FRANCE DATA: IP Rebounds in Jan, Solely Due to Strong Transport Equipment Bounce

More detail on this morning's French IP: we saw a rebound in Jan at 0.5% M/M (0.4% cons, -0.5% prior, revised up 0.2ppt), but almost entirely due to a strong rebound in transport equipment (after a sharp pullback in December, revised even lower), while all other manufacturing categories saw negative M/M growth. The transport equipment category has been the main driver of the headline number as of late. We note that the momentum of the series has picked up only slightly, after slowing decently in the latter half of 2025. * The strong rebound in the manufacture of transport equipment (9.9% M/M after -12.8%, revised down ~3ppt) was again driven by "other transport equipment" (19.1% M/M after -20.1%, revised down ~4.5ppt). * While a rebound here could have been expected, the extent of it does appear surprising, and is helped further by the downward revisions to December (despite an upward revision to the overall IP index). * INSEE notes that the rebound in "other transport equipment" was "more specifically in aerospace manufacturing", and while it's not clear what exactly drove this, we note that, based on GDP commentary, it may be the case that the January bounce is linked to December factory maintenance between projects after the completion and delivery of an ocean liner (which had negatively impacted Q4 GDP through an inventory drawdown on delivery). * All other broad sectors saw negative (and more modest) M/M rates, aside from mining, quarrying and water which fell 0.1ppt to stand flat M/M. INSEE writes: "production declined in all other sectors [except transport]: it contracted in "other industrial products (metallurgy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, etc.)" (-0.9% after +1.2%), the food processing industries (-0.8% after +1.9%), the manufacture of electrical, electronic and computer equipment (-0.5% after +1.9%), and it fell again in coking and refining (-3.4% after -0.9%). In the extractive, energy, and water industries, production remained stable, following a 0.1% increase the previous month." * Year-on-year, IP grew 2.4% Y/Y (2.3% cons, 1.6% prior, revised down 0.1ppt), for the strongest rate since Sep 2022, while manufacturing output grew 2.7% Y/Y (2.1% prior), also the highest since Sep 2022. While these are the strongest annual rates for some time, they are helped by a relatively weak monthly reading in Jan 2025. * We noted last month that momentum in the series had been slowing to end 2025, and it has only picked up slightly in this reading, with 3M/3M growth at 0.1% 3M/3M, up from flat in Dec and Nov. * INSEE also notes seasonal and working day adjustment revisions, as well as methodology updates in sectors whose production is tracked by hours worked (using data from 2025 national accounts), and adding/removing products from calculations. All up, this led to minor revisions to the series since Jan 2022.

MNI: EUROZONE JAN RETAIL SALES -0.1% M/M (0.2% DEC, REV FROM -0.5%)

* MNI: EUROZONE JAN RETAIL SALES -0.1% M/M (0.2% DEC, REV FROM -0.5%) * EUROZONE JAN RETAIL SALES 2.0% Y/Y (1.8% DEC, REV FROM 1.3%)

UK DATA: Little in the DMP data to swap any MPC member's vote

The big picture in the DMP data is that it paints a very similar picture to last month's report. There isn't likely to be anything in here that will sway any MPC member's vote: * Wages: UK 1-year ahead wage expectations were broadly in line with last month while realised wage growth was higher on the single month (but showed a marginal slowdown on the 3-month average measure. * Employment: Both expected and realised a bit higher than previously on the 3-month measure, but the single month realised measure was still low at -0.71%Y/Y. * CPI expectations: Both 1/3-year ahead lower than previously on the 3-month measure (but the single month measures are both marginally higher than in Jan).

MNI: UK FEB CONSTRUCTION PMI 44.5 (47.0 EXP, 46.4 JAN)

* MNI: UK FEB CONSTRUCTION PMI 44.5 (47.0 EXP, 46.4 JAN)