MNI BOE Review: February 2026 - More Than One Swing Voter

For the full document including summaries of over 20 sellside views, click here

• The MPC voted to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, but that was the only expected part of the decision, with everything else in a dovish direction.
• The vote split was 5-4 (with Ramsden and Breeden both preferring to vote for cuts now, rather than wait); the Agents’ Pay Survey came in at 3.4% (below the 3.5% expected); the medium-term inflation forecasts were lower than expected; and very significantly Mann seems to have joined Bailey as a swing voter on the MPC. Governor Bailey later said in an interview that 50/50 seems roughly appropriate for the March decision.
• Between now and the March meeting we will receive two further labour market reports, one more CPI print, one more DMP survey and one more flash PMI. These will be the key data Governor Bailey and external member Mann are monitoring. If these come in broadly in line with expectations, there is a good chance at least one of these two members will flip their vote and support a cut at the March meeting.
• It's crystal clear that there's now two swing members who could trigger the next cut. It's not just Bailey, it is Mann or Bailey. 
• We look at the inidividual members' views paragraphs, the Agents' Pay Survey and the near-term CPI and wage forecasts.
• In addition, we summarise over 20 sellside views.