MNI BoE Preview - June 2025: All About the Vote and Minutes

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• The June MPC meeting will be a surprise to markets if the outcome is anything other than an on hold decision with unchanged official guidance.
• Expectations are relatively strongly pointing towards a 7-2 vote split with both Dhingra and Taylor likely to follow up their votes for a 50bp cut in May with a vote for a sequential cut (the magnitude of which is unlikely to elicit a market reaction).
• The main focus is on whether the dataflow has been enough to convince any other members of the MPC to vote for sequential cuts – with Breeden making the most dovish comments since the May meeting in our view, but Ramsden over the past few months showing the most willingness to change his vote based on labour market developments (which have been the datapoint to have deteriorated the most since the May meeting). We also think that Greene sounds a lot less hawkish than she has in the past so wouldn’t completely rule out her dovishly dissenting here.
• The Minutes will be closely watched, again mostly for discussion around the labour market and how widespread the view is amongst those who did not vote for a cut at this meeting that the labour market is deteriorating.