MNI: US 21-FEB INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 212K (208K 14-FEB)

* MNI: US 21-FEB INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 212K (208K 14-FEB) * US 14-FEB CONTINUING CLAIMS 1833K (1864K 07-FEB)

UK DATA: Young People NEET Still Below Q4-24; Getting More Political Attention

The level and proportion of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET), increased in Q4 2025 compared to the previous quarter, in ONS data released today. The proportion still remains below the level seen in Q4 2024, but we note a decent upward trend since COVID, which has stabilised slightly through 2025 at levels higher the post-GFC and pre-Covid average. * In Q4 2025, an estimated 12.8% of young people (aged 16-24) were not in education, employment or training, a 0.1ppt increase from Q3 25, but down 0.4ppt year-on-year. In level terms, there were 957k NEET in Q4 25, up 11k on the quarter. * Behind the year-on-year fall, we note that Q4 2024 marked the highest proportion of young people NEET since Q4 2014, after a fairly steep upward trend starting Q2 2021 (when the proportion was at its lowest on record, 9.7%). * We are now close to the series average of 13.0% (since Q4 2001), but above the 11.5% average seen between 2015-2019. * This is starting to become more a political issue with younger people's economic concerns beginning to gain more traction. There are some concerns that raising the minimum wage for younger workers will make them less attractive to hire as it makes employers less likely to take a chance on a cheaper inexperienced employee (the Labour policy is to gradually increase it to the same level as older adults). * There are also concerns that other government policy such as increasing employers NIC contributions are making hiring managers question needs to increase employment while technologies such as AI will potentially shift towards more capital investment with less labour need. * There is some potential that some of these concerns may be addressed by Chancellor Reeves in the Spring Statement next week, but thus far its hard to see concrete effects of policy showing up in the data.

ITALY DATA: Business Confidence Slips, Consumer Confidence Broad-Based Strength

Italy's business confidence index slipped 0.3 points to 97.4 in February, after five consecutive rises. Falls in services and manufacturing confidence were only partially offset by rises in retail and construction confidence. Consumer confidence grew by more than expected to 97.4 (97.0 cons, 96.8 Jan), again seeing broad-based strength. * We have noted for the last two months that services have driven the headline business confidence number, and it looks to be the main driver of the drop here: services confidence fell 1.3 points to 102.2, but only partially unwinding January's strong rise (which was revised up 0.1 point). * Within services, "negative developments were mainly due to the assessments on order book level and - to a lesser extent - to deteriorated opinions on the current business trend. Conversely, expectations expressed by operators on the future order book level continued to improve, albeit slightly", writes Istat. * Manufacturing confidence meanwhile dropped 0.7 points to 88.5, against consensus of a rise to 89.6, reversing January's rise. "Respondents claimed to be newly concerned both on current order books [-19.3 from -18.1] and on future production [2.7 from 3.2]", notes Istat. Manufacturing inventories also rose slightly again (to 2.5 from 2.1). * Partially offsetting these falls: retail confidence grew strongly to 105.1 (102.5 Jan), but still below December's high. Construction confidence progressed to 103.1 (99.9 Jan, revised up 0.1 point), * Consumer confidence grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.6 points to 97.4 (97.0 cons), marking three straight rises, and again driven by increases in all subcomponents: "the economic climate bettered from 97.4 to 99.1, the future one from 92.3 to 93.1, the current one from 100.1 to 100.7, and, finally, the personal one from 96.6 to 96.8."

EUROZONE DATA: Weak German NFC Credit Developments In January

German non-financial corporate (NFC) credit growth was weak in January. Although other growth signals are improving in the Eurozone's largest economy (e.g. yesterday's GDP report details, Tuesday's IFO reading and recent monthly fiscal releases), a lack of improvement in private sector credit would suggest the Government's spending push is not yet crowding in private investment to the extent hoped. * German NFC credit growth fell 0.7% Y/Y in January, after 0.0% in December and 0.5% in November. Household lending growth was unchanged at 2.0%. That left the 3mth vs 3mth year ago credit impulse at -1.0% GDP, the weakest since June 2024. The 12mth vs 12mth prior impulse also softened to 0.1% GDP (vs 0.4% prior). * Elsewhere, NFC lending growth was broadly steady in France and Italy, but decelerated a little in Spain (3.8% Y/Y vs 4.2% prior). Household credit growth was little changed across those three economies. * At the Eurozone-wide level, NFC lending growth (adjusted for sales and securitisations) eased to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 3.0% prior), while household growth was unchanged at 3.0%. The 3mth vs 3mth year ago credit impulse eased to a 20-month low of 0.2% GDP (vs 0.8% prior), while the 12mth impulse was 1.0% (vs 1.2% prior). * On a seasonally adjusted basis, the chart below highlights the abrupt fall in total NFC credit flows in January. * M3 money supply growth was 3.3% (vs 2.9% cons, 2.8% prior).