US DATA: Chicago CARTS Points To Strong Core Retail Sale Dynamics In October

The Chicago Fed's final CARTS estimate for October ex-autos/parts retail sales is for 0.39% M/M growth, up from 0.30% they estimated for September. * Of course we haven't yet gotten the Census Bureau's official September data due to the federal government shutdown, and Friday's advance release for October is almost certain to be postponed. * In the meantime we have other proxies for retail sales growth over the last couple of months and for the most part they've been solid, including CARTS and Redbook weekly sales. * Though the ex-autos sales figures would represent a slowdown from 0.66% in August, and vehicle sales look to have fallen sharply in October (due largely to expiring government EV incentives) which will depress headline sales, "core" retail sales continue to grow at an elevated rate going into Q3. * If the CARTS estimates are correct, then ex-autos retail sales grew at a 6.3% quarterly (3M/3M) annualized rate in October, which would be the fastest since October 2023 and a pickup from the 3.5% recorded in June (Q2). * That's in nominal and not real terms, but suggests no discernable letup in consumption overall, even when inflation-adjusted. * As the chart below shows, ex-autos are a good proxy for the GDP-input Control Group retail sales (which exclude auto sales, the largest single retail category), and suggests some of the strongest growth in years in that category continues.

EUROZONE DATA: August IP Sees Weak Consumer Goods, Likely With Irish Noise

Euro area industrial production underperformed expectations in September, edging higher at 0.2% M/M (0.7% cons; -1.1% August, revised from -1.2%). An upward impact from energy was offset by weakness in consumer goods production - which would be consistent with pharma volatility from Ireland. * The Y/Y reading saw its second consecutive reading at 1.2%, also underperforming vs consensus (of 2.0%) after oscillating between 0.3% and 3.0% since February. It continues to point to tepid production growth. * Ireland saw some of its usual volatility (-9.4% M/M vs 9.5% prior), dragging down the print, as the 'big 4' countries all saw a positive month sequentially with Germany at 1.9%, France at 0.8%, Italy at 2.8% and Spain at 0.4% (all M/M). * The weak Ireland print may well be the driver behind the weak consumer goods production considering the pharmaceutical industry in the country. Non-durable consumer goods were the main underperformer in September in the Eurozone, at -2.6% M/M (-0.1% prior). * Elsewhere, energy was strong this time, at 1.2% M/M (-0.2% prior), while capital goods and intermediate goods production both printed 0.3% M/M (1.2% prior). * Looking ahead to October, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in exactly at the neutral 50.0 mark, whilst its output sub-component at 51.0 was a two-month high and implied expanding output for the 8th consecutive month. However, the "pace of growth remained mild amid stagnant new orders and lower employment".

MNI: EUROZONE SEP IP +0.2% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y (VS -1.1% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y AUG)

* MNI: EUROZONE SEP IP +0.2% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y (VS -1.1% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y AUG)

MNI: CHINA JAN-OCT NEW LOANS CNY14.97 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY15.25 TRLN

* CHINA JAN-OCT NEW LOANS CNY14.97 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY15.25 TRLN * CHINA END-OCT M2 +8.2% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.1%; END-SEP +8.4% Y/Y * CHINA END-OCT M1 +6.2% Y/Y VS +7.2% Y/Y END-SEP * CHINA END-OCT M0 +10.6% Y/Y VS +11.5% Y/Y END-SEP * CHINA JAN-OCT TSF CNY30.9 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY31.92 TRLN