US DATA: Two JOLTS Reports Scheduled For Next Month

* The BLS has added two JOLTS reports for next month, with the January report on Mar 13 before the February report on Mar 31. JOLTS schedule here (link: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm). A recap of last week's market-moving report: Far Lower Than Expected JOLTS Job Openings In December Job openings were far weaker than expected in the JOLTS report and stand out against an alternate measure such as Indeed job postings. Other areas fared better such as the tick higher in hire rates and quit rates holding onto a prior increase although they are still low historically, hires especially. * Job openings were significantly lower than expected in December at 6542k (sa, cons 7250k) after a downward revised 6928k in Nov (initial 7146k). * Job openings have now declined by 1.1mln since the end-September, i.e. since just before the Oct 1 - Nov 12 government shutdown. * As noted beforehand, Indeed job postings had shown an improvement relative to end November, rising 1.1% by end-Dec, even if that was then mostly reversed by end-Jan with a net 0.3% increase. * They had presumably helped shape consensus view, with the JOLTS outturn far weaker even than that implied by the more volatile but timely new postings data also from Indeed - see chart. * The ratio of opening to unemployed slipped to 0.87 in December from a downward revised 0.89 (0.92) for a fresh low since early 2021. The ratio avoided a sharper drop due to the sharp decline in household unemployment in December after a potential upward bias in Nov data after the government shutdown. * Pre-pandemic, it last saw 0.9 readings in 2017 having averaged 1.2 in 2019 and 1.0 in 2017-18. Other key metrics meanwhile were flat to slightly better on the month. * The quits rate came in at 2.01% in Dec after an upward revised 2.00% (initial 1.98) in Nov, confirming an improvement to 2.0 for its highest since June having hit 1.86% in October (lowest since May 2020). * It's a relative improvement though, with quit rates still depressed compared to pre-pandemic levels in an additional sign of a lack of labor market churn (it averaged 2.3% in 2019, 2.2% in 2017-18). * The hires rate firmed to 3.32% from an unrevised 3.21%, although is clearly still low - the 3.21% in Nov was its lowest hire rate since Aug (also 3.21%), one month in the pandemic (3.09% in Apr 2020) and then back to 2012. * Fed officials, most notably Powell, have been eager to warn that this low hire rate could see any further cooling in the labor market drive a sharper increase in the unemployment rate.

US DATA: Almost Half Of CPI Basket Increased 3% Y/Y Or Faster In January

Start-of-year price resets appear to have helped see a further increase in the breadth of inflationary pressures within core goods in January, with an estimated 41% of core goods items rising 3% Y/Y or faster vs 13% a year ago. * 46% of ~190 items across the CPI basket saw price increases of 3% Y/Y or higher in January, up from 41% in Dec, 36% in Nov and 40% in Sep. It's a fresh high since Nov 2023. * This share averaged 24% in 2019 or 19% over a longer 2015-19 period. * Whereas the increase in the share back in December was concentrated in the 3-4% bracket, the January appears driven by those in the >5% bracket, up from 16% to 21% for its highest also since Nov 2023. It started 2025 at 12%. * Within the core basket, 41% of core goods items increased at least 3% Y/Y in Jan vs 33% in Dec, 25% in Nov and 28% in Sep for a fresh high since Oct 2023. It started 2025 at 13% and averaged 18.5% in 2019 or 12% over 2015-19. * Core services saw a smaller increase which only offset December's dip, rising back to 59% from 56%. It most recently peaked at 64% in August and compares with historical averages of 38% in 2019 or 34% in 2015-19.

US DATA: Underlying Core Goods Inflation Matches Previous Mid-2025 Peak

Our calculation of median core goods inflation accelerated in January to 0.44% M/M, matching the previous peak back in June in what had previously looked like the largest tariff impulse landed in mid-2025. It does however follow a weak Q4 patch with government shutdown-driven distortions. * Adding to our earlier post on "Used Car CPI Drop Disguises Broader Core Goods Pressures", our calculation of median core goods inflation chalked up a firm 0.44% M/M increase. * This accelerated from a moderate 0.10% M/M in December and an average increase of just 0.04% M/M across Oct/Nov in shutdown-disrupted figures (not least with the later than usual November survey period catching holiday discounts before surprisingly limited bounceback in December). * In contrast, the actual core goods inflation series increased only 0.04% M/M in January after 0.03% M/M in Dec and an average 0.03% M/M across Oct/Nov. Indeed, whilst core goods was 0.04%, core goods ex used cars was strong at 0.36% M/M. * Before that Q4 soft patch, our median averaged a solid and quite consistent 0.28% M/M through Q3 (revised down from 0.31% with today's seasonal adjustment revisions) after peaking at 0.43% M/M in June (0.44 pre-revision). * As such, it suggests some renewed upward pressure in underlying core goods inflation rather than what looked like a previous peak impulse from tariff cost pressures coming back in June, with this latest print suggesting broader usage of start-of-year price resets. * The 0.44% M/M for median core goods inflation is notable compared to the 0.07% from Jan 2025, 0.12% in Jan 2024 and 0.33% in Jan 2023. Go back further and you're in the peak inflationary period of late 2021/early 2022 when the median saw 0.84% M/M in Jan 2022 whilst the two Januarys before that averaged a more typical 0.08% M/M. * We compare with previous Januarys on both residual seasonality grounds (although our understanding is that's more related to core services rather than goods) and the fact that whilst we try and choose seasonally adjusted series, many of these detailed categories are only available on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

US DATA: Latest CPI Trends: Core CPI Run Rates In Line With 2.5% Y/Y

* Core CPI 3-month: 2.52% annualized over the latest three months to January, following 1.70% to December (1.61% first reported) and 3.42% to September (3.64%). * 6-month: 2.52% annualized over the latest six months to January whilst the run rate to Dec was trimmed slightly from 2.63% to 2.56%. * Latest run rates are in line with the 2.50% Y/Y in January, as always taken from the NSA series and so unrevised with this update. That has cooled from 2.64% in December for a fresh low since Mar 2021 but of course is still biased lower due to treatment of rent series during the government shutdown. * Supercore CPI meanwhile stood at 2.88% annualized over the three months to Jan after 1.38% in Dec (1.46% initially) and 4.38% in Sept (vs 4.75%). * The six-month supercore rate increased to 3.2% annualized from a downward revised 2.9% (3.1% initially) for its highest since October. * All of the above trend rates are reliant on interpolating the October index level.