USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• Treasuries look to finish near midday highs Wednesday, projected rate cuts through year end back above 50bp again after this morning's soft ADP private payroll and ISM Services data.
• The Sep'25 10Y contract trades +22 at 111-04.5 vs. 111-07 high, testing resistance at 111-05.5 (High May 9)
• The ISM services report for May showed a painful combination of another increase in prices paid (highest since late 2022) and new orders slumping (lowest since late 2022); the overall index hit its lowest (and first sub-50 reading) since Jun 2024.
• ADP employment increased just 37k (sa, cons 114k) in May after a marginally downward revised 60k (initial 62k) in April. Consensus currently stands at 120k for Friday's private payrolls release.
• Later in the session, the June 4 Beige Book reported that "economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report" while suggesting rising tariff-related inflationary pressures.
• Off session lows, the Greenback nevertheless reversed the prior session gains after data set a negative tone for the US dollar on Wednesday. USDJPY sits 0.85% lower on the session, having had a punchy 165 pip turnaround from the overnight highs.
• Focus turns to Thursday's weekly jobless claims, trade balance and unit labor costs. 

 MNI interviews former BOC adviser on interest rates following BOC decision -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26  
• PRICE: 0.6490 @ 16:29 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 0.6392 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

AUDUSD continues to trade in a range. Trend signals are bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6392, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.