MNI SNB Preview: December 2025 - Likely to Remain Neutral

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Executive Summary:

• The SNB are expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 0.00%, with a cut back into negative territory highly improbable given inflation has remained within the SNB’s defined range of price stability since June
• The rate outlook is likely to continue to be characterized by a high bar to further cuts, with focus on any messaging on how far the Bank are from such a move given inflation undershot the latest Q4 forecasts by almost 0.3pp
• The Swiss – US tariffs deal brings levies down to 15% and alleviates any concern over earlier, steeper rates which weighed on Q3 GDP growth
• The SNB’s FX communications paragraph is likely to remain materially unchanged given limited net moves in the trade-weighted CHF since September