Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Data Bullets
For the full preview including summaries of analyst expectations click here.: https://mni.marketnews.com/4kF8YAM * It's a huge week for UK data with labour market data (Tuesday), inflation data (Wednesday) as well as flash PMIs, retail sales and public finance data on Friday. * In terms of market reaction, we think the easiest read is likely to come from labour market data where consensus expectations are aligned with the expectations from the February MPR. There will be one more labour market print ahead of the March MPC decision, but a print in line with expectations keeps a March cut very much in play. * Things are trickier on the inflation side. The Bank's updated staff forecasts put January headline CPI at 2.90%Y/Y which is a full tenth below consensus expectations of 3.0%Y/Y, and it seems as though this is pretty broad-based across categories. We look at the potential for market reaction and also the details of the print. * In addition, we summarise 17 sellside views.
Feb-16 16:41* Dec factory sales +0.6% M/M after two consecutive monthly declines, slightly exceeding the advance estimate of 0.5% indicated last month. * Autos sales +12% M/M in Dec following two back-to-back monthly decreases. The gain came from higher output at a major Ontario auto plant previously limited by chip shortages. * Going against that, the petroleum and coal subsector saw salles fall -5.1% M/M from a combination of both lower prices and volumes. * Looking over 2025 as a whole, manufacturing sales fell -0.4% to C$848.7bn in 2025 after -1.7% in 2024. * Petroleum and coal led 2025 sales declines with -7.1% to C$89.1bn. Additional context from the StatCan press release (in full, link: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260216/dq260216a-eng.htm?HPA= 1): "In the first half of the year, sales were reduced by lower demand for refined petroleum and energy products amid rising trade tensions and global economic uncertainty. In addition, several major refineries underwent maintenance shutdowns during the second quarter. In the second half of the year, refinery capacity increased, and prices for refined petroleum products rose, largely driven by higher diesel fuel prices stemming from tighter global diesel supply. Despite this improvement, total sales in 2025 remained below 2024 levels." * Primary metals sales +6.7% to $71.2bn in 2025 after two consecutive annual declines. "While tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum impacted sales in the subsector, strong growth was reported in the non-ferrous metal (except aluminum) industry group. According to the Industrial Product Price Index, prices of basic and semi-finished products of non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal alloys (except aluminum) rose 21.9% year over year."
Feb-16 14:02
* MNI: CANADA DEC FACTORY SALES +0.6% VS PRIOR -1.2%
Feb-16 13:30* MNI: CANADA DEC FACTORY SALES +0.6% MOM, NEW ORDERS +0.2% * CANADA DEC FACTORY INVENTORIES -1.2%; INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.69
Feb-16 13:30Data Watch
Chicago Business Barometer
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, jumped 11.3 points to 54.0 in January.
January 30, 2026 14:47China MMI
* MNI CHINA MONEY MKT INDEX NOV LQDTY OUTLOOK 51.0 VS OCT 49.0 * MNI CHINA MMI NOV CURRENT LQDTY CONDITIONS 21.0 VS OCT 27.6 * MNI CHINA MMI ECONOMIC CONDITIONS NOV 28.0 VS OCT 30.6
November 26, 2025 07:00Data
| Country | Date | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
 CPI (f) y/y | Feb 17, 07:00 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
CPI (f) m/m | Feb 17, 07:00 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
HICP (f) m/m | Feb 17, 07:00 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
HICP (f) y/y | Feb 17, 07:00 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
 Employment 3-month change | Feb 17, 07:00 | 90.0 | 82.0 |
Unemployment Rate (16+ 1dp) | Feb 17, 07:00 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
Unemployment Rate (16+ 2dp) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 5.09 |
AWE: Private regular pay (3m y/y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | 3.4 | 3.63 |
AWE: Private regular pay (single month y/y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 3.47 |
AWE: Private total pay (3m y/y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 3.94 |
AWE: Whole economy regular pay (3m y/y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | 4.2 | 4.46 |
AWE: Whole economy total pay (3m y/y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | 4.6 | 4.68 |
AWE: Public sector regular pay (3m y/y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 7.93 |
AWE: Public sector total pay (3m y/y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 7.76 |
AWE (Regular Pay), 3mo av y/y% 2dp - Whole Economy (revised prior) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
AWE (Total Pay), 3mo av y/y% 2dp - Whole Economy (revised prior) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
AWE (Regular Pay), monthly y/y% 2dp - Private Sector (revised prior) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
AWE (Regular Pay), 3mo av y/y% 2dp - Private Sector (revised prior) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
AWE (Total Pay), 3mo av y/y% 2dp - Private Sector (revised prior) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
AWE (Regular Pay), 3mo av y/y% 2dp - Public Sector (revised prior) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
AWE (Total Pay), 3mo av y/y% 2dp - Public Sector (revised prior) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Employment Rate (16-64) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 75.09 |
Economic Activity Rate (16-64) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 79.21 |
Unemployment Rate (16+ SA 1dp) - Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Employment Level Change (16+ SA thousands) - Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Unemployment Rate (16+ SA 2dp) - Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Employment Rate (16-64 SA 2dp) - Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Economic Activity Rate (16-64 SA 2dp) - Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Vacancies | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 734.0 |
V/U Ratio | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 0.40 |
PAYE Payrolled Employees (SA) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 30.23 |
PAYE Payrolled Employees monthly change (SA) | Feb 17, 07:00 | -20.0 | -42.6 |
PAYE Payrolled Employees 3-month change (SA) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | -92.2 |
PAYE Payrolled Employees 6-month change (SA) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | -109.2 |
PAYE Payrolled Employees 12-month change (SA) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | -184.1 |
PAYE Median Monthly Pay (Y/Y) | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 4.03 |
Claimant Count Rate | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 4.4 |
Claimant Count Change | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | 17.9 |
Claimant Count Change - Prior Revised | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
PAYE Payrolled Employees (SA Millions) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
PAYE Payrolled Employees monthly change (SA Thousands) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
PAYE Payrolled Employees 3-month change (SA Thousands) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
PAYE Payrolled Employees 6-month change (SA Thousands) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
PAYE Payrolled Employees 12-month change (SA Thousands) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
PAYE Median Monthly Pay (Y/Y) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Vacancies (SA thousands) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
V/U Ratio (SA 2dp) - Revised Prior | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
Claimant Count Rate - Prior Revised | Feb 17, 07:00 | - | - |
ZEW Expectations Index | Feb 17, 10:00 | 65.2 | 59.6 |
ZEW Current Conditions Index | Feb 17, 10:00 | -65.9 | -72.7 |
 Empire Manufacturing Index | Feb 17, 13:30 | 6.2 | 7.7 |
 Intl Securities Transactions | Feb 17, 13:30 | - | 16.328 |
Headline CPI m/m | Feb 17, 13:30 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
Headline CPI y/y | Feb 17, 13:30 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
Median CPI y/y | Feb 17, 13:30 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Trim CPI y/y | Feb 17, 13:30 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
Wholesale Sales | Feb 17, 13:30 | - | -1.9 |
NAHB Home Builder Index | Feb 17, 15:00 | 38.0 | 37.0 |
Brightmine 3M Pay Deal | Feb 18, 00:01 | - | 3.7 |
Brightmine 3M Pay Deal (prev) | Feb 18, 00:01 | - | - |
