AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26  
• PRICE: 0.6490 @ 16:29 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 0.6392 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

AUDUSD continues to trade in a range. Trend signals are bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6392, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

Option desks reported decent SOFR & Treasury option volumes Wednesday, flow bias shifted from buying puts in the first half to selling puts/unwinding positions as underlying futures remained strong. Projected rate cut pricing continues to gain vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at -1.1bp (-0.7bp), Jul'25 at -7.8bp (-7.4bp), Sep'25 at -24.2bp (-22.7bp), Oct'25 at -39.3bp (-35.9bp), Dec'25 at -56.3bp (-52.4bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • -30,000 SFRZ5 95.56/96.12 put spds, 18.75 vs. 96.19/0.40%
  • +4,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.68/95.81 put trees, 1.0
  • +4,000 0QM5 96.62/96.87 call spds .75 over 3QM5 96.50/96.75 call spds
  • +15,000 0QZ5 95.00 puts, 1.5 ref 96.77
  • +3,000 SFRH8 97.50/98.50 call spds w/ 98.00/99.00 call spd strip, 33.5
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 95.56/95.68/95.81 put fly w/ 96.00/96.12/96.25 call fly strip 3.5
  • -4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/96.00 put flys 2.5 over 95.68/95.81 put spds
  • Block, 2,000 0QN5 96.1/96.37 5x4 put spds, 8.0 net
  • +5,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.81 call spds, 0.37
  • -20,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.25/96.50 put trees, 2.0 vs. 96.175/0.22% (-20k Tue)
  • +5,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.81 2x1 put spds, 0.75
  • +2,000 SFRZ5 97.12 calls, 6.5
  • +3,500 SFRQ5 95.62/95.75 put spds, 2.5 ref 95.92
  • +3,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.75 1x2 call spds 1.25
  • 4,200 SFRH6 95.37 puts ref 96.345 to -.40
  • 3,000 0QZ5 96.00/96.25/96.50 put trees
  • 4,000 0QM5 96.18/96.31/96.43 put trees ref 96.51
  • -3,500 SFRZ5 95.62/96.12 put spds, 20.0 vs. 96.155/0.40%
  • +1,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.75 2x1 put spds, 0.0
  • 4,000 SFRM5 95.81 calls, 0.5
  • 1,000 0QU5 95.75/96.00/96.12/96.37 put condors
  • Block, +5,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.18 broken call flys, 1.87/splits
  • -1,000 0QV5 96.12/96.37 2x1 put spds, 0.5 ref 96.695
  • 2,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 96.16
• Treasury Options:
  • 2,000 FVU5 107/108.25 put spds 25.5 ref 108-13.25
  • 9,000 TYN5 111/112 call spds 27 ref 111-05
  • over 13,400 FVN5 108.25 puts 24.5 ref 108-10.75
  • 3,000 TYN5 107.5/109/110 1x3x1 broken put flys ref 111-01
  • 1,200 USN5/USQ5 120 call spds 18 ref 113-08
  • +30,000 TYN5 108 puts, 2
  • +10,000 FVN5 109.5 calls, 4.5
  • over 4,000 TYQ5 107.5/109 put spds, 14 ref 111-01
  • 2,200 FVU5 107 puts, 23 ref 108-09.5
  • Block, 10,000 FVN5 109.5 calls, 4.5 ref 108-05
  • 2,000 FVN5 106.75 puts ref 107-30.75
  • over 12,700 TYN5 111 calls, 30-35
  • +2,000 Wed wk 10Y 110/110.25/110.5 put trees, 5 vs 110-18.5/0.08%
  • +2,900 USN5 107/109/111 put flys, 20 ref 112-04 to -05
  • +2,000 FVQ5 105.75 puts, 6
  • +3,000 Wed wk 10Y 110 puts, 1 vs 110-14 to -14.5/0.08%

• Stocks are holding mostly in late Wednesday trade, the Dow scaling back support while the Nasdaq extends modest session high on the back of strong gains in semiconductor makers.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 10.24 points (-0.02%) at 42511.14, S&P E-Minis up 8.25 points (0.14%) at 5990.5, Nasdaq up 82.4 points (0.4%) at 19482.1.
• Tech stocks continued to outperform in the second half with ON Semiconductor +7.23%, NXP Semiconductors +5.74%, Lennar +3.21% and Seagate Technology +2.99%.
• Communication Services shares held earlier gains with Meta Platforms +2.92%, Live Nation Entertainment +2.66%, Netflix +1.85% and Match Group +1.56%.
• Conversely, Energy and Utility sectors continued to underperform as crude prices turned lower (WTI -0.43 to 62.98) after earlier headlines announced that "Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to continue with accelerated oil supply hikes," Bbg reported.
• Energy sector laggers included VValero Energy -3.08%, Phillips 66 -2.66%, Marathon Petroleum -2.62% and Schlumberger -2.48%. Meanwhile, Constellation Energy -3.30%, NRG Energy -1.76% and Vistra -1.51%.