MNI Europe Pi: Gilts Flat Into Roll, But Overall Long-Leaning

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Structural positioning across European bond futures has transitioned from largely short-leaning in September, to largely long-leaning currently.
• The shift has been led largely by Germany, though overall there are no structurally "short" contracts in the MNI Europe Pi matrix.
• The most recent week's trade (to Nov 19) is largely indicative of long reduction and short-setting, however.
• GERMANY: German contracts' structural positioning has gone from broadly flat to largely long, and stands  in sharp contrast to short/mixed in our updates covering September. Bobl, Bund and Buxl have each moved into long territory vs flat previously. Schatz remains "very short" however. The latest's week trade showed short-setting in Schatz and Buxl, with longs reduced in Bobl and Bund.
• OAT: OAT structural positioning has shifted into long territory, breaking out of the flat range it's been in most of 2025. Latest week's trade was indicative of long reduction.
• GILT: Gilt structural positioning was relatively flat going into the Dec/Mar rolls this week, having exited the short territory seen throughout October. The latest week saw some long reduction.
• BTP: BTP remains in "very long" territory, and is not far off its summer longs. Trade indicative of long reduction was seen in the most recent week, however.