Fig 1: China Export & Import Growth Improved In July
UK
CHINA (BBC): “Angela Rayner has given China two weeks to explain why parts of its plans for a new mega-embassy in London are redacted. Beijing's plans for the new embassy have sparked fears its location - very near London's financial district - could pose an espionage risk.”
EU
RUSSIA/UKRAINE (BBG): “ President Donald Trump said there was a “very good chance” he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy soon in another bid to broker peace between the two countries.”
SWITZERLAND (BBG): "Switzerland’s president left Washington without announcing any success in lowering the 39% tariff that US President Donald Trump has put on her country."
US
FED (MNI): The Federal Reserve will likely need to lower interest rates "in the coming months" to prevent further labor market weakening while still putting downward pressure on inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Wednesday.
FED (MNI BRIEF): President Donald Trump on Wednesday said his pick to replace outgoing Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will likely be in a temporary position, adding that the announcement will come in coming days.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Wednesday she is watching closely the recent deterioration of the labor market, as reflected in sharp downward revisions to employment growth, reported by BLS last week.
TARIFFS (RTRS): “The United States will impose a tariff of about 100% on semiconductor chips imported from countries not producing in America or planning to do so, President Donald Trump said.”
TARIFFS (RTRS): “U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he could announce further tariffs on China similar to the 25% duties announced earlier on India over its purchases of Russian oil, depending on what happens.”
OTHER
US/INDIA (RTRS): “U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing New Delhi's continued imports of Russian oil in a move that sharply escalated tensions between the two nations after trade talks reached a deadlock.”
JAPAN (MNI INTERVIEW): A former BOJ board member shares his policy rate outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
JAPAN (BBG): "A fresh discrepancy in interpretations of the US-Japan trade deal came to the fore on Thursday, as Japan’s chief negotiator visits Washington to press for follow-through on a pledge to cut a levy on car imports to 15%."
CHINA
TRADE (MNI BRIEF):China's exports increased 7.2% y/y in July, while imports rose 4.1%, data released by China Customs showed on Thursday. Exports in July reached USD321.8 billion, up 7.2% y/y, the fastest growth in three months, exceeding last 5.8% and the forecasted 5.5%. Imports rose 4.1% in July, the second positive change in five months and beating the market consensus of a 1.5% drop.
STOCKS (SECURITIES TIMES): “China’s total outstanding balance of margin transactions, which includes margin trading and short selling, earlier this week hit the highest since May 2015 when A—shares were in the middle of a bull market, Securities Times reported Thursday.”
MONETARY POLICY (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): “China’s monetary policy will likely see limited impact from potential adjustment in overseas economies including the US in the second half, Shanghai Securities News reported Thursday, citing analysts.”
ECONOMY (YICAI): “China’s Chief Economist Confidence Index rose to 50.2 in August, surpassing the 50-point boom-bust threshold after recording 49.9 in July, Yicai News Agency reported.”
FISCAL (YICAI): “China’s national local general public budget revenue rose 1.6% year-on-year in the first half, while tax revenue declined in many provinces, reflecting persistent pressure on fiscal revenue growth, Yicai News Agency reported.”
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY122.5 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY160.7 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY122.5 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY283.2 billion today, according to Wind Information
The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4031% at 09:35 am local time from the close of 1.4557% on Wednesday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 48 on Wednesday, compared with the close of 49 on Tuesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1345 on Thursday, compared with 7.1409 set on Wednesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1725 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA JUNE EXPORTS +6.0% M/M; MAY -3.0% AUSTRALIA JUNE IMPORTS -3.1% M/M; MAY +3.3% AUSTRALIA JUNE TRADE SURPLUS A$5.365B; EST. A$3.00B; MAY A$1.60B
NEW ZEALAND Q3 1-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 2.37%; Q2 2.41% NEW ZEALAND Q3 2-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 2.28%; Q2 2.29%
CHINA JULY EXPORTS IN USD TERMS +7.2% Y/Y; EST. +5.6%; JUNE +5.9% CHINA JULY IMPORTS IN USD TERMS +4.1% Y/Y; EST. -1.0%; JUNE +1.1$ CHINA JULY TRADE SURPLUS $98.24B; EST. +$104.70B; JUNE +$114.75B
SOUTH KOREA JUNE GOODS TRADE SURPLUS WIDENS TO $13.16B; MAY $10.66B SOUTH KOREA JUNE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS WIDENS TO $14.27B; MAY $10.14B
JAPAN TOKYO AVERAGE OFFICE VACANCIES JULY 3.16%; JUNE 3.37% JAPAN PRELIM JUNE LEADING INDEX 106.1; EST. 106.0; MAY 104.8 JAPAN PRELIM JUNE COINCIDENT INDEX 116.8; EST. 116.6; MAY 116.0
The TYU5 range has been 112-03+ to 112-07 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-04, down 0-03+ from the previous close.
The US 2-year yield is trading around 3.712%.
The US 10-year yield has edged higher trading around 4.246%, up 0.02 from its close.
The 10-year yield had a powerful move lower in reaction to the NFP data, breaking below its 4.30% pivot within the wider range 4.10% - 4.65%. This now turns momentum lower in yields and you could expect buyers of treasuries on bounces back towards 4.30/35% now looking to initially test the 4.10% area.
Mohamed El-Erian on LinkedIn: “The views of some FOMC members appear to be shifting to align with the position taken by the two dissenters, Governors Bowman and Waller, at last week's policy meeting. The massive revisions to the jobs data are, of course, the catalyst for this change. However, there's another noteworthy aspect: We're once again witnessing the limitations of this Federal Reserve's excessive data dependency, which has left it with virtually no strategic vision -- something that also contributed to the big 2021-22 ("transitory inflation") policy mistake.”
Alexander Stahel on X: ”Think about this “Black Swan” again. The downward revisions to May and June payrolls in the July jobs report constitute a black swan event — a three-standard-deviation move with less than a 0.2% chance of occurrence in the last 30 years. 50bps cut is coming."
JGB futures are stronger, +13 compared to settlement levels.
Today, the local calendar will also see Leading/Coincident Index data.
Zerohedge on X: "What epic chaos, Japan had expected items currently tariffed at < 15% would face a 15% levy, while those above 15%, like beef, would stay at the current rate without any additional tariff. But according to the US government, imports from Japan will be subject to an additional 15% tariff regardless of the existing rate: Kyodo."
Cash US tsys are 1bp cheaper to 1bp richer, with a slight steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session.
Cash JGBs are flat to 4bps across benchmarks, with a flatter curve after today’s 30-year auction.
The 30-year JGB auction delivered mixed results. The low price aligned with dealer expectations of 95.35, per the Bloomberg survey. However, the cover ratio dipped to 3.4297x from 3.5796x. On the other hand, the auction tail shortened significantly to 0.15 from 0.31, indicating an improvement in bidding strength.
Swap rates have twist-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Household Spending, Trade Balance and Bank Lending data alongside the BOJ Summary of Opinions (July MPM).
ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +1.0) are mildly stronger after a subdued session of trading.
The June merchandise trade surplus widened more than expected in June to $5365mn from a downwardly-revised $1604mn. There was a jump in exports while imports contracted. The surplus remained in the range it has been in since March 2024.
After frontloading of shipments to the US in Q1 to beat the early April tariff deadline, exports moderated in Q2 but while they remained at robust levels, the UK exceeded them in June. Iron ore & coal volumes were robust in June.
Cash US tsys are 1bp cheaper to 1bp richer, with a slight steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest twist-steepener.
Cash ACGBs are 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at flat.
The bills strip is slightly mixed, with pricing -1 to +2.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in August is given a 97% probability, with a cumulative 63bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Foreign Reserves data.
The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 3.00% 21 November 2033 bond on Friday.
NZGBs closed near session bests, 2-3bps richer, after the release of RBNZ inflation expectations data.
Q3 inflation expectations were stable in the RBNZ’s survey of forecasters, economists and industry leaders. 1-year ahead they remained at 2.4%, while 2-years ahead at 2.3% - both within the 1-3% target band but remaining above the mid-point. 1-year troughed at 2.1% in Q4 2024 while 2-year in Q3 2024 at 2.0%. With expectations stable, its measure of core moderating 0.1pp to 2.8% in Q2, wage inflation heading towards 2% and economic growth remaining lacklustre, the RBNZ seems likely to cut rates 25bp to 3% on August 20.
Today’s weekly supply saw strong demand metrics, with cover ratios ranging from 3.13x (May-35) to 6.66x (May-41).
Cash US tsys are 1bp cheaper to 1bp richer, with a slight steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest twist-steepener.
Swap rates closed 1-2bps lower, with a slightly steeper 2s10s curve.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 23bps of easing is priced for August, with a cumulative 41bps by November 2025.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty. The next release will be Card Spending data on Wednesday.
The BBDXY has had a range of 1203.29 - 1205.45 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1203, -0.10%. The BBDXY is probing its first support just below 1205, with the market still very quick to jump onto any opportunity to sell the USD. A sustained move back above the 1230 area would be needed to put pressure on the bears. China Exports and Imports Beat Estimates for July: the numbers tell a more encouraging story for the longer-term outlook.
EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1650 - 1.1676, Asia is currently trading 1.1670. The pair has bounced nicely off the important 1.1300/1.1400 area. The market is probing its first resistance towards the 1.1700 area, Sellers should be around this area first-up.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3346 - 1.3369, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3365. The pair bounced nicely off the 1.3100/1.3200 support area. I would suspect sellers could be around this bounce back towards 1.3400/1.3450 initially.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1796 - 7.1875, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1345, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1830. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2200/2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2500 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 147.15 - 147.71, Asia is currently trading around 147.40, +0.03%. USD/JPY is consolidating within a 146.50-148.00 range. Price has moved very quickly away from the pivotal 151/152 area much to the relief of Institutional Yen longs and the BOJ. CFTC Data shows leveraged accounts had started to aggressively build Yen shorts last week so this quick move lower would be a bitter pill to swallow. Price is holding above the support area around 146.50/147.00, a move sub 145.00 is needed to turn momentum lower once more, until then the 145.00-151-00 range should dominate.
"U.S. TO ADD 15% TARIFF ON ALL JAPANESE IMPORTS, U.S. WILL NOT APPLY EXCEPTIONS TO JAPAN FOR PRODUCTS THAT ALREADY HAVE TARIFFS EXCEEDING 15% - ASAHI NEWSPAPER CITING WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL - [RTRS]"
Zerohedge on X: “What epic chaos, Japan had expected items currently tariffed at < 15% would face a 15% levy, while those above 15%, like beef, would stay at the current rate without any additional tariff. But according to the US government, imports from Japan will be subject to an additional 15% tariff regardless of the existing rate: Kyodo.”
"HAYASHI: AKAZAWA CALLED ON US TO IMPLEMENT LOWER AUTO TARIFFS" - BBG
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 147.65($1.43b), 148.50($1.24b).Upcoming Close Strikes : 147.30($797m Aug 12), 146.00($671m Aug 8 ) - BBG.
CFTC data shows asset managers surprisingly added slightly to their JPY longs +75119( Last +72326), while leveraged funds aggressively added to their newly built short JPY position -31280(Last -11571).
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6496 - 0.6516 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6515, +0.18%. US equities shrugged off any growth concerns and surged higher, preferring to concentrate on potential rate cuts and further Tech investments. This morning the Apple announcement has seen US futures trade better bid, ESU5 +0.28%, NQU5 +0.30%. The AUD has benefitted from this renewed surge in risk but depending on what your view is 0.6500/50 offers good risk/reward to fade initially. I feel the performance of US equities over August/September will be crucial as seasonality points to some strong headwinds approaching.
AUSTRALIA DATA: June Gold Exports Drive Increase In Trade Surplus. The June merchandise trade surplus widened more than expected in June to $5365mn from a downwardly-revised $1604mn. There was a jump in exports while imports contracted. The surplus remained in the range it has been in since March 2024.
(Bloomberg) -- After outperforming peers since April, the best days for the Aussie and kiwi are now in the rearview mirror, Capital Economics says, and expects both currencies to weaken against the US dollar over the remainder of the year. “Although we suspect global risk sentiment will remain strong, we think optimism around China will reverse soon.”
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6500(AUD1.2b), 0.6600(AUD1.97b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6500(AUD4.37b Aug 8 ), 0.6400(AUD1.32b Aug 8 ), 0.6700(AUD1.41b Aug 8 ) - BBG
CFTC Data shows Asset managers reduced their shorts slightly -49183(Last -53959), the Leveraged community added to their own shorts -13997(Last -12010).
AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 95.66 - 96.09, Asia is trading around 96.05. The pair failed on multiple attempts above 97.00 and has moved swiftly back to test its first support toward the 95.00 area. There should be sellers around the 96.00/96.50 area initially, a sustained break below 94.50/95.00 is needed to signal a deeper move lower.
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5923 - 0.5951 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5950, +0.30%. US equities shrugged off any growth concerns and surged higher, preferring to concentrate on potential rate cuts and further Tech investments. This morning the Apple announcement has seen US futures trade better bid, ESU5 +0.25%, NQU5 +0.30%. NZD/USD bounced nicely off its 0.5850 support but depending on your view I would suspect sellers could return on any bounce back toward 0.6000. For the moment back in the 0.5850-0.6100 range looking for a catalyst to break and give clearer direction.
Steady Inflation Expectations, August Cut Likely. Q3 inflation expectations were stable in the RBNZ’s survey of forecasters, economists and industry leaders. 1-year ahead they remained at 2.4%, while 2-years ahead at 2.3% - both within the 1-3% target band but remaining above the mid-point. 1-year troughed at 2.1% in Q4 2024 while 2-year in Q3 2024 at 2.0%. With expectations stable, its measure of core moderating 0.1pp to 2.8% in Q2, wage inflation heading towards 2% and economic growth remaining lacklustre, the RBNZ seems likely to cut rates 25bp to 3% on August 20.
BNZ Notes That Weak Hours Worked Signal Soft Q2 GDP - While the Q2 headline labour market data were not as weak as BNZ expected, the details showed “a picture that is at least as soft as we had feared, and one which is certainly weaker than the Reserve Bank had expected” in May. Thus BNZ is sticking with its view that the RBNZ will cut rates 25bp on August 20 and October 8.
Westpac Economics - “We expect the RBNZ will deliver another 25bp rate cut at this month’s policy review. But the picture beyond that time is less clear. It’s unlikely that the RBNZ will call time on the easing cycle just yet as the economy is yet to decisively and sustainably turn. However, with mixed economic conditions in recent months, there are questions about the pace and extent of any further policy easing (if any).”
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5970(NZD496m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5920(NZD483m Aug 11), 0.5930(NZD646m Aug 11). - BBG
Asian stocks markets are mostly higher in the first part of Thursday trade. Taiwan markets are the standout, up over 2%. US equity futures are in positive territory, around +0.25-30% for both Eminis and Nasdaq futures. The main news focus has been US President Trump's earlier announcement of a 100% tariff on chip imports from companies that don't have or aren't planning to have manufacturing operations in the US. Those that do have such facilities or are planning to are exempt. Apple shares rose firmly in afterhours US trade as this was seen as a risk to its outlook.
South Korean and Taiwan officials noted that a number of key suppliers of semiconductors, Samsung and SK Hynix for South Korea and TSMC for Taiwan, would be exempt from the tariffs.
The has likely aided sentiment in these markets. In Taiwan TSMC is up over 4%. The broader market is up over 2%, leaving the Taiex index around 24000, which is fresh highs back to mid last year. The authorities noted some companies will still be impacted.
South Korea's Kospi is up around 0.75%, last above 3220. Still, offshore investors have been modest sellers of local stocks so far today.
Japan markets are also higher, the Topix pressing towards 3000, up close to 0.70%. This is fresh record high for the index.
In China, markets are little changed. Earlier data showed better than expected export and import growth for July. The trade surplus was sub $100bn, with exports to the US continuing to fall in y/y terms.
In SEA, the Philippines is weaker down 0.66%. There may be some concern around the chip impact on electronic exports. Elsewhere, Thailand stocks are up over 1% and the SET has now recovered 20% from recent lows. Most other markets are tracking higher.
Oil prices have declined since Friday but so far today they are higher following US President Trump imposing a 25% punitive tariff on imports from India because of its significant imports of fuel from Russia. Markets don’t expect US measures to materially impact Russian exports, but there is still the risk that global supply declines as a result.
WTI is 1.0% higher at $64.96/bbl after reaching $65.08 but it has struggled to hold breaks above $65. Brent is up 0.8% to $67.45/bbl following an intraday high of $67.58.
President Trump said that special envoy Witkoff made “great progress” in Russia and that he should meet with President Putin next week. He sounded very uncertain though on the chance of a truce despite his August 8 deadline. He also stated that other countries would face punitive tariffs and didn’t rule out that China would be included.
Westpac believes that current supply trends will cap moves in Brent in the low $70s (Bloomberg).
Despite higher output, Saudi Arabia increased its price for the second consecutive month.
Later the Fed’s Bostic speaks on monetary policy. US preliminary Q2 productivity/ULC, July NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and jobless claims print as well as June German trade & IP. The BoE decision is announced and a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. Governor Bailey will follow.
After being slightly down on Wednesday, gold prices have started today up 0.3% to $3380.3/oz. They fell to $3365.36, below initial support at $3268.2, early in the APAC session and then rose to a high of $3384.02 supported by the weaker US dollar. Dovish Fed comments yesterday and increased risks to growth from higher tariffs (US added 25% to India for buying Russian fuel, 100% for US chip imports) are likely contributing. Uncertainty remains high over Ukraine-Russia talks.
The Fed’s Daly and Cook sounded dovish saying that “we will likely need to adjust policy in the coming months” and that payrolls were a possible “turning point” respectively. Markets are also monitoring the replacement process for Governor Kugler.
Silver is also higher up 0.6% to $38.039, close to the intraday high. It fell to $37.828 earlier. It continues to trade between support at $36.216 and resistance at $39.655.
Equities are generally stronger with the S&P e-mini up 0.3%, Nikkei +0.7% and Hang Seng +0.5%. Oil prices are up with WTI +0.9% to $64.93/bbl. Copper is 0.3% higher.
Later the Fed’s Bostic speaks on monetary policy. US preliminary Q2 productivity/ULC, July NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and jobless claims print as well as June German trade & IP. The BoE decision is announced and a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. Governor Bailey will follow.