MNI: US JAN CONSUMER CREDIT +$8.0B

* MNI: US JAN CONSUMER CREDIT +$8.0B * US JAN REVOLVING CREDIT +$4.7B * US JAN NONREVOLVING CREDIT +$3.3B

CANADA DATA: Ivey PMI Points To Growth Consolidating At Low Level

The jump in the Ivey PMI to 56.6 in February from 50.9 prior marked a 5-month high in the index and an apparent resumption to upward momentum after January's 1 point decline. * The 3-month average rose to a 3-month high 53.1 from 50.4. This measure has been a decent guide to overall GDP, which contracted 0.6% in Q4 but looks to be experiencing a bit of an uptick in Q1 (considering also recent solidity in S&P PMI, particularly Manufacturing) at a still-slow pace. * The details were mixed. The prices gauge fell 1.4 points to 63.4 (still-elevated), but employment fell 1.7 points to 49.4 (below 50 for the first time in 3 months). Supplier deliveries fell 4 points to 45.2 (8-month low) with inventories jumping 6.3 points to a 40-month high 57.2 (boosting the overall figure).

US DATA: Payrolls Wrap: Weak And Volatile But Trend U/E Rate Broadly Stable

* Key figures in both the establishment and household surveys disappointed in the February payrolls report although it must be seen in the context of strong January report. Indeed, even the most dovish FOMC member, Governor Miran, cautioned against reading too much into one month's job report. * It still acts as a dovish surprise though as it firmly pushes back on any more optimistic views of the labor market going into this report. * The themes broadly flagged ahead of the report were as expected although the magnitude was surprising. There were two healthcare-related hits, one fully expected (31k strikes) and one less so (potential reversal after a severe flu season in January), whilst adverse weather might well have played a role but was still hard to square away the extent of industries reporting job losses. * Nonfarm payrolls fell -92k (cons 55k) after 126k as part of heavy negative revisions of -69k, leaving a three-month average of 6k and six-month average of -1k. Private payrolls fell -86k (cons 60k) after 146k with a three-month average of 18k and six-month average of 34k, whilst private ex health & social assistance sees a three-month average of -29k and six-month of -16k after sizeable declines last year. * The household survey brought some meaningful surprises and oddities, in terms of both the monthly data and the annual population control revisions. Understanding February dynamics depends largely on figuring in the annual revisions, though overall February's household report looked largely weak. * For a household survey bottom line, the u/e rate surprised higher in Feb at 4.44% (cons 4.3 with dovish risk tilted to a 4.4) after an upward revised but what would still have surprised lower 4.32% in Jan. The latter was first reported at 4.28% vs then consensus of 4.4%, before unusually being revised with the delayed population control back on January levels. * Average the two monthly prints and the 4.38% sits between the heavily caveated 4.47% averaged in Q4 (government shutdown disruption) and 4.34% in Q3. * That broad stability continues to defy a scenario that the most dovish FOMC members had envisaged back in the December SEP (seven members pencilled in an u/e rate at 4.6-4.7% in 4Q25), with some of these prominent members since dialling back cut calls/rhetoric over the past month. * In a reminder of the risk in putting too much weight on single reports, response rates were at best mixed. The household survey response rate increased from three months of record lows but remains depressed and leaves it prone to higher than usual month-to-month volatility, whilst first responses for payrolls data slid back to very low levels and leave scope for larger revisions. * Whilst heavily clouded by today's surge in WTI futures (1st currently nearing +13% on the day) and two-way swings in rates since the release, there has been a net dovish shift with June Fed Funds implied rates 4bp lower post-release and Dec 8bp lower. A next Fed cut is seen in September in a close call with July (22bp) and with 45bp of cuts seen for 2026.

US DATA: Lowest Actual February Hiring Since 2010 After January Improvement

* It's not particularly surprising considering the heavy seasonally adjusted decline in nonfarm payrolls in February (-92k on the month) but non-seasonally adjusted hiring was the softest for a February since 2010, with the level of nonfarm payrolls increasing by 23% since then. * 563k jobs were added vs 775k in Feb 2025 and a ten-year average of 1.06mln including a high of 1.7mln in Feb 2022 on post-pandemic re-hiring. * It goes against January's smaller-than-usual outright job losses of 2.64mln vs 2.91mln in Jan 2025 and a ten-year average of 2.84mln. * There are grounds to average the two months when comparing recent relative trends. Indeed, there's an additional consideration behind this monthly volatility from the birth/death model. This from JPMorgan: "Last month, we observed that the new birth/death model could be amplifying monthly volatility and probably contributed to the outsize January gain, with the possibility of payback in February. In line with that, the birth/death addition for February was smaller than in the same month of prior years, running 46k below last year and 60k below the average of the prior five years. In January, the gap to prior years was about the same magnitude but with the opposite sign." * The Feb 2026 seasonal factor was slightly more favorable than in Feb 2025 when it weighed by its most on the seasonally adjusted level of payrolls in at least the past forty years. The slight improvement compared to a year ago was worth about 26k on the month.