Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Real time
Central Bank
The RBNZ is likely to cut rates 25bp on 26 November to 2.25%, edging below its estimate of "neutral".
November 25, 2025 04:04Thursday's MPC decision is far from certain between a cut and hold. We cover key drivers and motivations for each voter.
November 05, 2025 13:31Norges Bank is unanimously expected to hold the deposit rate at 4.00% on Thursday.
November 04, 2025 13:01The Riksbank is almost certain to remain on hold at 1.75% on Wednesday.
November 03, 2025 14:26Market Analysis
FI PI
Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P20112025_c1bfe27609.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Structural positioning across European bond futures has transitioned from largely short-leaning in September, to largely long-leaning currently. * The shift has been led largely by Germany, though overall there are no structurally "short" contracts in the MNI Europe Pi matrix. * The most recent week's trade (to Nov 19) is largely indicative of long reduction and short-setting, however. * GERMANY: German contracts' structural positioning has gone from broadly flat to largely long, and stands in sharp contrast to short/mixed in our updates covering September. Bobl, Bund and Buxl have each moved into long territory vs flat previously. Schatz remains "very short" however. The latest's week trade showed short-setting in Schatz and Buxl, with longs reduced in Bobl and Bund. * OAT: OAT structural positioning has shifted into long territory, breaking out of the flat range it's been in most of 2025. Latest week's trade was indicative of long reduction. * GILT: Gilt structural positioning was relatively flat going into the Dec/Mar rolls this week, having exited the short territory seen throughout October. The latest week saw some long reduction. * BTP: BTP remains in "very long" territory, and is not far off its summer longs. Trade indicative of long reduction was seen in the most recent week, however.
Nov-20 14:59Last Week FI PI
Trade since early October has largely faded what had previously been broadly "short"-leaning structural positioning.
Oct-28 13:36Gilt Week Ahead
We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
Nov-28 13:07Last week Gilt Ahead
We discuss the five factors (in order of importance) that will drive the market reaction to this week's Budget
Nov-24 12:41Global Issuance
US
Treasury’s first Refunding process of the 2026 fiscal year is likely to largely keep a steady approach to issuance .
Nov-03 16:11UK
We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
Nov-28 13:07EU
The EU, Germany, Spain and France will all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
Nov-28 17:10Global
The EU, Germany, Spain and France will all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
Nov-28 17:10Issuance Calendar
Political Risk
We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
November 28, 2025 13:07The UK Budget s the biggest domestic event of 2025. We answer main questions, outline potential measures and impacts.
November 21, 2025 17:00
Speaking to the presidents of the political groups in the Senate on 5 November, PM Sebastien Lecornu said a vote of censure against the gov't or a defeat of the 2026 budget in parliament "will amount to dissolution", and that he "will not be the Prime Minister who makes a handover of power with [far-right National Rally President] Jordan Bardella". * Le Parisien reports : https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/sebastien-lecornu-assure-quil-ne-sera-pas -le-premier-ministre-qui-fera-une-passation-de-pouvoir-avec-jordan-bardella-0 6-11-2025-EUEWSHOWCNHC5BRRYG4ZYMIKCA.phpthat Lecornu said, "I don't want to use Article 49.3, I don't want executive orders". As part of his return to the Matignon, Lecornu foreswore the use of Art. 49.3 to push through the budget without a vote in parliament. * His comment on 'executive orders' may refer to Art. 47 of the Constitution. Under this, if the finance bills are not passed within 70 days of submission, they can be implemented via ordinance. The 14 October submission sets a 23 Dec deadline. * Majority approval for the budget remains extremely uncertain. The left scored a notable win on 5 Nov, securing an increase in the generalised social contribution (CSG): https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/budget-de-la-secu-l-assemblee- nationale-adopte-une-hausse-de-csg-sur-les-revenus-du-capital_AD-202511050966 .html, which it intends to pay for the suspension of the 2023 pension reforms. * The amendment passed with the backing of leftist deputies, as well as a sizeable number of lawmakers from the centrist pro-Macron parties. * However, conservatives have objected with Les Republicains leader Bruno Retailleau calling it an "organised tax heist", Horizons leader and 2027 presidential candidate Edouard Philippe saying the measure was "fiscal madness", and prominent LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand saying parliament was "a madhouse".
November 06, 2025 13:01A trio of legal challenges to Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra will define Thailand's medium-term political outlook.
August 21, 2025 07:50Election Previews
First round election on 16 November could set up another far-left vs. far-right contest for the presidency
Nov-13 13:03Centrist parties look set to make gains at expense of populists, lengthy coalition negotiations expected after election.
Oct-28 16:17President Milei needs strong electoral performance to keep Trump on side with US support on the line
Oct-23 14:59Babis looks to return for 2nd term as PM amid rise in support for populist parties, PM Fiala's coalition facing defeat
Oct-02 10:28
