
US TSYS: Treading Water Ahead Today's Fed Speakers & UofM Sentiment Data
TYZ5 is dealing at 112-26, -0-00+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
STIR: $-Bloc Pricing Shows Mixed Performance Over Past Three Weeks
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
JGBS: Slightly Cheaper After A Subdued End To the Week, BOJ SOO On Monday
JGB futures are unchanged after giving up overnight gains fueled by a rally in US tsys.
JAPAN DATA: Sep Household Spending Below F/Cs, Focus To Get Real Wages Higher
Japan Sep real household spending data was softer than forecast. Real spending fell 0.7%m/m, against a -0.1% forecast (per Rtrs). In y/y terms we were up 1.8%y/y, against a 2.5% forecast. Given generally softer cash earning outcomes in recent months some moderation in spending was not a surprise, although as the chart below highlights there is still somewhat of a wedge between spending and earnings trends. The real spending backdrop has remained fairly resilient, staying positive in y/y terms for the past 5 months. The authorities focus will remain on returning cash earnings growth to real positive territory as without that we may see spending trends soften as we progress towards year end and into 2026.
Fig 1: Japan Real Household Spending & Cash Earnings Y/Y

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
JAPAN DATA: Inflows Into Japan Stocks Continued, Locals Sold Offshore Assets
At the end of Oct we still had positive offshore inflow momentum to local Japan stocks. Last week's inflow bought the late to Sep to early Oct inflow sum to nearly ¥7.15trln. Since the start of Nov we have seen equity weakness emerge, although so far the NKY 225 is supported sub the 50000 level. Market risk aversion is elevated amid AI valuation concerns and given the extent of recent run ups. We may see offshore investors trim some of their Japan holdings in response, although dips since April in benchmark Japan equity indices have been very well supported. Offshore investors added to Japan bonds as well, last week, but cumulative inflows were only modestly positive for most of Oct.
Table 1: Japan Weekly Offshore Investment Flows
| Billion Yen | Week ending Oct 31 | Prior Week |
| Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | 690.1 | 1345.3 |
| Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | 280.6 | -249.2 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | -354.4 | -354.6 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | -581.1 | -62.1 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
JAPAN: Fair To Say Japan's Economic Policy Has Changed - Takaichi
New Japan PM Takaichi was speaking in parliament earlier and stated that it is fair to say that the country's economic policy has changed (via BBG). Takaichi stated that a single year goal of a primary government budget surplus was being abandoned and rather the focus would be on a multiple year horizon (for such an objective). Other points Takaichi noted was that, nominal growth should be stronger than JGB yield levels, while she also planned to bring down the country's debt to GDP ratio (per BBG). Earlier she remarked that Abenomics had not generated strong enough economic growth, with Covid impact impacting momentum.
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer But Off Bests, YC Vulnerable To Rates Outlook
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are stronger but near-session cheaps.

Bloomberg Finance LP
BONDS: NZGBS: Curve Steepener Takes A Breather
NZGBs closed showing a bull-flattener, with benchmark yields 2-5bps lower.

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: Asia-Pac FX: The USD Drifts Higher As Risk Struggles In Asia
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1220.82 - 1222.64 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1222, +0.10%. Some interesting price action overnight as risk took another leg lower but the USD actually fell outside of pairs that are used as risk proxies such as the AUD, JPY and CHF. Some poor employment data and a market awaiting the Supreme Court ruling has given the USD bulls some pause. Intra-day I suspect sellers should re-emerge back toward the 1223.50 area, the first real buy zone is back toward the 1215 area. Look for the USD to do some work and chop around within the 1215-1230 range. A negative Supreme court ruling would be a dagger in the heart of the USD but these cases can take months to be decided so it's tough to be taking a clear directional view based on that outcome in the present moment.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia-Pac: NZD/USD Trades Heavy Toward 0.5600 As Risk Slides
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5615 - 0.5641 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5620, -0.25%. Looks like there could be more to this pullback in risk and the NZD is being dragged lower with the AUD as a risk proxy. The price action is interesting in that the NZD was able to move lower even with the USD back under pressure. I am a little wary of positioning in the NZD market but price action for the moment is re-assuring. Look for rallies to remain heavy while risk stays under pressure, with the 0.5600 target basically reached the next target will be the pivotal 0.5500 area.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia-Pac: AUD/USD Drifts Lower With Risk
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6468 - 0.6487 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6470, -0.20%. Looks like there could be more to this pullback in risk and the AUD is normally everyone's favourite proxy to use, should this correction in risk build the recent outperformance of the AUD especially in the crosses would be most at risk. The AUD/USD has moved back toward the 0.6450 area where it found good support earlier in the week. A lot rides on how risk trades from here, a break of the 0.6450 area would then target the more important 0.6350 area. Rallies above 0.6500 should find sellers on the day while risk trades poorly.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia-Pac: USD/JPY Consolidates Around 153.00
The USD/JPY range today has been 152.82 - 153.31 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 153.10, +0.05%. The pair failed overnight again above the 154.00 area as cross-Yen came back under pressure as risk turned lower again. A lot depends on what your view is for risk from here, but the price action of the last few days signals we could be putting in a potential top and if a correction in risk plays out then I suspect the resistance around the 154/155 area should continue to offer solid resistance. With the crosses under pressure we could see some further pullbacks and therefore I suspect rallies on the day toward 153.50 should find better sellers, but I do think any correction lower will still find buyers happy to fade. The first buy zone is toward 151.50-152.00 and then the more important 149.00-150.00 area.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Down As Kospi Pullback Continues, Philippines Near 2022 Lows
Major Asia Pac equity indices are faltering into the end of the week, amid concerns around US jobs momentum and elevated AI/tech valuations. US equity futures are modestly in the red, struggling for fresh upside, post cash losses in Thursday trade. Kospi weakness/volatility remains a standout. The Main index is off close to 3% at the time of writing, putting the index back near the 3900 level. Japan markets are down 2.2% in terms of the NKY 225, while most other markets are weaker as well, despite some modest pockets of strength in South East Asia.
ASIA STOCKS: Few Bright Spots, South Korean Outflows Surge Amid Tech Concerns
Outflows, particularly from South Korea, have been the dominant feature of EM Asian market flows as we approach the end of the week. The past 5 trading days has seen just over $3.7bn in net outflows from South Korea, while the first 4 days of this week has seen close to $5bn in net outflows, the most since 2021 (on a weekly basis). Kospi volatility remains very high (the market down a further 2.5% so far today). South Korean stocks are a good barometer for both global and tech related trends, and given the extent of the recent run higher, some paring in risk is not surprising. Net flows are now back into negative territory for the year.
Table 1: Asia Markets Net Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2025 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | -1251 | -3716 | -1376 |
| Taiwan (USDmn) | -321 | -3131 | 2502 |
| India (USDmn)* | -37 | -1486 | -16453 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | -7 | 220 | -2373 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | -25 | 28 | -2972 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | -31 | -61 | -4179 |
| Philippines (USDmn) | 4 | -13 | -759 |
| Total (USDmn) | -1669 | -8159 | -25609 |
| * Data Up To Nov 4 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
Gold - Trades In A $3900-$4100 Range As It Tries To Build A Base
The range overnight for gold was $3 965.87 - $4 019.60/oz, Asia is currently trading around 3991.00/oz, +0.35%. It had little reaction to the weakening US jobs data seen overnight. Gold has been chopping around sideways the last few days after finding support once more toward the $3,900/oz area. The market is trying to form a base from which to test higher again, the range looks set to be $3900-$4100/oz while this plays out.
Fig 1 : Gold & Gold Miners % Of Total Global Assets

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Crescat Capital
CHINA DATA: Weaker Headline Export & Import Growth, But Caveats Apply
China's headline Oct trade figures were weaker than forecasts, with export growth falling to -1.1%y/y, the weakest result since Feb this year (the market forecast a drop from 8.3% to 2.9%). Imports also moderated to 1.0%y/y from 7.4% in Sep (2.7% was the forecast). The important caveat is that we had the National Day holiday period in the first part of Oct (1st to the 8th), which could have impacted, while we were also coming off a high base of export growth from last year (+12.6%y/y for Oct 2024). These outcomes also pre-date the thawing in tensions between the US-China following the recent Xi/Trump meeting (which has seen tariffs lowered, albeit from elevated levels). China exports to the US were down 25.1%y/y in Oct. Hence the market may not downgrade China's growth expectations off the back of this data.
Fig 1: China Exports & Imports Y/Y

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
PHILIPPINES: Q3 GDP Well Below Forecasts, Adds To BSP Easing Case in Dec
Philippines Q3 GDP growth was well below expectations, printing at 4.0%y/y (versus 5.2% forecast, while 5.5% was the Q2 outcome). In q/q terms we rose 0.4%, half the pace expected (0.8% was consensus) and well below the 1.5% gain seen in Q2 q/q growth. The y/y pace is now at its slowest since 2021 (as growth rebounded from the Covid pandemic), see the chart below. Today's data adds firmly to the case for a BSP cut at the Dec policy meeting (held Dec 11). Economic Planning Minister Balisacan was confident growth would improve (with efforts to step up by the government) but noted it would be a challenge to meet the lower end of the growth target (5.5-6.5%).
Fig 1: Philippines Q3 Y/Y Growth At Multi Year Lows

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
KRW: USD/KRW Breaks Above 1450, JPY/KRW Targeting 200-day MA Upside Test
Spot USD/KRW is comfortably above 1450 in latest dealings, last near 1454/55, up a further 0.30%. This puts us within striking distance of the 1460 region, levels last seen in early April of this year. The regional and local equity backdrop remains softer, the Kospi down around 1.8% and under 4000. Per the NBUY function on BBG, offshore investor flows have been positive so far today (but only for +$20mln). US equity futures are in the green but only modestly, with upside limited so far today. Earlier headlines around US restricting Nvidia chip sales (even scaled down versions) to China adding some caution to the broader tech equity outlook.
Fig 1: JPY/KRW Pushing Towards Simple 200-day MA

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 07/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 07/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | Foreign Trade | |
| 07/11/2025 | 0800/0300 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 07/11/2025 | 1110/1110 | BOE Saporta At ECB Money Market Conference | ||
| 07/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | ||
| 07/11/2025 | 1200/1200 | BOE Market Participants Survey | ||
| 07/11/2025 | - | BOE MPG Agenda Published | ||
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Labour Force Survey | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/1430 | ECB Elderson At Bundesbank Event | ||
| 07/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1515/1515 | BOE Pill At National Agency Briefing | ||
| 07/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 07/11/2025 | 2000/1500 | * | Consumer Credit | |
| 07/11/2025 | 2000/1500 | Fed Governor Stephen Miran |