MNI RBA Preview-Dec 2025: On Hold, Could Be A Hawkish Shift?

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• With October trimmed mean inflation printing at 3.3%, the RBA is unanimously expected to be on hold at its December meeting.
• The strength of the data since the November meeting plus inflation rising further above the top of the band increases the chance that the RBA now sees risks skewed to the upside and as a result it may sound more hawkish and at a minimum will remain “cautious”. 
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is showing the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 2% tomorrow to 105% by August and 141% by December 2026. 
• With core inflation rising over H2 2025 and stronger demand increasing upside risks, future rate decisions will be even more data dependent to give clarity to the outlook. November CPI is released 7 January & Q4/December 28 January ahead of the next RBA meeting on 4 February. At this stage policy is likely to be unchanged then too.