AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session Of Trading, Nov-33 Supply Tomorrow
Aug-07 04:43
ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +1.0) are mildly stronger after a subdued session of trading.
- The June merchandise trade surplus widened more than expected in June to $5365mn from a downwardly-revised $1604mn. There was a jump in exports while imports contracted. The surplus remained in the range it has been in since March 2024.
- After frontloading of shipments to the US in Q1 to beat the early April tariff deadline, exports moderated in Q2 but while they remained at robust levels, the UK exceeded them in June. Iron ore & coal volumes were robust in June.
- Cash US tsys are 1bp cheaper to 1bp richer, with a slight steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest twist-steepener.
- Cash ACGBs are 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at flat.
- The bills strip is slightly mixed, with pricing -1 to +2.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in August is given a 97% probability, with a cumulative 63bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Foreign Reserves data.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 3.00% 21 November 2033 bond on Friday.
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AUD: RBA Reaction
Jul-08 04:35
The RBA has left rates unchanged in a surprise decision. The AUD went into the Meeting trading around 0.6510 and quickly moved to 0.6550 on this as the market was almost fully priced for a cut.*RBA: JUDGED RISKS TO INFLATION HAVE BECOME ‘MORE BALANCED’ - BBG
- AUD/USD - 0.6545, +0.83%
- AUD/NZD - 1.0862, +0.32%
- EUR/AUD - 1.7950, +0.50%
- AUD/JPY - 95.50, +0.75%
- XPU5 - 8550, -0.26%
- EOY OIS 1-10bps higher, bear steepener yields 1-5bps higher
RBA SAYS BOARD WANTED MORE DATA, CAN WAIT
Jul-08 04:33
- RBA SAYS BOARD WANTED MORE DATA, CAN WAIT
RBA: On Hold, Surprising The Market
Jul-08 04:32
The RBA left rates on hold, against wide spread expectations of another 25bps cut. This leaves the policy rate at 3.85%. More details to follow
