MNI US Macro Weekly: War And PCE

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260410_41c13613b9.pdf Executive Summary * While a ceasefire in the Middle East war was announced this week, the implications of the related energy and supply chain shocks are just beginning to show in the data. * In the week's key release, March CPI undershot expectations on core (0.20% M/M vs 0.27% consensus) but headline surged on energy, printing 0.87% M/M. At best, any disinflation narrative coming into the year remains extremely fragile, with energy leaving inflation dispersion metrics elevated. * Implications for core PCE are mixed, with risks on both sides. Analysts trimmed March core PCE estimates modestly (median now ~0.22% M/M) following the CPI release, though questions over some PCEspecific categories-particularly legal services-remain a key downside risk pending next week's PPI. Core PCE inflation remains stubbornly firm near 3.0% Y/Y, with recent run rates closer to 4% annualized. * Inflation has been taking a bite out of consumption, with latest data showing nominal resilience but less impressive volumes. February PCE showed solid nominal spending, but real consumption growth slowed, with goods volumes flat to negative and services carrying growth almost alone. Overall, real consumption momentum is decelerating despite tax refunds offering something of a tailwind. * Against this backdrop, Q1 growth tracking remains subdued, but with an unusual mix of drivers: the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of ~1.3% Q/Q SAAR, sees business equipment investment contributing more to growth than consumption. The Dallas Fed WEI corroborates a 1.3-1.5% Q1 growth signal, pointing to modest domestic demand momentum overall. * And labor market indicators remain consistent with "low hire, low fire." Weekly ADP showed improving job growth, and continuing claims continued to trend lower, suggesting labor market resilience. However, survey data show rising worker pessimism and muted hiring. * With markets focused on the degree of concern over energy pressures spilling into broader inflation, it was noteworthy that the latest FOMC minutes suggested more participants in March saw potential for the next move being a hike (compared with January's meeting). * That said, while Fed rate pricing swung with ceasefire headlines, they ended little changed. Markets briefly priced a more dovish Fed following the USIran ceasefire announcement, but much of that move reversed as the truce appeared tenuous. By week's end, pricing implied only 5-6bp of cuts through end2026. * While attention this weekend will firmly be on peace talks in Pakistan, the week ahead is headlined by March PPI, crucial for refining core PCE expectations. Other items of note include import/export prices, and several Fed speaker appearances ahead of the pre-meeting blackout period starting next weekend.

MNI US Inflation Insight: Core Relief Overshadowed By Energy

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Apr2026_2179cf98d7.pdf March CPI undershot expectations on core measures, though the energy price shock due to the conflict in the Middle East came through clearly in a soaring headline inflation reading and more subtly across some energy-sensitive categories. Core CPI printed 0.196% M/M (vs consensus 0.27%) and 2.60% Y/Y (vs 2.7%), while headline CPI surged 0.865% M/M and 3.26% Y/Y * Underlying momentum was mixed, with recent core trends easing but still elevated. Threemonth core CPI slowed to about 2.9% annualized, while the sixmonth pace came in at ~2.3%, partly biased lower by government shutdown distortions earlier in the year. * Supercore inflation cooled meaningfully but remains a key area of concern: it slowed to 0.18% from 0.35%, down sharply from prior months, yet its three month annualized rate remains elevated around 4%+. * Housing inflation continued to moderate, supporting the Fed's longerterm disinflation narrative. * Core goods inflation softened again despite tariffrelated pressures earlier in the year. Core goods rose only ~0.1% M/M, dragged down by another decline in used car prices, while median core goods inflation posted a second consecutive soft reading following January's tariffrelated surge. * Inflation breadth widened, mainly due to energy, but longerterm dispersion signals are improving. About half of the CPI basket is now rising at 3%+ Y/Y, though some measures (Cleveland Fed median, trimmed mean) continued to trend lower on a Y/Y basis, offering a glimmer of gradual longerterm disinflation. * CPI details had mixed implications for core PCE, with downside and upside risks offsetting. Analysts trimmed March core PCE estimates slightly (median ~0.22% M/M), though volatile categories such as legal services and strong PCEweighted core goods remain key forecast risks pending PPI data. * Beyond the immediate knee-jerk reaction, pricing reverted to trade roughly around pre-data levels. In the half-hour following the release, FOMC-dated OIS effectively showed no change over the next 3 meetings and a cumulative 9bp of cuts through year-end.

MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 13 Apr

The EU, the Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Spain and France all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.

MNI US EARNINGS SCHEDULE - Unusually Busy First Week

Q2's earnings season unusually sees a particularly busy first week, with ~7.5% of the S&P 500 set to report.