FED: Trump Tells WSJ: Leaning To Warsh Or Hassett As Fed Chair
President Trump has told the Wall Street Journal in an interview Friday that he was leaning toward either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett as his pick for the next Fed Chair.
- Warsh's probability of becoming Fed chair is spiking (40%, up 25pp on Kalshi in the last few minutes) on prediction markets with the interview suggesting the ex-Fed governor is neck-and-neck with previously presumptive favorite Hassett (57%).
- "In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in the Oval Office on Friday, the president said Warsh was at the top of his list. "Yes, I think he is. I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They're both -- I think the two Kevins are great," he said. "I think there are a couple of other people that are great.""
- Additionally Trump tells the WSJ that the next Fed Chair should consult with him on where to set interest rates, and that he pressed Warsh this week on "whether he could trust him to support interest-rate cuts if he were chosen to lead the central bank, according to people familiar with the meeting. Trump, in the Journal interview, confirmed that reporting. "He thinks you have to lower interest rates," Trump said of Warsh. "And so does everybody else that I've talked to." "
- "Asked where he wants interest rates to be a year from now, Trump said, "1% and maybe lower than that." "
- This is not entirely new rhetoric from Trump on rates and the associated litmus test of a low rate preference for the next Fed Chair - as such there's not much market reaction to the news, but the reporting suggests that current Fed officials Waller and Bowman may be out of the running.
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USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9
- RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4140/55 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
- PRICE: 1.4001 @ 17:24 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 1.3994 Low Nov 12
- SUP 2: 1.3957 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3878 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
USDCAD is trading below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4155, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4021. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3957. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
US: House To Vote On Govt Funding Package Shortly, Final Vote Expected 19:00ET
The US House of Representatives is shortly due to hold votes for the first time since September 19. At around 19:00 ET 00:00 GMT, members are expected to vote on final passage of a ‘minibus'/Continuing Resolution to reopen the federal government.
- House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said in a memo to Republican lawmakers earlier he expects voting to conclude by 20:00 ET 01:00 GMT. When the House passes the funding package, it will head to the White House for President Donald Trump’s signature, formally ending the longest government shutdown in US history.
- There have been no signs of Republican dissent ahead of the vote. Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) is likely to vote against the bill, as he does with all short-term funding measures, but other hardline conservatives – including Rep Victoria Spartz (R-IN) – have lined up behind the measure.
- House Democrats are whipping against the bill, but there are likely to be several defections, including Rep Jared Golden (D-ME), who provided the only Democratic vote on the previous GOP funding bill and announced recently he will not seek re-election.
- Rep Don Davis (D-NC) also signalled he is likely to support the bill, writing on X earlier: “After a meeting with NC-01 veteran service officers about the effects of the government shutdown, the flight to DC is boarding, headed to vote on a bill that would reopen the government.”
- In a few moments, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will swear in representative-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), who has promised to provide the 218th and final signature to a discharge petition triggering a House vote on releasing DOJ files related to Jeffrey Epstein.
AUD: AUD/USD - Probing 0.6550 Area Heading Into Employment Data
The AUD/USD had a range overnight of 0.6530-0.6550, Asia is trading around 0.6545. Risk consolidated its recent gains and the USD drifted sideways. The AUD/USD has found support and continues to consolidate above 0.6500. The AUD will be one of the main beneficiaries while this positive sentiment dominates the market. The AUD/USD needs a sustained push above the 0.6550 area for the focus to turn back toward the 0.6650/0.6700 year highs. Perhaps the catalyst could be the employment data release today ?
- MNI AU - Steady October Labour Market Forecast, Watch Underemployment Too. After the unemployment rate rose 0.2pp to 4.5% in September, the October jobs release will be monitored closely to see if there is some stabilisation as the data can be volatile on a monthly basis. Bloomberg consensus expects it to fall 0.1pp to 4.4% with new jobs up 20k and the participation rate stable at 67%. RBA Governor Bullock has advised to look at the data on a 3-month average basis.
- Bloomberg reported the views of a CBA strategist, “The Australian labour force report for October has the potential for a larger impact on AUD/USD if it changes perceptions about the future path of the RBA’s cash rate.”
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6500(AUD549m), 0.6520(AUD902m), 0.6525(AUD 680mm). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6400(AUD913m Nov 18), 0.6750(AUD2.17b Nov 14) - BBG
- The Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 43 Points
- Data/Event: Consumer Inflation Expectation, Employment Change
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
