EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Polymarket Betting on Next Fed Chairman

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Polymarket
UK
FISCAL (DJ/BBG): “The U.K. government is set to break its fiscal rules unless it raises taxes or cuts spending when it unveils its new budget plans later this year, the U.K.'s National Institute of Economic and Social Research said Wednesday.”
EU
ECB (BBG): “European Central Bank shouldn’t lower borrowing costs again, outgoing Governing Council member Robert Holzmann told Oberösterreichische Nachrichten. “In my opinion, the ECB should wait and see what economic developments arise, particularly outside Europe, and how we respond to them. Interest rates are currently where the markets expect them to be.””
UKRAINE (BBC): “Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky has said he and Donald Trump discussed sanctions against Russia, defence cooperation and drone production ahead of a visit to Moscow by US envoy Steve Witkoff.”
NATO (POLITICO): “Lithuania is calling on NATO to help strengthen its air defenses after a drone carrying 2 kilograms of explosives entered the country from Belarus and crashed in a military training area.”
GREECE (POLITICO): “Greek government ministers and senior officials are suspected of colluding in a massive farm aid scam to defraud the European Union of hundreds of millions of euros. But despite being named as suspects by European prosecutors, they are likely to evade justice because Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is blocking a full-scale investigation.”
US
MNI BRIEF: Trump To Pick Fed Governor By End-Week
U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he will pick a new Federal Reserve governor by the end of the week and again named National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as contenders to be the next Fed leader.
MNI INTERVIEW: Tariffs Pushing Services Into Contraction - ISM
Trade policy will drag U.S. services into contraction for the next couple months as demand remains weak and inflation builds, Institute of Supply Management survey chief Steve Miller told MNI on Tuesday, adding he expects the Federal Reserve to remain in a wait-and-see stance.
TRADE WAR (BBC) : “Despite being the world's most sanctioned country, Russia has continued to use its vast energy wealth to bankroll its war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump is hoping to change that. He has announced that sweeping new secondary tariffs will impact any country still trading with Russia if a ceasefire with Ukraine is not agreed by Friday 8 August. Secondary tariffs would see goods from any country that trades with Russia face a 100% tax when they are imported into the US.
TRADE WAR (BBG) : “President Donald Trump said he’d impose increased tariffs on countries buying energy from Russia while clarifying that levies on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports would be announced “within the next week or so.”
OTHER
JAPAN: MNI BRIEF: Japan June Negative Real Wages Narrow
JAPAN RATES (BBG) : “A member of parliament in the Liberal Democratic Party added his voice to those calling for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy in order to bolster the yen. “Now the economy is with inflation and interest rates, so we should have new economic policies,” Kono Taro said in a press conference Wednesday. “Now what we need is tight monetary policy to bring the yen stronger.”
NZ: MNI BRIEF: NZ Unemployment Hits 5.2% In Q2
New Zealand’s Q2 unemployment rate rose 10 basis points to 5.2%, matching the Reserve Bank’s forecast but slightly below market expectations, according to data released by Stats NZ.
AUSTRALIA: MNI INTERVIEW: Further RBA Cuts Risk Policy Mistake - McKibbin
The Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% on Aug 12, but further easing could prove a policy mistake and force the Bank to reverse course within six months unless a major global shock intervenes, former RBA board member Warwick McKibbin told MNI.
TAIWAN (BBG): “Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs is reviewing rules to limit indirect imports of Chinese automobiles from third countries, following reports that Chinese EV giant BYD is planning to enter the Taiwanese market by selling vehicles assembled in Thailand through a local agent, the Ministry said in a statement late Tuesday.”
CHINA
MNI China Press Digest Aug 6: Kindergartens, Banking, Mergers
EDUCATION (STATE COUNCIL): "Public kindergarten students will have 100% of final-year fees waived from September semester 2025 onwards, while children at private pre-schools will see reduced fees, the State Council announced."
FINANCE (YICAI): "Provinces such as Guangdong and Ningxia are taking steps to tackle involuted competition in the banking sector, Yicai.com reports."
FINANCE (YICAI): "Authorities have approved the merger of China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry, with analysts expecting more CNY100 billion SOE mergers on the way, Yicai.com reports, noting China Shenhua, a state-owned coal mining and energy company."
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY170.5 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY138.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY170.5 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY309 billion today, according to Wind Information
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1409 Weds; -0.09% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1409 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1366 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1830 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2Q 5.2%, EST 5.3%: PRIOR 5.1%
NEW ZEALAND EMPLOYMENT CHANGE QoQ 2Q -0.1%, EST -0.1%: PRIOR 0.0% (REVISED)
NEW ZEALAND EMPLOYMENT CHANGE YoY 2Q -0.9%; EST -0.9%: PRIOR -0.7%
NEW ZEALAND PARTICIPATION RATE 70.5%, EST 70.7%: PRIOR 70.7% (REVISED)
NEW ZEALAND PVT WAGES EX OVERTIME QoQ 2Q 0.6%, EST 0.5%: PRIOR 0.5%
NEW ZEALAND PVT WAGES INC OVERTIME QoQ 2Q 0.6%, EST 0.5%: PRIOR 0.5%
NEW ZEALAND AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS QoQ 2Q 1.9%: PRIOR 0.2%
NEW ZEALAND COTALITY HOME VALUES JULY -0.2% M/M; JUNE -0.1%
JAPAN JUNE SAME BASE REGULAR FULL-TIME PAY +2.3% Y/Y; EST. 2.5%; MAY 2.4%
JAPAN JUNE CASH WAGES FROM SAME SAMPLE +3.0% Y/Y; EST. 3.5%; MAY 2.1%
JAPAN JUNE LABOR CASH EARNINGS RISE 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%; MAY 2.1%
JAPAN JUNE REAL CASH EARNINGS FALL 1.3% Y/Y; EST. -0.7%; MAY -2.6%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Edge Higher In A Quiet Session
The TYU5 range has been 112-04 to 112-07 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-04, down 0-05 from the previous close.
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Post-Wages Data Twist-Flattener Is Holding
JGB futures are weaker and at session lows, -26 compared to settlement levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed On A Subdued Data-Light Session
ACGBs (YM -0.5 & XM -1.0) are little changed on a data-light session.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed At Worst Levels But Only Modestly Cheaper
NZGBs closed 3bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the NZ-US 10-year yield differential little changed on the day.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Drifts Lower
The BBDXY has had a range of 1208.77 - 1210.24 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1208, -0.10%. The USD, with a huge rejection of the 1220/1230 area on Friday, had a knee-jerk reaction lower to the outsized move in US rates as the market's view on growth and interest rate cuts is re-evaluated. The USD is consolidating just above its 1205 support, as the market contemplates the increasing headwinds to risk and what that means for the USD. The market is still very quick to jump onto opportunities to sell the USD, a sustained move back above the 1230 area would be needed to put pressure on the bears.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot 120min Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap -USD/JPY Drifts Lower Shrugging Off Wage Data.
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 147.34 - 147.75, Asia is currently trading around 147.35, -0.20%. USD/JPY initially tried higher after weaker than expected wage data, but good sellers towards 148.00 continue to cap for now. Price has moved very quickly away from the pivotal 151/152 area much to the relief of Institutional Yen longs and the BOJ. CFTC Data shows leveraged accounts had started to aggressively build Yen shorts last week so this quick move lower would be a bitter pill to swallow. Price is holding above the support area around 146.50/147.00 for now, a move sub 145.00 is needed to turn momentum lower once more, until then the 145.00-151-00 range should dominate.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Gets A Boost From A Positive Asian Session For Risk
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6465 - 0.6492 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6490, +0.25%. The AUD has bounced in our session as Asian equities trade positively ignoring the wobble seen in the US in response to the ISM Services data. The AUD bounced nicely off the 0.6400 area but I suspect sellers might return back towards 0.6500/50 initially. I feel the performance of US equities over August/September will be crucial as seasonality points to some strong headwinds approaching.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Bounces On a Better Employment Print & Positive Risk
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5891 - 0.5926 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5925, +0.37%. The NZD has bounced in our session in response to a better than expected unemployment print and Asian equities trading positively ignoring the wobble seen in the US in response to the ISM Services data. NZD/USD bounced nicely off its 0.5850 support but I would suspect sellers could return on any bounce back toward 0.6000. With the seasonality for risk looking poor there is a chance it tests the pivotal 0.5800/50 area, a break of which would open up a move back to the 0.5500 lows.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0949 - 1.0982, currently trading 1.0955. The Cross moved lower in response to the better employment print but continues to consolidate on a 1.09 handle as the pair tries to build some momentum to move higher.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Trump Takes Aim at Pharma
Some of Asia's pharma stocks took a hit today as President Trump aimed his tariff sights firmly in their direction. Pharma shares in Australia, Japan, South Korea and India are down by 2-3% after Trump said in an interview that he will be putting tariffs on Pharmaceuticals.
Following yesterday's better than expected GDP, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite has consolidated above 7,500 over 25% off the March lows.
A government initiative to provide free preschool education has given Chinese childcare related stocks a boost with rises of +2-4% .
OIL: Crude Higher Again, US Inventory Data Out Later
Oil prices are higher today supported by US industry data showing a large crude drawdown and the upcoming August 8 deadline for a truce in Ukraine otherwise purchasers of Russian fuel will be hit by extra US tariffs. Crude is down over 5% in the first three trading days of the month. WTI is 0.6% higher at $65.54/bbl following a high of $65.63. Brent is up 0.6% to $66.90/bbl after reaching $66.94. The USD index is down 0.1%.
Gold Turns At Initial Resistance Level
Gold prices are down 0.25% to $3372.2/oz during today’s APAC session, pressured by stronger risk appetite, after rising 2.8% over the first three trading days of August. They reached a high of $3385.40 early in the session and then trended lower to $3373.24 pressured by slightly higher US long-end yields. The USD index is down 0.1% though.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 06/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Manufacturing Orders | |
| 06/08/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI | |
| 06/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | Industrial Production | |
| 06/08/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | |
| 06/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 06/08/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 06/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 06/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US DOE Petroleum Supply | |
| 06/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result | |
| 06/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | ||
| 06/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | ||
| 06/08/2025 | 1910/1510 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | ||
| 07/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 07/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 07/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 07/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | Flash Inflation Report | |
| 07/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | Foreign Trade | |
| 07/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1130/1230 | BOE Press Conference | ||
| 07/08/2025 | - | *** | Trade | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1300/1400 | BOE Decision Maker Panel Data BOE Decision Maker Panel Data |