USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3674/3776 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3607 @ 16:12 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. S/T gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger is 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3776. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.
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US TSYS: Holding Near Highs After Soft ADP, ISM Services Data
- Treasuries look to finish near midday highs Wednesday, projected rate cuts through year end back above 50bp again after this morning's soft ADP private payroll and ISM Services data.
- The Sep'25 10Y contract trades +22 at 111-04.5 vs. 111-07 high, testing resistance at 111-05.5 (High May 9)
- The ISM services report for May showed a painful combination of another increase in prices paid (highest since late 2022) and new orders slumping (lowest since late 2022); the overall index hit its lowest (and first sub-50 reading) since Jun 2024.
- ADP employment increased just 37k (sa, cons 114k) in May after a marginally downward revised 60k (initial 62k) in April. Consensus currently stands at 120k for Friday's private payrolls release.
- Later in the session, the June 4 Beige Book reported that "economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report" while suggesting rising tariff-related inflationary pressures.
- Off session lows, the Greenback nevertheless reversed the prior session gains after data set a negative tone for the US dollar on Wednesday. USDJPY sits 0.85% lower on the session, having had a punchy 165 pip turnaround from the overnight highs.
- Focus turns to Thursday's weekly jobless claims, trade balance and unit labor costs.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Ex-BOC Adviser On Rates
MNI interviews former BOC adviser on interest rates following BOC decision -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
AUDUSD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26
- PRICE: 0.6490 @ 16:29 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 0.6392 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
AUDUSD continues to trade in a range. Trend signals are bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6392, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
