MNI: MEDIAN FED OFFICIAL SEES 1 CUT THIS YEAR
- MNI: MEDIAN FED OFFICIAL SEES 1 CUT THIS YEAR
- FED: 4 OFFICIALS SEE NO CUT IN '24, 7 SEE 1 CUT, 8 SEE 2
- FED: 'MODEST FURTHER PROGRESS' ON INFLATION RECENTLY
- FED: MEDIAN LONGER RUN RATE 2.8% VS 2.6% IN MARCH
- FED: MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE 4.1% END-2025, 3.1% END-2026
- FED: PCE INFLATION SEEN 2.6% END-2024 VS 2.4% IN MARCH
- FED: CORE PCE SEEN 2.8% END-2024 VS 2.6% IN MARCH
- FED HOLDS RATES AT 5.25%-5.5% RANGE
- FED: WON'T CUT RATES UNTIL MORE CONFIDENT ON INFLATION
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EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8652 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8618/21 76.4% of the Apr 23 - 30 sell-off / May 9 high
- PRICE: 0.8598 @ 15:50 BST May 13
- SUP 1: 0.8567/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
EURGBP traded higher again last week to undermine the recent bearish theme. This strengthens a developing short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher would open 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight an important technical break. Initial support to watch is 0.8567, the 50-day EMA.
FED: RRP Usage Nudges Higher As Continues Trend Stabilization
- Reverse repo operation usage nudged $6bn higher today to $492bn.
- It follows yesterday’s $28bn increase but is only at its highest since May 8.
- The number of counterparties increased by 5 to 77, its highest since Apr 26.
- RRP usage appears to have broadly stalled in the $400-500bn range since March.
GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.2754 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.2667 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2634 High May 03
- PRICE: 1.2568 @ 15:49 BST May 13
- SUP 1: 1.2446 Low May 9 and key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
GBPUSD has pulled back from its recent 1.2634 high (May 3) and the pair traded lower Thursday last week. Firm near-term support has been defined at 1.2446, the May 9 pullback low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and this would signal scope for an extension towards the bear trigger at 1.2300, the Apr 22 low. For bulls, a breach of 1.2634 would reinstate the recent upleg and open 1.2667, a Fibonacci retracement.
