MNI US Payrolls Preview: Softer Demand Meets Supply Constraint

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Executive Summary

• The June payrolls report sees a rare Thursday release at 0830ET owing to Independence Day on Friday, as part of a particularly heavy docket that also includes ISM Services.
• There are few alternative June labor indicators to go off as the release also lands early in the month, with the most notable being a pronounced uplift in jobless claims.
• Broad Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls rising a seasonally adjusted 110k in June after 139k in May, with private dealer analysts a little lower at 103k and the Bloomberg Whisper currently at 100k.
• Immigration curbs mean these growth rates will be seen in a relatively stronger light than last year.
• The unemployment rate is expected to round to 4.3%, not hard from 4.244% prior, for what would be a fresh cycle high. The median FOMC participant now sees 4.5% for 4Q25 vs 4.4% in the March SEP.
• Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% M/M after a strong May whilst hours are seen unchanged.
• A firmly dovish build-up to the release currently sees Fed Funds futures price 5bp of cuts for July plus a cumulative 29bp for Sept and 69bp for Dec. The latter compares to the median FOMC participant eyeing 50bp of cuts in 2H25, including seven committee members looking for no rate cuts at all this year.