GERMAN DATA: IFO Strength Broad-Based In February

Germany's IFO Business Climate Index rose in February, to 88.6 (vs 88.3 cons, 87.6 January). Both the expectations component (at 90.5, 90.0 cons; 89.6 January) and the current assessment (at 86.7, vs 86.2 cons; 85.7 prior) rose and outperformed against expectations. Across sectors, sentiment in manufacturing, services and construction brightened, while it deteriorated slightly in trade. * The release follows a solid reading of the German January flash PMIs, where the manufacturing reading moving above the neutral 50 figure for the first time in over three years (and marking a 44-month high). The services and composite figures each rose to four-month highs. * Across sectors, the press release notes that: * "In the manufacturing sector, the index rose again. This was due to significantly improved assessments of the current business situation. While expectations dimmed, the order situation developed positively, and production plans were revised upwards." February's manufacturing index level is the highest since May 2024. * "In the service sector, the business climate improved. In particular, expectations brightened. Service providers were also more satisfied with current business. In logistics, the business climate indicator rose significantly." Services has been hovering broadly around neutral since at least the beginning of 2024. * "In the retail sector, the index declined slightly. Companies assessed their current situation somewhat less favorably. However, the outlook for the coming months was revised slightly upwards. While there were slight upward trends in wholesale, sentiment in retail trade deteriorated noticeably." * "In the construction industry, the business climate continued its recovery. Assessments of the current situation were more positive, as were expectations. However, the order situation is improving only slowly."

MNI: ITALY JAN FINAL HICP 1.0% Y/Y (1.0% FLASH, 1.2% DEC)

* MNI: ITALY JAN FINAL HICP 1.0% Y/Y (1.0% FLASH, 1.2% DEC) * ITALY JAN FINAL HICP -1.0% M/M (-1.0% FLASH, 0.2% DEC)

MNI: GERMANY FEB IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 88.6

* MNI: GERMANY FEB IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 88.6

US DATA: New Home Sales End 2025 Strong, But Early 2026 Momentum Doubtful

As with other housing market data, new home sales finished 2025 strong - but it's questionable whether momentum will continue into 2026. * In a combined November/December report (due to federal government shutdown delays), new sales closed the year at 745k on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. They were up 15.5% in November to 758k, thus down 1.7% in December, but those were the two strongest months since February 2022. * Sales soared in the West region, to 170k in December from 110k in October. * Supply tightened, with months of supply down to 7.6 vs 9.0 in October, lowest since March 2022. Median prices were down 2.0% Y/Y, reflective of seller discounts. * But inventories remain elevated on a historical basis. And despite the jump at the end of the year, 2025 as a whole saw average monthly new home sales basically identical to 2024 (682k vs 685k). * And judging from homebuilder sentiment, any improvement looks to have been short-lived. The pullback in the NAHB survey to 36 in February from 37 prior (38 consensus) marked a 5-month low and the 2nd straight decline, suggesting any nascent momentum in homebuilder sentiment has halted (the NAHB had risen in each of the 4 months prior to January). * We continue to expect housing starts/residential construction momentum to remain limited.