MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – June 2025

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• Eurozone June flash headline HICP printed in line with expectations on Tuesday, at 2.0% Y/Y, slightly firmer than May’s 1.9%, while the core measure also confirmed consensus at an unchanged 2.3% Y/Y. The headline acceleration came as firmer energy inflation outweighed a marginal food/alcohol/tobacco slowdown.
• Particularly watched services HICP meanwhile was ever so slightly firmer than in May this time, providing a cleaner view on underlying pressures as easter and seasonality effects were not of major concern. The data for the category suggests some stickiness remains.
• Near-term ECB market-implied expectations currently stand around 50:50 implied odds for another 25bp cut by the September meeting. Any further repricing will likely hinge on any unexpected developments in the trade negotiations.