All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

Latest insights

Rate decisions in Poland and Czechia take focus next week.

May-01 14:34

MNI interviews ex-CEA head Glenn Hubbard on Warsh Fed, monetary policy.

May-01 14:23

MNI speaks to the former deputy director of the National Economic Council about the upcoming Warsh Fed.

May-01 14:11

Austria, Germany, Spain, France and Belgium will all look to issue in the upcoming week.

May-01 12:45

Former Central Bank of Brazil deputy governor for monetary policy Reinaldo Le Grazie talks to MNI in an interview.

May-01 11:21

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FI Market Analysis

A weekly wrap of some of the key data outcomes/macro themes for the Asia Pac region.

May 01, 2026 05:57

The ECB unanimously held rates today but with an in-depth discussion on a potential rate hike; June still heavily priced

April 30, 2026 05:38

Eurozone April headline HICP printed marginally above consensus at 3.04% Y/Y

April 30, 2026 04:11

Italy will hold the non-competitive 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction today and Belgium will hold its ordinary second round.

April 30, 2026 05:40

FX Market Analysis

The BOJ held rates at 0.75% as expected, but the tone was more hawkish signalling a shift toward gradual tightening.

April 30, 2026 12:56

(Corrects PDF Link) Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Review_Apr2026_5857d4f02e.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The communications following Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair had two major undercurrents. * The first was a vocal assertion of policy independence from political influence, in anticipation of the arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair by the next meeting in June. * The second - and related - undercurrent was that the door to further rate cuts appears to be closing, with current FOMC members looking increasingly reluctant to support a continuation of the easing cycle regardless of the preferences of the incoming Chair. * Rates markets concluded the meeting pricing in slightly more tightening. But appropriately given Powell's continued emphasis on seeing more data before making future decisions, most of this hawkish repricing through the meeting could probably be attributed to rising oil prices on developments in the US-Iran war. See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch

April 29, 2026 08:49

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Apr2026_39e0f7d852.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The communications following Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair had two major undercurrents. * The first was a vocal assertion of policy independence from political influence, in anticipation of the arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair by the next meeting in June. * The second - and related - undercurrent was that the door to further rate cuts appears to be closing, with current FOMC members looking increasingly reluctant to support a continuation of the easing cycle regardless of the preferences of the incoming Chair. * Rates markets concluded the meeting pricing in slightly more tightening. But appropriately given Powell's continued emphasis on seeing more data before making future decisions, most of this hawkish repricing through the meeting could probably be attributed to rising oil prices on developments in the US-Iran war. See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch

April 29, 2026 08:43

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Apr2026_f377ac7b0f.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bank of Canada's expected overnight rate hold at 2.25% at the April meeting was accompanied by a relatively neutral near-term outlook that highlighted somewhat lopsided two-way risks for rates dependent on the evolution of major geopolitical risks in the coming months. * The BOC is wary about the Middle East war's medium-term impact on overall price pressures, though no more than might have been expected given that it explicitly says it will "look through" near-term energy inflation and has updated its CPI forecasts accordingly. Governing Council also remains concerned about downside risks to growth stemming from upcoming US trade negotiations. * But with rates already at the bottom end of the neutral range (which was unchanged at 2.25-3.25% in its annual update), it's evident that potential upside in rates (BOC: "consecutive increases") is greater than the downside at this juncture ("may need tocut further"). For now, as Macklem said, "Maintaining the policy rate today where it is was the right thing to do for today". * Against this backdrop, the market's overall bias in seeing the next move as a hike stayed intact. Following the meeting, OIS pricing was relatively little changed through end-year, still seeing between 1 and 2 overnight rate hikes of 25bp through the December decision, though there was a slight upward bump in pricing for the 3 meetings between July and December. See PDF report for: * MNI View * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * Monetary Policy Report * BOC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes

April 29, 2026 03:57