MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +3.82M TO 443.1M IN MAR 06 WK

* US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +3.82M TO 443.1M IN MAR 06 WK * US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS -1.35M TO 119.4M IN MAR 06 WK * US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -3.65M TO 249.5M IN MAR 06 WK * US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS +0.12M TO 26.6M BARRELS IN MAR 06 WK * US EIA: SPR +0M TO 415.4M BARRELS IN MAR 06 WK * US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE +1.6% TO 90.8% IN MAR 06 WK

US DATA: Non-Housing Services Categories, Ex-Auto Goods Drive Core CPI Dip

As noted, the pullback in sequential core CPI in February was due almost entirely to softer core services pressures: they contributed 0.20pp to the overall 0.22% core CPI figure, vs 0.29pp in January (when core CPI printed 0.30%). See table in image for more detail. * In turn as implied by the fading of supercore it was primarily non-housing categories that retreated in February, with airfares showing the biggest sequential pullback (contributing 0.06pp less to total core CPI than it did in January). * And as implied by MNI's median core goods CPI metric pulling back in February, it was a broader mix of non-vehicle goods that offset a sequential pickup in vehicles' contributions. * "Other goods" saw a 0.04pp pullback in core CPI contribution in February, with vehicles dragging a little less than they did in January.

US DATA: Rise In Food Underpins Headline CPI, With Firmer Core PCE Readthrough

Headline CPI inflation was exactly in line with expectations in February, at 0.27% M/M (0.17% prior). With core coming in slightly softer than anticipated, this of course implied a stronger contribution from food and energy. * In turn, this was mostly a food story, with prices in this category accelerating to 0.39% (0.1% expected, 0.19% January). * Food at home prices jumped to 0.44% from 0.19% prior, driving the overall gain, with grocery prices appearing to show a significant re-acceleration after some softness between September and November last year (albeit heavily distorted by government shutdown-related methodology issues). There was some pretty wide dispersion in grocery prices with some categories seeing the lowest ever rates of inflation (lunch meats), and others the highest (sugar and sweets). * Problematically for core PCE, for which it is a contributor, CPI food away from home picked up to 0.32% M/M from 0.15% prior for its 2nd highest reading since last June. * Energy developments were largely as expected: motor fuel prices rose 0.8% after -3.2%, though overall energy bounced a little less than anticipated to 0.6% (0.9% median, -1.5% prior). * On the services side, electricity prices (2.5% of the CPI basket) saw the lowest reading since May 2023 at -0.7% M/M (-0.1% prior), helping offset a sharp rise in the relatively smaller utility gas services (3.1% after 1.0%) which is around 0.8% of the CPI basket. * Of course those readings are looking quite stale given the expected jump in energy goods price inflation in March on the back of the conflict in the Middle East.

US DATA: Core Services Inflation Remains Elevated, Mixed PCE Implications

Supercore CPI (services ex-housing) registered a rise of 0.35% in February, well down from 0.59% prior but a little on the hotter side of expectations (0.27%). Overall core services were down to 0.27% (exactly as expected) after 0.39% prior, returning to December's still-elevated level. When we look at the details, there are mixed risks to the core PCE readthrough versus its CPI counterpart. * Airfares (0.9% of CPI basket) came back to earth as expected at 1.4% after January's 6.5%, though lodging (1.3% of CPI basket) posted a slightly bigger upside reversal than anticipated at 1.0% (-0.1% prior), though both of these categories are notoriously volatile. We also note auto insurance (2.7% of CPI) on the soft side of expectations at -0.3% after -0.4% in January. * Note though, airfares and auto insurance coming in on the weaker side won't help bias core PCE estimates lower, since these categories are taken from the PPI report, not CPI. * Medical care services - 7% of the CPI basket - posted a jump to 0.6% after 0.3%, highest since July, led by professional services (0.6% after 0.8%) and hospital/related services (0.9% after 1.0%). This appeared to be a surprise with analysts suggesting that January's burst would be reversed. Dental prices - a core PCE contributor from the CPI report - jumped 1.3% M/M after 0.9% for the biggest rise since July 2025. Note that PCE takes physician services prices and hospital service inflation from the PPI report. * Elsewhere we saw a large drop in recreation services (-0.2% after +0.4%) for the lowest since August 2025 in this category worth 3.2% of the overall CPI basket. Education and communication services (5% of CPI) were relatively steady at 0.3% after 0.4%, but other personal services prices fell 0.2% after +1.6%.