MNI BOE Review, UK Inflation and Labour Insight: December 2025

MNI BOE Review Full Document

MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight Full Document

• We look at the tweaks to the BOE's guidance and where the bar is for cuts at upcoming meetings.
• We think that for the next cut progress on headline CPI and official labour market data will not be sufficient. It is likely we will also need to see progress on inflation expectations data as well as further DMP prints and a non-adverse result from the Agents' Pay Survey.
• Regarding labour market data: quantities are surprisingly soft while wage data is broadly in line to a little softer versus BOE forecasts. There are also some warning signs in the redundancy data - but too early to draw conclusions on.
• While inflation data surprised to the downside in November it was impacted by air fares, Black Friday sales and a timing change for tobacco duty. The December print could be closer to the BOE’s forecast.