Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
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Central Bank
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * At tomorrow's RBNZ meeting the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold. The Bloomberg survey of sell-side economists shows all 22 economists see the policy rate being held at 2.25%. Our strong bias is also for no change tomorrow. If realized, this will leave the focus firmly on the outlook, particular on the RBNZ's new OCR path. The other focus point will be gauging new RBNZ Governor Breman's tone, as this will be her first rate setting meeting in charge. * The RBNZ will also likely be cautious around sounding too hawkish around the outlook, which the market will likely judge via the implied OCR outlook path. We would be surprised if the OCR path is more hawkish than current market pricing, which implies a policy rate near 2.65% by year's end (versus the current rate of 2.25%). The NZD TWI is up over 4% from Nov 2025 lows, while local rates have also risen. A further material tightening of financial conditions could put the economic recovery in jeopardy. This is also where Breman's tone is likely to be watched closely in terms of keeping the policy outlook flexible. FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:RBNZ Preview - Feb 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/RBNZ_Preview_Feb_2026_2056d416c2.pdf
February 17, 2026 02:35Focus will be on the vote split, the Agents' Pay Survey and individual paragraphs as we look for guidance
February 04, 2026 07:58Euro appreciation has faded since last week's push higher but President Lagarde will be mindful of further strength
February 03, 2026 17:42EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The combination of a resilient labour market and stronger than expected Dec/Q4 inflation has the sell-side consensus expecting an RBA rate hike tomorrow. If delivered, focus will be on how much follow up action the central bank sees as needed to ensure inflation returns to target. The trimmed mean CPI y/y has been trending up since mid last year and is now comfortably above the top end of the RBA's 2-3% target band. We expect the RBA to leave the door ajar for another hike, albeit one that remains dependent on data outcomes. * OIS now reflects materially tighter policy expectations across the curve. A 25bp hike tomorrow is priced at a 77% probability (up from 32% pre-jobs data), with cumulative tightening probability of 166% by June (vs 88% pre-jobs) and 229% by December 2026 (vs 152% pre-jobs). FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:RBA Preview - Feb 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/RBA_Preview_Feb_2026_2a2e1b5adc.pdf
February 02, 2026 03:09Market Analysis
Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P03022026_f54a5e3f2b.pdf * The trend of reduced shorts and increased longs across European bond future structural positioning continued into February. * Now just 1 of 7 contracts is in structurally short territory, vs 5 at the start of the year, with 4 longs (3 "very long"). * The latest week (to Monday Feb 2) saw relatively mixed trade: while it was mostly indicative of further long-setting, there was also some long reduction and short-setting. * GERMANY: German positioning remains extremely mixed. Bobl structural positioning has shifted into very long territory from merely "long" previously. Like Schatz (long), it has moved from "short" at the start of 2026. Bund has ticked up to flat after being short in our last update. Buxl remains very short. The latest's week trade showed longs set in each contract except Bund (long reduction). * OAT: OAT structural positioning has moved back to short vs flat in our previous bi-weekly update. The latest week's trade was indicative of long-setting. * GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains very long. However, there was some long reduction evident in the latest week's trade. * BTP: BTP structural positioning remains in very long territory. Trade indicative of further long-setting was seen in the latest week.
February 03, 2026 20:02Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P20012026_b79cc18478.pdf * Trade in early 2026 so far has been indicative of reduced shorts and increased longs across European bond future structural positioning. * Just 2 of 7 contracts are in structurally short territory, vs 5 of 7 in our last update 2 weeks ago, while there are now 3 longs (2 prior). * The latest week's trade through Monday Jan 19 saw longs set across the board in Eurex contracts. * GERMANY: German positioning is mixed. Bobl structural positioning remains erratic, moving back into long territory after being in "short" two weeks ago (it had previously been long through most of November/December). Bund remains in short territory with Buxl remaining very short. Schatz meanwhile has moved to flat after being "very short" previously. The latest's week trade showed longs set in each contract. * OAT: OAT structural positioning has moved to flat from short in our previous bi-weekly update. The latest week's trade was indicative of long-setting. * GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains very long. However bucking the broader trend, he latest week saw some shorts set. * BTP: BTP structural positioning has edged into very long territory after merely "long" prior. Trade indicative of further long-setting was seen in the latest week.
January 20, 2026 16:33The recent move away from long-leaning structural positioning broadly continued through the recent holiday period.
January 05, 2026 15:55Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P22122025_3a9956eca6.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The long-leaning overall structural positioning seen in mid-late November has mostly receded since the quarterly futures roll (Dec-Mar). * That's particularly the case for German contracts where longs are now hard to come by, with OAT also seeing a notable shift toward the short side. * Last week's trade (amid the ECB and BoE meetings) saw shorts set and longs reduced across most contracts. * GERMANY: Bobl remains in long territory but other German contracts have shifted since late November. Bund and Buxl most notably are now in short structural positioning, vs long previously. They are joined by Schatz which previously was "very short". The latest's week trade showed short-setting in each contract, with the exception of Schatz (short cover). * OAT: OAT structural positioning has flipped to short from long previously. Last week's trade was indicative of short-setting. * GILT: Gilt structural positioning was relatively flat going into the Dec/Mar rolls and remains so. The latest week saw some long reduction. * BTP: BTP structural positioning has dipped into long vs previously "very long" territory. Trade indicative of short-setting was seen last week.
December 22, 2025 19:57Global Issuance
Issuance Calendar
Political Risk
MNI's Political Risk team outlines the major political events scheduled throughout the year in 2026
December 31, 2025 14:42We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
November 28, 2025 13:07The UK Budget s the biggest domestic event of 2025. We answer main questions, outline potential measures and impacts.
November 21, 2025 17:00
Speaking to the presidents of the political groups in the Senate on 5 November, PM Sebastien Lecornu said a vote of censure against the gov't or a defeat of the 2026 budget in parliament "will amount to dissolution", and that he "will not be the Prime Minister who makes a handover of power with [far-right National Rally President] Jordan Bardella". * Le Parisien reports : https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/sebastien-lecornu-assure-quil-ne-sera-pas -le-premier-ministre-qui-fera-une-passation-de-pouvoir-avec-jordan-bardella-0 6-11-2025-EUEWSHOWCNHC5BRRYG4ZYMIKCA.phpthat Lecornu said, "I don't want to use Article 49.3, I don't want executive orders". As part of his return to the Matignon, Lecornu foreswore the use of Art. 49.3 to push through the budget without a vote in parliament. * His comment on 'executive orders' may refer to Art. 47 of the Constitution. Under this, if the finance bills are not passed within 70 days of submission, they can be implemented via ordinance. The 14 October submission sets a 23 Dec deadline. * Majority approval for the budget remains extremely uncertain. The left scored a notable win on 5 Nov, securing an increase in the generalised social contribution (CSG): https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/budget-de-la-secu-l-assemblee- nationale-adopte-une-hausse-de-csg-sur-les-revenus-du-capital_AD-202511050966 .html, which it intends to pay for the suspension of the 2023 pension reforms. * The amendment passed with the backing of leftist deputies, as well as a sizeable number of lawmakers from the centrist pro-Macron parties. * However, conservatives have objected with Les Republicains leader Bruno Retailleau calling it an "organised tax heist", Horizons leader and 2027 presidential candidate Edouard Philippe saying the measure was "fiscal madness", and prominent LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand saying parliament was "a madhouse".
November 06, 2025 13:01Election Previews
PM Takaichi looks to secure a majority for the LDP in 8 Feb election to ease passage of her fiscal stimulus agenda
Feb-05 15:36Election sets up a 3-way contest between progressives, populists, and conservatives that will influence policy direction
Feb-04 16:51First round election on 16 November could set up another far-left vs. far-right contest for the presidency
Nov-13 13:03Centrist parties look set to make gains at expense of populists, lengthy coalition negotiations expected after election.
Oct-28 16:17
