German Curve Twist Flattens Pre-ECB
European curves flattened Wednesday, with Gilts outperforming Bunds.
- Bunds softened early, with Eurozone services PMI revised up, the German cabinet approving corporate tax cuts, and equities gaining ground. EGB weakness spilled over into Gilts.
- Afternoon moves in Gilts in particular tracked US Treasuries, which were buoyed by soft ADP private payroll and ISM Services data.
- For the session, the German curve twist flattened, with the UK's bull flattening.
- Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads were little changed; BTPs modestly outperformed.
- The ECB meeting, with an expected 25bp cut, is Thursday's focus - MNI's preview is here.
- We also get BoE DMP survey, and appearances by Greene and Breeden.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 1.798%, 5-Yr is up 1.6bps at 2.098%, 10-Yr is up 0.3bps at 2.528%, and 30-Yr is down 1.8bps at 2.999%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.3bps at 4.005%, 5-Yr is down 2.8bps at 4.115%, 10-Yr is down 3.2bps at 4.606%, and 30-Yr is down 4.5bps at 5.322%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.6bps at 96.4bps / French OAT up 0.3bps at 67.3bps
GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3567 @ 16:24 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 1.3418 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3335/3255 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3418, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3255. For bulls, sights are on resistance at 1.3593, the May 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
