AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6548 @ 16:05 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 0.6521 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6468/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26
- PRICE: 0.6490 @ 16:29 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 0.6392 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
AUDUSD continues to trade in a range. Trend signals are bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6392, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Puts Unwound
Option desks reported decent SOFR & Treasury option volumes Wednesday, flow bias shifted from buying puts in the first half to selling puts/unwinding positions as underlying futures remained strong. Projected rate cut pricing continues to gain vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at -1.1bp (-0.7bp), Jul'25 at -7.8bp (-7.4bp), Sep'25 at -24.2bp (-22.7bp), Oct'25 at -39.3bp (-35.9bp), Dec'25 at -56.3bp (-52.4bp).
- SOFR Options:
- -30,000 SFRZ5 95.56/96.12 put spds, 18.75 vs. 96.19/0.40%
- +4,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.68/95.81 put trees, 1.0
- +4,000 0QM5 96.62/96.87 call spds .75 over 3QM5 96.50/96.75 call spds
- +15,000 0QZ5 95.00 puts, 1.5 ref 96.77
- +3,000 SFRH8 97.50/98.50 call spds w/ 98.00/99.00 call spd strip, 33.5
- +5,000 SFRZ5 95.56/95.68/95.81 put fly w/ 96.00/96.12/96.25 call fly strip 3.5
- -4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/96.00 put flys 2.5 over 95.68/95.81 put spds
- Block, 2,000 0QN5 96.1/96.37 5x4 put spds, 8.0 net
- +5,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.81 call spds, 0.37
- -20,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.25/96.50 put trees, 2.0 vs. 96.175/0.22% (-20k Tue)
- +5,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.81 2x1 put spds, 0.75
- +2,000 SFRZ5 97.12 calls, 6.5
- +3,500 SFRQ5 95.62/95.75 put spds, 2.5 ref 95.92
- +3,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.75 1x2 call spds 1.25
- 4,200 SFRH6 95.37 puts ref 96.345 to -.40
- 3,000 0QZ5 96.00/96.25/96.50 put trees
- 4,000 0QM5 96.18/96.31/96.43 put trees ref 96.51
- -3,500 SFRZ5 95.62/96.12 put spds, 20.0 vs. 96.155/0.40%
- +1,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.75 2x1 put spds, 0.0
- 4,000 SFRM5 95.81 calls, 0.5
- 1,000 0QU5 95.75/96.00/96.12/96.37 put condors
- Block, +5,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.18 broken call flys, 1.87/splits
- -1,000 0QV5 96.12/96.37 2x1 put spds, 0.5 ref 96.695
- 2,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 96.16
- Treasury Options:
- 2,000 FVU5 107/108.25 put spds 25.5 ref 108-13.25
- 9,000 TYN5 111/112 call spds 27 ref 111-05
- over 13,400 FVN5 108.25 puts 24.5 ref 108-10.75
- 3,000 TYN5 107.5/109/110 1x3x1 broken put flys ref 111-01
- 1,200 USN5/USQ5 120 call spds 18 ref 113-08
- +30,000 TYN5 108 puts, 2
- +10,000 FVN5 109.5 calls, 4.5
- over 4,000 TYQ5 107.5/109 put spds, 14 ref 111-01
- 2,200 FVU5 107 puts, 23 ref 108-09.5
- Block, 10,000 FVN5 109.5 calls, 4.5 ref 108-05
- 2,000 FVN5 106.75 puts ref 107-30.75
- over 12,700 TYN5 111 calls, 30-35
- +2,000 Wed wk 10Y 110/110.25/110.5 put trees, 5 vs 110-18.5/0.08%
- +2,900 USN5 107/109/111 put flys, 20 ref 112-04 to -05
- +2,000 FVQ5 105.75 puts, 6
- +3,000 Wed wk 10Y 110 puts, 1 vs 110-14 to -14.5/0.08%
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Dow Slips Lower in Late Trade, Chip Stocks Up
- Stocks are holding mostly in late Wednesday trade, the Dow scaling back support while the Nasdaq extends modest session high on the back of strong gains in semiconductor makers.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 10.24 points (-0.02%) at 42511.14, S&P E-Minis up 8.25 points (0.14%) at 5990.5, Nasdaq up 82.4 points (0.4%) at 19482.1.
- Tech stocks continued to outperform in the second half with ON Semiconductor +7.23%, NXP Semiconductors +5.74%, Lennar +3.21% and Seagate Technology +2.99%.
- Communication Services shares held earlier gains with Meta Platforms +2.92%, Live Nation Entertainment +2.66%, Netflix +1.85% and Match Group +1.56%.
- Conversely, Energy and Utility sectors continued to underperform as crude prices turned lower (WTI -0.43 to 62.98) after earlier headlines announced that "Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to continue with accelerated oil supply hikes," Bbg reported.
- Energy sector laggers included VValero Energy -3.08%, Phillips 66 -2.66%, Marathon Petroleum -2.62% and Schlumberger -2.48%. Meanwhile, Constellation Energy -3.30%, NRG Energy -1.76% and Vistra -1.51%.
