Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Real time
Central Bank
The Bank of Canada’s easing cycle looks to be at an end.
December 09, 2025 17:14Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
December 08, 2025 22:40The SNB are expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 0.00%.
December 08, 2025 14:22The RBA decision is announced Tuesday, 9 December and rates are highly likely to be left at 3.6%.
December 08, 2025 05:21Market Analysis
FI PI
Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P20112025_c1bfe27609.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Structural positioning across European bond futures has transitioned from largely short-leaning in September, to largely long-leaning currently. * The shift has been led largely by Germany, though overall there are no structurally "short" contracts in the MNI Europe Pi matrix. * The most recent week's trade (to Nov 19) is largely indicative of long reduction and short-setting, however. * GERMANY: German contracts' structural positioning has gone from broadly flat to largely long, and stands in sharp contrast to short/mixed in our updates covering September. Bobl, Bund and Buxl have each moved into long territory vs flat previously. Schatz remains "very short" however. The latest's week trade showed short-setting in Schatz and Buxl, with longs reduced in Bobl and Bund. * OAT: OAT structural positioning has shifted into long territory, breaking out of the flat range it's been in most of 2025. Latest week's trade was indicative of long reduction. * GILT: Gilt structural positioning was relatively flat going into the Dec/Mar rolls this week, having exited the short territory seen throughout October. The latest week saw some long reduction. * BTP: BTP remains in "very long" territory, and is not far off its summer longs. Trade indicative of long reduction was seen in the most recent week, however.
Nov-20 14:59Last Week FI PI
Trade since early October has largely faded what had previously been broadly "short"-leaning structural positioning.
Oct-28 13:36Gilt Week Ahead
The focus this week will be on MPC speak, monthly activity data and Chancellor Reeves’ testimony ahead of the TSC.
Dec-08 14:55Last week Gilt Ahead
We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
Nov-28 13:07Global Issuance
US
Treasury has made its biggest hint in quite a while that auction size increases are on the foreseeable horizon.
Dec-08 12:54UK
The focus this week will be on MPC speak, monthly activity data and Chancellor Reeves’ testimony ahead of the TSC.
Dec-08 14:55EU
We summarise 2026 funding plans. Belgium is due to conclude issuance for the year with an ORI operation.
Dec-12 17:02Global
We summarise 2026 funding plans. Belgium is due to conclude issuance for the year with an ORI operation.
Dec-12 17:02Issuance Calendar
Political Risk
We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
November 28, 2025 13:07The UK Budget s the biggest domestic event of 2025. We answer main questions, outline potential measures and impacts.
November 21, 2025 17:00
Speaking to the presidents of the political groups in the Senate on 5 November, PM Sebastien Lecornu said a vote of censure against the gov't or a defeat of the 2026 budget in parliament "will amount to dissolution", and that he "will not be the Prime Minister who makes a handover of power with [far-right National Rally President] Jordan Bardella". * Le Parisien reports : https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/sebastien-lecornu-assure-quil-ne-sera-pas -le-premier-ministre-qui-fera-une-passation-de-pouvoir-avec-jordan-bardella-0 6-11-2025-EUEWSHOWCNHC5BRRYG4ZYMIKCA.phpthat Lecornu said, "I don't want to use Article 49.3, I don't want executive orders". As part of his return to the Matignon, Lecornu foreswore the use of Art. 49.3 to push through the budget without a vote in parliament. * His comment on 'executive orders' may refer to Art. 47 of the Constitution. Under this, if the finance bills are not passed within 70 days of submission, they can be implemented via ordinance. The 14 October submission sets a 23 Dec deadline. * Majority approval for the budget remains extremely uncertain. The left scored a notable win on 5 Nov, securing an increase in the generalised social contribution (CSG): https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/budget-de-la-secu-l-assemblee- nationale-adopte-une-hausse-de-csg-sur-les-revenus-du-capital_AD-202511050966 .html, which it intends to pay for the suspension of the 2023 pension reforms. * The amendment passed with the backing of leftist deputies, as well as a sizeable number of lawmakers from the centrist pro-Macron parties. * However, conservatives have objected with Les Republicains leader Bruno Retailleau calling it an "organised tax heist", Horizons leader and 2027 presidential candidate Edouard Philippe saying the measure was "fiscal madness", and prominent LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand saying parliament was "a madhouse".
November 06, 2025 13:01A trio of legal challenges to Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra will define Thailand's medium-term political outlook.
August 21, 2025 07:50Election Previews
First round election on 16 November could set up another far-left vs. far-right contest for the presidency
Nov-13 13:03Centrist parties look set to make gains at expense of populists, lengthy coalition negotiations expected after election.
Oct-28 16:17President Milei needs strong electoral performance to keep Trump on side with US support on the line
Oct-23 14:59Babis looks to return for 2nd term as PM amid rise in support for populist parties, PM Fiala's coalition facing defeat
Oct-02 10:28
