EUROZONE DATA: Manufacturing PMI Confirms 44-Month High, EC Survey Less Rosy

The Eurozone manufacturing PMIs were unrevised in the final February print despite upward revisions for Germany and France, broadly reinforcing manufacturing convergence across the main bloc members. The main manufacturing index hit a 44-month high, albeit still only just a little above the 50-mark, although expectations also touched their highest since Feb 2022. The separate industry survey from the European Commission continues to paint a more restrained picture however. * The Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unrevised at 50.8 in the final February print after 49.5 in January, confirming a second solid monthly increase to a 44-month high. * Highlighting an improvement to still only tepid levels, it has been 50.0 or higher in three months of the past three years and all since Aug 2025. * The no revision came despite 0.2pt upward revisions for both Germany (50.9) and France (50.1), implying a smaller but still solid monthly improvement in non-German/France manufacturing sentiment. * The Ger/Fra and other country aggregates have largely converged, with Ger/Fra rising from 49.6 to 50.7 in February vs 49.3 to 50.9 for other countries. The latter see broadly similar readings across Italy (50.6), Spain (50.0) and the Netherlands (50.8) whilst Greece (54.4) and Ireland (53.1) outperform. * The S&P Global press release: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c4a5714a5217464b8f5bab9 8782645f0 notes "a fresh rise in new orders drove a sharper expansion in factory production. Expectations for output in the coming year also strengthened, with goods producers across the currency bloc their most optimistic towards growth prospects since February 2022." * "That said, there were further signs of building price pressures as input cost inflation accelerated for a third month on the bounce to its highest in just over three years. Factory gate charges were subsequently increased, and to an extent not seen since March 2023." * This caveated improvement in the S&P Global manufacturing PMIs go somewhat against the European Commission's industry survey, which has been improving in relative terms but at -7.1 in February remaind below its zero breakeven level. Within the latter, the past production component has almost return to flat (-0.2 in Feb for its highest since 1.8 in Oct 2025 and before that Apr 2023) but order book levels are still heavily depressed at -21.1. * Along with Wednesday's final services readings, these are the last PMI releases before the ECB decision on Mar 18.

UK DATA: Jan Mortgage Lending Weaker Than Expected, Approvals Nearly Unchanged

Seasonally-adjusted new mortgage approvals were basically unchanged in January (falling 1k, but a softer drop than December for four consecutive falls), alongside a weaker-than-expected net lending on dwellings figure, today's BOE money and credit data showed. Net consumer credit, however, was a touch stronger than consensus. The passthrough of December's rate cut to mortgages continued, with small decreases to average mortgage rates across the maturity profile. * New mortgage approvals fell 1k to 60k in January (lowest since Jan 2024), a touch below consensus of 62k, while net mortgage lending fell notably to GBP4.076bln (GBP4.6bln cons) vs GBP4.492bln in December. This was the lowest since May 2025, which was driven by Stamp Duty changes at the time leading to frontloading of home sales. * We noted last month that mortgage approvals saw weakness beyond the usual seasonality, despite a stronger net lending figure. This month, both look to be on the weaker side but the dip in mortgage approvals is very soft. Still, we wouldn't read too much into this given the resilience seen through most of 2025 - at the very least this could offer tentative signs of slowing demand following said resilience. * Net consumer credit, however, was a touch stronger than expected, growing GBP1.81bln in January (GBP1.7bln cons), though from a ~0.2bln upward revised GBP1.7bln in December. Within this, the press release notes: "net borrowing through credit cards was GBP0.9bln in January, up from GBP0.8bln in December. Net borrowing through other forms of consumer credit (such as car dealership finance and personal loans) remained unchanged at GBP0.9bln in January." * Average mortgage rates again fell slightly across the maturity profile (-0.02 to -0.06ppt) on a 75% LTV basis, continuing the passthrough of December's Bank Rate cut. Now, those remortgaging from 2-year or 3-year fixed rate mortgages onto the same term would see drops to their borrowing costs around 0.85ppt (a smaller drop than in previous months), while the gap is broadly unchanged for 5-year fixed rate mortgages (~2ppt increase if remortgaging now). * "The 'effective' interest rate - the actual interest paid - on newly drawn mortgages decreased, to 4.09% in January from 4.15% in December." * Also in the release, M4 money supply growth slowed to -0.1% M/M, 3.0% Y/Y (vs 0.4% M/M [revised up 0.1ppt], 4.7% Y/Y Dec).

EUROZONE DATA: Bank of Italy Euro-coin Advances To 3.5-Year High

The Bank of Italy's Euro-coin indicator (nowcast for EZ Q/Q trend growth) was 0.54 in February, up from 0.49 in December, the highest since June 2022. Over the last seven months the indicator has trended upwards ever so slightly. The press release notes that "the indicator continues to be boosted by the confidence of manufacturing firms and by a moderate improvement in demand indicators". * Bloomberg's Q1 2026 GDP nowcast (which aims to predict actual, not trend, growth) stands at 0.52% most recently. However, note this nowcast softened into quarter end in both Q3 and Q4 2025. * The third estimate of the Eurozone Q4 national accounts confirmed the flash GDP reading at 0.3% Q/Q which had been above consensus and ECB expectations of 0.2%, with an improvement in productivity being behind the stronger-than-expected reading. * The ECB sees quarterly growth at 0.3% in Q1 and 0.4% during the remaining three quarters of the year, supported by the German fiscal expansion and improved private consumption trends. Source: Bank of Italy

MNI: UK FEB FINAL MANUF PMI 51.7 (52.0 FLASH, 51.8 JAN)

* MNI: UK FEB FINAL MANUF PMI 51.7 (52.0 FLASH, 51.8 JAN)