MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Putin Doubles Down*

*Updated Figure 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• PUTIN DOUBLES DOWN ON HIS CORE UKRAINE DEMANDS - BBC
• CANADA FAST TRACKS OIL PIPELINE LINKING ALBERTA TO ASIA - MNI
• JAPAN'S FACTORY OUTPUT POSTS SECOND STRAIGHT RISE - MNI
• KOREA LOOKS AT TAX INCENTIVES FOR SMALL CAPS - BBG
• CME FUTURES TRADING STOPPED FRIDAY AFTER DATA CENTER GLITCH - BBG 

Fig 1:  Tokyo Services CPI YoY 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MN

EU

UKRAINE (BBC):”President Vladimir Putin has doubled down on his core demands for ending the war in Ukraine, saying Russia will lay down arms only if Kyiv's troops withdraw from territory claimed by Moscow.”

SWITZERLAND (BBG): "Swiss voters are poised to reject an inheritance tax proposal targeting super-rich residents, mindful of the risk of an exodus from one of Europe’s most alluring havens for billionaires."

US

TRADING (BBG): "Trading of futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange halted on Friday due to a technical issue at its data centers, according to a Singapore-based spokesperson for CME Group." 

US/VENEZUELA (AFP): “US President Donald Trump said Thursday that efforts to halt Venezuelan drug trafficking "by land" would begin "very soon," further ratcheting up tensions with Caracas, which claims the anti-drug campaign aims at regime change.” 

MIGRATION (BBG): "President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that “immigration policy has eroded” national progress and that he would “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the US system to fully recover.”' 

CANADA

Oil (MNI): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday fast-tracked a pipeline linking Alberta's heavy crude oil to buyers in Asia, designating it a project of national interest over the objections of British Columbia in a bid to reduce reliance on the U.S.

OTHER

SOUTH KOREA (BBG): “South Korea’s small-cap Kosdaq Index climbs as much as 2.5% after a local media report that the government will announce tax incentives and other measures to boost the market.”  

JAPAN

ECONOMY (MNI BRIEF): Japan Oct Factory Output Posts 2nd Straight Rise.  Japan’s industrial output rose 1.4% m/m in October for a second straight increase, following a 2.6% rise in September, driven by higher production of automobiles, electrical machinery, and information and communication electronics equipment, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Friday.

ECONOMY(MNI BRIEF): Japan Nov Tokyo Core CPI Rises 2.8% Vs. Oct 2.8%.   The year-on-year rise in Tokyo core inflation in November was unchanged from October at 2.8% and remained above 2% for the 13th consecutive month, data from Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed on Friday.

CHINA 

MNI China Press Digest Nov 28: Sino-U.S., Yuan, Consumption

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY73.7 Bln via OMO Friday

MARKET DATA

NEW ZEALAND:  ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MoM NOVEMBER 6.5%; PRIOR -2.3%

NEW ZEALAND: ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX NOVEMBER 98.4; PRIOR 92.4

NEW ZEALAND FILLED JOBS SA MoM: 0.0%; PRIOR 0.2% (REVISED DOWN)

AUSTRALIA PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT MoM OCTOBER 0.7%; PRIOR 0.6%

AUSTRALIA PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT YoY OCTOBER 7.3%; PRIOR 7.2%

SOUTH KOREA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YOY OCTOBER -8.1%; PRIOR 11.9% (REVISED UP)

SOUTH KOREA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SA MoM -4.0%; PRIOR -1.1% (REVISED UP)

SOUTH KOREA CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE OCT 0.0; PRIOR 0.1

MARKETS

US TSYS: Bond Futures Down; 10-Yr UST Back Above 4%

US bond futures had a low volume day today as expected with the 10-Yr down -03 at 113-15+.  TYZ5 maintains its position above all moving averages with the 20-day EMA below at 113-01+ and up for the week by +0-10.

Cash is lower with yields 1-1.5bps higher across the curve. The movement higher in yield takes the 10-Yr back above 4.00%. This is the fourth time over the last two months the 10-Yr has traded below the 4.00% level, but has been unable to maintain it there for very long.

• The US 2-Yr is at 3.495% - +1.6bps
• The US 5-Yr is at 3.579% - +0.9bps
• The US 10-Yr is at 4.013% - +1.7bps
• The US 30-Yr is at 4.658% - +1.5bps

It is widely anticipated that the market will remain quiet overnight with no auctions scheduled until next week, or economic data releases.

JGBS: Cheaper With 10Y Leading, 10YY Back At Cycle Highs

JGB futures are weaker, -17 compared to settlement levels.

• The 2-year bond auction delivered weak results today. The low price cleared below the Bloomberg-surveyed forecast of 100.05, while the cover ratio dropped to 3.5310x from 4.4665x. The tail also lengthened to 0.012 from 0.002 last month.
• Reuters reported yesterday that the Japanese government will increase issuance of 2-year and 5-year JGBs from January, with around ¥100bn of additional supply in each tenor. There are no changes expected for 10–40-year issuance.
• Japan's Nov Tokyo CPI print was fairly close to market expectations.
• Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session, but volumes have been light given Thursday's Thanksgiving Day Holiday.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 2.5bps across benchmarks, with the 10-year underperforming. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.5bps higher at 1.826% versus the cycle high of 1.84%. (see chart)
• Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q3 Capital Spending, Q3 Company Sales and S&P Global PMI Mfg alongside a BOJ Governor Ueda Speech in Nagoya.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, AU-US 10Y Diff Keeps Pushing Wider

ACGBs (YM -4.5 & XM -3.0) are cheaper and hovering near session lows.

• Private credit rose 0.7% m/m (estimate +0.6%) in October versus +0.6% in September. Private credit rose 7.3% y/y versus a revised +7.2% in September.
• Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session, but volumes have been light given Thursday's Thanksgiving Day Holiday.
• Cash ACGBs are 4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +52bps. Today’s move has extended the differential’s push above the ±30bps range that had persisted since November 2022 (see chart).
• The bills strip is -2 to -6 across contracts, with a steepening bias.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is showing a 25bp rate cut in December at a 0% probability. Notably, the market has shifted to giving a 44% probability to 25bp easing by December 2026.
• On Monday, the local calendar will see Cotality Home Values, S&P Global PMI Mfg, Melbourne Institute Inflation, and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements monthly data, and Q3 Company Operating Profit and Inventories.
• Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond on Friday.

Bloomberg Finance LP

BONDS: NZGBS: Sell-Off Extends, NZ-US 10Y Diff 25Bps Wider In 10 Days

NZGBs closed cheaper, with the benchmark yields 2-7bps higher, led by the 5-year. After today’s move, yields are 11-24bps higher than Wednesday’s pre-RBNZ Decision levels. 

• Updated projections by the RBNZ showed the OCR at 2.25% in Q1 (with only one meeting in the quarter on 18 February), then 2.20% in Q2 and 2.23% in Q3, implying the RBNZ is effectively on hold if the economy evolves as expected. The profile maintains optionality, and outgoing Governor Hawkesby emphasized that the 2.20% projection reflects an easing bias.
• Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session, but volumes have been light given Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day Holiday.
• The NZ-US 10-year yield differential widened again today, albeit by 1bp, to +25bps. For context, the differential was around flat 10 days ago. (see chart)
• Swap rates closed 6-9bps higher.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 2bps of easing remains priced for February, while November 2026 has 29bps of tightening priced.
• On Monday, the local calendar will see Building Permits data. 

Bloomberg Finance LP

FOREX: USD - BBDXY Move Lower Stalls Toward 1218

The BBDXY has had a range today of 1218.76 - 1220.19 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1219, +0.05%. A very subdued Friday Asian session for currencies to end the week. This week the standout has been the huge bounce in global risk together with a repricing of more potential US rate cuts. The USD has played catch up to this but has found some bids initially around the 1218 area overnight stalling the move in a quiet overnight session thanks to the US being off. On the day I suspect a range of 1218-1224 should cover a subdued end of the week as we move back toward the middle or lower end of the 1210-1230 range, first support seen toward 1218 and then the 1208-1214 area.

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1582 - 1.1602, Asia is currently trading 1.1590. The pair is consolidating just below 1.1600. On the day I suspect dips could now be supported first up as the market tries to work through the resistance around 1.1600-25, above here and the focus could turn back toward the 1.1700 area.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3229 - 1.3245, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3240. The pair is consolidating its recent gains around 1.3250. I remain skewed toward shorts but I feel this move does signal the need to be patient as it could first move a little higher. I will be watching the price action back toward 1.3300-1.3400 for signs of a top should we get back up there.
• Cross asset : SPX +0.40%, Gold $4185, US 10-Year 4.006%, BBDXY 1219, Crude Oil $59.10
• Data/Events : Germany Retail Sales/Unemployment Change/CPI, France CPI/PPI/GDP, Spain CPI/Retail Sales/Current Account Balance, EZ ECB 1&3 Yr CPI Expectations, Italy GDP/CPI

Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: USD/JPY - Holding Above 156.00, Support Back Towards 154-155

The USD/JPY range today has been 156.10 - 156.58 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 156.20, -0.05%. The pair has traded sideways in a very subdued session. The move in the Yen looks like it might force the BOJ into action in December and we now have the market pricing in imminent cuts in the US. This could have an impact or at least slow what looked like a situation that was about to get out hand. Technically USD/JPY continues to look like it wants to test higher with the first big support back toward the 154-155 area which I suspect would be bought at first. Look for the consolidation to continue as the market contemplates if these moves by central banks are going to be enough to challenge the weakening Yen trajectory. 

• MNI AU - Nov Tokyo CPI Close To Forecast, Services Y/Y Steady At 1.56% y/y: Japan's Nov Tokyo CPI print was fairly close to market expectations. Headline rose 2.7%y/y, in line with the consensus (while the Oct outcome was also revised down to this level, from 2.8%). Ex fresh food and energy printed 2.8%y/y (a touch above the 2.7% forecast), while the ex fresh food, energy measure was 2.8%y/y, in line with the prior and consensus forecast for today. We are off earlier 2025 highs, but remain close to 3%.
• MNI AU - Job-To-Applicant Ratio Downtrend Continues, Risking Higher U/E Rates: Japan Oct jobless rate and job to applicant ratio figures were weaker than expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 2.6%, against a market forecast of 2.5%. The job to applicant ratio ticked down further to 1.18, versus 1.20 forecast (which was also the Sep outcome). The continued trend decline in the job-to-applicant ratio points to further upside in the unemployment rate, all else equal. This will be a watch point for the authorities, given on-going focus around positive real wage gains and the importance of this in sustainably reaching the 2% inflation target. It will be hoped the government's stimulus package gives the economy a boost as we progress into 2026.
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 154.00($665m),156.50($516m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($2.25b Dec 2) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 95 Points

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD/USD - Consolidates Above 0.6500, Support Likely Toward 0.6490-0.6510

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6530 - 0.6541 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6535, +0.05%. The AUD/USD has had a very quiet session albeit with a slight bid undertone. The AUD is consolidating above 0.6500 and is looking to test the pivot toward 0.6550-60 within its wider 0.6350-0.6700 range. On the day, I suspect dips on the day back toward 0.6490-0.6510 continue to remain supported, a sustained break above the 0.6560 area is needed to potentially signal a move toward the top-end of its range. It could be a very quiet Friday unless we get an unforeseen catalyst.

• “Australia Oct. Private Credit Rises 0.7% M/m, Est. +0.6%. Australia's private credit rose more than economists expected in October. Estimates ranged from +0.4% to +0.7%, 13 economists.” - BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6600(AUD420m), 0.6400(AUD325m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6800(AUD532m Dec 2) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 37 Points

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD/USD - Drifts Lower, Look For Support Toward 0.5680/0.5700

The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5719 - 0.5732 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5720, -0.15%. The NZD/USD has drifted a little lower in a very subdued session. Positioning still feels like it could be an issue in the short term. While the risk backdrop remains constructive this should provide further headwinds for the NZD shorts and I suspect we see more of the weaker hands pressured. On the day I suspect dips back toward 0.5680/0.5700 will be supported, as the market turns its focus toward 0.5760 first then the more important 0.6800-50 resistance. I suspect a quiet day all things being equal.

• MNI AU - ANZ Consumer Sentiment Bounces, Capping Off Strong NZ Data Week: The Nov ANZ consumer sentiment index bounced 6.5%m/m, to 98.4. This puts the index just short of 2025 highs, although we aren't above the 100.0 level yet. The sentiment backdrop is suggesting modestly positive growth, although it's likely we need further higher readings to point to accelerating momentum in consumption. It does cap off a solid recent run of NZ data this week, with retail sales volumes up in Q3 and yesterday's ANZ business activity/confidence readings surging to multi year highs.
• "RBNZ updates its Kiwi-GDP nowcast estimate for 3q GDP growth, showing GDP expanding 0.8% q/q. Gauge rises from 0.6% a week earlier, and is highest since began in early June" - via BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5650(NZD300m), 0.5550(NZD300m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5575(NZD547m Dec 3), 0.5940(NZD427m Dec 1) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 41 Points

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: US Rate Cut Underpins Sentiment, Mixed End to November

Expectations that the US will cut rates at the December meeting continue to underpin investor sentiment across the region in what was a mostly positive day.  News out of Korea gave the KOSDAQ a boost after The Korea Economic Daily reported that the government is seeking to implement tax incentives for KOSDAQ venture funds and exempting pension funds and foreign institutional investors from taxes on stock trading.  Tech stocks are still key in investors minds with many key tech names down today, yet overall for the month returns continue to be strong.  Despite falls for the HSI, Alibaba's release of smart glasses powered by AI saw its stock jump in Hong Kong.  The key themes for Japanese stocks on November 28, 2025, were mixed market performance, persistent inflation figures, a weakening yen, and concerns over the economic impact of rising tensions with China.  Chinese stocks continue to have the persistent property market concerns over them, sparked by debt issues at developer China Vanke. Reports in local press suggest that further policy support for the property sector could be expedited given Vanke's woes.  This weighed down the mainland and Hong Kong markets, despite some positive long-term economic plans announced by Beijing.

• The NIKKEI finished November with barely a whimper, down just -0.07% to 50,125; and down just -0.18% for the month.  The NIKKEI remains over 4% below the October high for the year with signs that investors are rotating out of tech into broader sector allocations.
• China's major bourses were mixed today the the Hang Seng down -0.22%, whilst onshore bourses are all up.  Vanke's worries weighed heavy on other property stocks in Hong Kong with China Overseas Land the biggest faller.  Shenzhen is up the most with gains of +0.70% today, with Shanghai and CSI 300 up around 0.20%.  For the month all major China bourses are lower with losses between 1.80-3.50% as the CSI 300 underperformed its onshore peers in November.
• The KOSPI finished November on the back foot as attention was elsewhere on taxation news.  The KOSP is down -1.3% today taking it's November declines to -1.9%.  The falls are on the back of over 25% gains in the last two months and likely are as much a reflection of profit taking than anything else.  
• SE Asia's bourses were mixed Friday with Malaysia and Jakarta falling whilst the SE Thai delivered gains.  The FTSE Malay KLCI opened quite timidly before the selloff picked up steam to be down -0.70% whilst the JCI fell -0.32%.  For November the JCI was the star with gains above 5% whilst the FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.45% and the SE THai over 4%.  
• The NIFTY 50 has started Friday off slowly touching a new high of 26,234 on modest gains of 0.05%.  Markets continue to wait for news of US trade deal yet are pushing ahead as economic data remains robust.  For November, the NIFTY is up over 1% and over 8% for the year.  

OIL: OPEC+ and Ukraine News Dominate After Poor Month for Oil

• Oil is up Friday in the Asia trading day with WTI posting gains of +0.73% to reach US$59.08.   The gains sees WTI on track for a weekly gain, though November remains a very poor month with losses over -3%.  
• Brent is up +0.25% Friday and near +1.5% for the week but down over 2% for the month.  The move higher for Brent sees it near to the 20-day EMA of US$63.62 having traded below in the middle of the month.  

• Oil prices are looking for a new catalyst and as the White House's optimism over a potential peace deal for Ukraine - and what that means for Russian supply of oil. The US Special Envoy Witkoff leads a delegation to Moscow next week with President Putin suggesting that the proposed deal still requires some amendments. Crude stocks stored at Russian oil fields rose to levels seen only twice since the country's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, a sign that recent US sanctions are biting. More than 16 million barrels of crude was being held in storage tanks at oil fields as of Nov 20 and Nov 21, according to a person familiar with the data. (per BBG)
• OPEC+ meets over the weekend with little new news expected. Earlier this month eight of OPEC+ members agreed to a limit further new output in Q1 next year on concerns of oversupply.
• Petrobras has cut its 5-Year investment plan by 2% as oil price declines impact their forward forecasts.  

Gold Set for Another Strong Month of Gains

• Gold has has a solid start to Friday in Asia with gains of +0.73% to US$4,188.06.  
• Gold in on track for another weekly gain, currently up just on 3% and over 4.6% for November and maintains its position above all major moving averages, with the 20-day EMA below at US$4,099.

• Gold's fortunes at present are strongly correlated with US rate cut hopes and with US Treasury traders off for Thanksgiving, gold had little new queues overnight.
• The India Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) is planning to permit investment in gold and silver exchange traded funds, according to the chairman of the regulatory body (per BBG)
• Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 forecast for gold to an average of $4,450 an ounce over the year, up from $4,000 previously. Goldman Sachs last month boosted its projection for the end of next year to $4,900 an ounce from $4,300, citing ETF inflows and central-bank buying. (per BBG)

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL) 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
28/11/2025	0700/0800	***	SE	GDP
28/11/2025	0700/0800	**	SE	Retail Sales
28/11/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Import/Export Prices
28/11/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Retail Sales
28/11/2025	0745/0845	***	FR	HICP (p)
28/11/2025	0745/0845	**	FR	PPI
28/11/2025	0745/0845	***	FR	GDP (f)
28/11/2025	0745/0845	**	FR	Consumer Spending
28/11/2025	0745/0845		FR	Payrolls
28/11/2025	0800/0900	***	ES	HICP (p)
28/11/2025	0800/0900	**	CH	KOF Economic Barometer
28/11/2025	0800/0900	***	CH	GDP
28/11/2025	0855/0955	**	DE	Unemployment
28/11/2025	0900/1000	***	IT	GDP (f)
28/11/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	Bavaria CPI
28/11/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
28/11/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	Baden Wuerttemberg CPI
28/11/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
28/11/2025	1000/1100	***	IT	Italy Flash Inflation
28/11/2025	1300/1400	***	DE	Germany CPI (p)
28/11/2025	1300/1400	***	DE	Germany CPI (p)
28/11/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts
28/11/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
28/11/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined
28/11/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
28/11/2025	1600/1100		CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)