MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: US PCE In Focus Later

• Japan Tokyo CPI printed below forecasts, although services y/y was still solid. Japan also revised down July's real wages growth back into negative territory. JGB futures remain up from recent lows, while USD/JPY is little changed today.
• Trump announced tariffs on trucks, as well as household products, along with pharmaceuticals.  
• US yields have edged higher, while gold and oil are tracking higher for the week.
• Later the US PCE prints, along with final Sep read for the U of Mich sentiment print. 

MARKETS

US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Mixed In A Quiet Friday Session

The TYZ5 range has been 112-09 to 112-13+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-11, up 0-00+ from the previous close. 

• The US 2-year yield has edged lower trading 3.647%, down 0.01 from its close.
• The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.174%.
• 10-Year yields extended their retracement higher moving towards the 4.20% area, I suspect buyers should be around 4.20% initially and look to fade the move higher. Only a move back above 4.35%/4.40% would negate the downtrend.
• Nick Timiraos on X: “Every living former Fed chair (Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen) … have joined several former Treasury secretaries (Rubin, Summers, Paulson, Geithner, Lew)... and CEA chairs (Hubbard, Mankiw, Romer, Furman, Rouse, Bernstein) who served presidents of both parties … in an amicus brief to the Supreme Court warning a ruling against Lisa Cook's ability to stay in her job would significantly erode Fed independence.”
• Andy Constan on X: “Less than 4 cuts priced into the next 10 Fed meetings of which the Trump nominated chair will be chair for 5 of them. How exactly is the market pricing in a policy mistake?”
• Luke Gromen on X: “TRUMP v. FED, IN ONE EASY CHART. To paraphrase Richard Gere in "An Officer and a Gentleman": "I got nothing else to cut...I GOT NOTHING ELSE TO CUT!" See Graph Below.

• Data/Events:  Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey, Personal Income, PCE Price Index, Core PCE Price Index, U. of Mich. Sentiment, Kansas City Fed Services Activity

  Fig 1: Largest Outlays

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/@LukeGromen/Treasury TBAC
   

JGBS: JGB Futures Edge Higher Post Data, US-JP 10yr Diff Up From Recent Lows

JGB futures sit modestly higher, last 135.86, +.04 versus settlement levels. Data outcomes today have lent support to futures. US 10yr futures are little changed, but JGBs have lagged the recent softness in the US 10yr. The US-JP government bond yield spread was last +252bps, up from recent lows of +245bps.

• Despite today's JGB futures gain, a bear threat remains from a technical standpoint. The latest sell-off has also resulted in a break of support at 136.19, the Sep 4 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 135.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high.
• On the data front, earlier we had the Tokyo CPI print, which came in well below forecast. The headline and core measures printing at 2.5%y/y. Services prices were down in the month, but still up 2.0% y/y. Elsewhere headlines crossed that Japan's July wages data have been revised lower. Via Rtrs: "Japan revised real wages in July to a 0.2% fall from a previously reported growth of 0.5%", while nominal growth was revised down to 3.4%y/y, after originally being reported as a 4.1% gain. The trend in real wage y/y momentum is positive, but is coming from a noticeably lower base that originally thought.
• These outcomes today are likely to reinforce, at the margin, the BoJ's wait and see approach.
• In the cash JGB space, yields are little changed across the curve. We saw some early softness for the back end, but this had no follow through. The 10yr was last around 1.65%. The 2/30s curve was last +221bps, slightly steeper for the session.
• Next week the main focus will be on the Tankan survey out on Wednesday. The market expects a resilient to slightly better backdrop large manufacturing firms, while capex is seen at +11.0% (prior was 11.5%).

JAPAN DATA: Tokyo CPI Below Forecast, Likely Adding To BoJ Wait & See Approach

Tokyo Sep CPI was noticeably weaker than forecast. All three inflation measures - headline, core ex fresh food, and core ex fresh food and energy, printed at 2.5%y/y. Expectations were in the 2.8-2.9% region. The core ex fresh food, energy measure was 3.0%y/y in August, so this is a noticeable slowdown. The chart below shows all three measures, which now sit comfortably off recent highs. 

• In m/m terms, the headline measure fell 0.1%m/m, while ex fresh food was down 0.2% and the measure which also excludes energy fell by 0.3% in the month. Goods prices rose 0.2%m/m, but services fell by 0.4% (which has been and remains a BoJ watch point).
• The measure which excludes all food and energy fell by 0.7% in the month, although this is not seasonally adjusted.
• Looking at the sub sectors, drags came from utilities, -1.6%m/m (although the Aug fall was 5.1%). Entertainment fell by 2.6%m/m, after a 2.2% gain in Aug. Transport was down 0.7%m/m, while household goods fell by 0.6%.
• Food was up 0.6%m/m, with fresh food +3.3%, while clothing and footwear rose 3.3%.
• BBG notes: "The Tokyo government’s move to expand free daycare and lower water costs exerted a drag on the index, while energy prices pushed up the index due to year-on-year comparisons exaggerated by utility subsidies.'
• Still, in y/y terms, only 3 categories have a pace above 2% y/y (food at 6.1%, clothing at 4.0% and transport at 3.2%).
• The data likely adds to the case for the BoJ to maintain a wait and see approach around policy in the near term. 

Fig 1: Tokyo Sep CPI Trends Softer Than Expected 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

JAPAN DATA: Offshore Investors Continue To Cut Back On Japan Equity Holdings

The standout from Japan's weekly flow update (to Sep 19, last Friday) was further net selling by offshore investors of local stocks. We have now seen net selling by these investors in 4 out of the last 5 weeks. We have seen nearly ¥5trln in net selling over this period. This follows a very strong period of net inflows, dating back to the start of April this year. Indeed, including the most recent outflows, net inflows since the start of April still stand at +¥6.6trln. Japan equities remain firmly higher for Sep, but momentum has slowed somewhat in terms of recent trends. Offshore investors added to local bonds last week, but only very modestly. 

• In terms of Japan outbound flows, were saw continued net buying of overseas bonds by local investors. In the past four weeks we have seen just under ¥4trln in net buying of overseas bonds. The focus will be on whether this trend continues for this week, given global bond returns are off recent highs (as US Tsy yields have rebounded somewhat).
• Local investors also bought overseas equities but in very modest size.  

Table 1: Japan Offshore Weekly Investment Flows 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

AUSSIE BONDS: Futures Maintain Negative Bias, RBA Next Week - Seen On Hold

Aussie bonds futures are holding a negative bias as Friday trade unfolds. 3yr (YM) futures are down 4bps, last at 96.385, with 10yr futures (XM) off by 3.5bps to 95.575. We are slightly up from session lows for both benchmarks. 

• This keeps the recent downside bias in futures intact. For the 10yr, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 95.510, the Sep 3 low.
• In the cash ACGB space, we are holding around 2-3bps firmer across the curve (except the 30y, up 1bps). The 3yr yield last around 3.58%. We did get close to 3.60% in the first part of trade, fresh highs since mid May. The 10yr was last near 4.37%.
• The ACGB 3/10s curve is under 80bps, but little changed so far today. SocGen sees risks of a flatter curve in light of recent firmer data outcomes/potentially more hawkish RBA (via BBG).
• The AU-US 10yr spread is back above +20bps, up around 3bps so far today.
• All focus next week will be on the RBA outcome, due on Tuesday. Any chance of a move was removed this week with a firmer monthly Aug CPI backdrop. the sell-side consensus is for no change as well. Focus is likely to be on the outlook for the final two meetings of this year. Per WIRP we have Dec OIS pricing at around 3.44%, implying a 16bps reduction in rates from the current effective RBA rate of 3.60%. Prior to this week's CPI print we had around 22bps priced in.

BONDS: NZGBS: Yields Off Earlier Highs, NZ-US 10yr Spread Down To +5bps

The early positive impetus for NZGB yields has cooled as Friday's session has progressed, particularly towards the back end of the curve. The 2 and 5yr benchmarks are still up over 1bps, but the rest of the curve is closer to unchanged. The 2yr outright yield, last 3.385%, while the 10yr was around 4.21%. The 10yr did get close to 4.24% in the first part of trade. 

• The NZ 2/10s curve is a touch flatter around +148bps. The NZ-US 10yr spread is down close to 2bps, last near +5bps. This is close to multi month lows. The 2yr swap rate is back under 2.53%.
• In general, NZ yields have lagged both US and Australian developments, with poorer data outcomes/dovish RBNZ expectations in play in recent weeks. The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread has surged toward +90bps.
• On the data front, we had the ANZ Sep consumer confidence index print earlier. The index rose 2.8% in Sep, putting the index back up to 94.6 (from 92.0 in Aug). The improvement will be welcome, but we still sit off recent highs from late 2024. More broadly it doesn't suggest much change to the consumer spending backdrop in the near term.
• Looking ahead to next week, Monday delivers filled jobs for Aug, while Tuesday sees the ANZ activity and business confidence outlook for Sep.

NEW ZEALAND: ANZ Consumer Sentiment Rises, But Still Sub Recent Highs

The ANZ New Zealand consumer sentiment index rose 2.8% in Sep, putting the index back up to 94.6 (from 92.0 in Aug). The improvement will be welcome, but we still sit off recent highs from late 2024. The chart below plots the sentiment index (the orange line) against the household consumption measure (q/q) from NZ's national accounts. So even after today's rise, it doesn't suggest a significant change to the broader consumer spending backdrop. 

• In terms of the detail, the outlook for the economy 1yr ahead was -23, from -20 in Aug. For 5yrs ahead, the outlook improved to +6, from +3 prior. Buying a major household item was -11, versus -12 in Aug.
• Via BBG, ANZ post the release: "“Our view continues to be that the release of Q2 GDP marked peak pessimism. Easier monetary policy is starting to feed through, and we expect the economy to put in a markedly improved performance over the next 12 months than the last – though that isn’t saying a lot.”

Fig 1: NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Against Q/Q Household Consumption Growth 

Source: ANZ/Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Challenging Leveraged Shorts Into Corp Month-End

The BBDXY has had a range of 1207.36 - 1208.86 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1207, -0.10%. The USD has built on its gains above 1200, with the stronger US data seeing it surge up towards the 1210 area. The price action suggests the market has been caught over its skis in terms of positioning and is having to scale back shorts. Next resistance is back towards the 1215-1225 area where I would expect sellers to remerge initially. The big question is at what level do the global asset managers return to selling for hedging purposes, at the moment the shorter-term leveraged crowd is being squeezed. Corporate month-end continues today and should add to the USD tailwinds underpinning the move higher in the short-term.

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1658 - 1.1682, Asia is currently trading 1.1680. The pair has broken through its initial support around 1.1700, this could signal a deeper correction back to the 1.1550 area first and then potentially 1.1350/1.1400.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3330 - 1.3355, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3355. The pair has regained momentum lower and is pressing its first support around the 1.3300 area, a break below here opens up a move back to the 1.3100 area. The market should be looking for bounces to fade.
• USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1404 - 7.1457, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1152, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1410. The pair has found demand towards the 7.1000 area and is looking to potentially revert back to the mean. Expect sellers first up but a move back above 7.15/16 is needed to potentially signal a deeper correction. Though sellers should be around again on any bounce back toward the 7.2000/2200 area.  A move above 7.2500 is needed to see a test of the USD Shorts conviction.
• Cross asset : SPX -0.05%, Gold $3745, US 10-Year 4.172%, BBDXY 1207, Crude Oil $65.21
• Data/Events : Spain GDP, EZ ECB 1&3 Year CPI Expectations, Italy Consumer Confidence Index/Economic Sentiment

Fig 1: BBDXY Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: Asia Wrap- USD/JPY Drifts Off 150.00, Dips To Be Supported After Breaks 149

The USD/JPY range has been 149.63 - 149.96 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 149.70, -0.07%. The USD surged higher across the board on stronger data overnight. This gave USD/JPY the momentum it needed to break through the 149.00 area and extend higher. The pair should now see buyers on dips and the focus will turn toward the pivotal 151-152 area. The corporate month-end continues today and this should keep demand for the USD underpinned in the short-term but the USD’s reaction to the data does potentially point to a positional problem. The other thing that stands out is with risk pulling back the market is no longer trading the JPY as a safe haven for the moment. Some Jaw-Boning from officials today but I suspect they will not enter the market until we are back above 155.00 again.

• MNI AU - Tokyo CPI Below Forecast, Likely Adding To BoJ Wait & See Approach: Tokyo Sep CPI was noticeably weaker than forecast. All three inflation measures - headline, core ex fresh food, and core ex fresh food and energy, printed at 2.5%y/y. Expectations were in the 2.8-2.9% region. The core ex fresh food, energy measure was 3.0%y/y in August, so this is a noticeable slowdown.
• "Japan revised real wages in July to a 0.2% fall from a previously reported growth of 0.5%, a labour ministry release showed on Friday. With the revision, Japan's inflation-adjusted real pay has been logging contraction for seven consecutive months, casting doubt on the Bank of Japan's ability to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy. After the revision, July's nominal wages or total cash earnings rose 3.4% from the same month a year before, down from the preliminary reading of 4.1% gain." RTRS
• "KATO: WE'RE CURRENTLY NOT INTERVENING IN FX MARKET, WILL REFRAIN FROM COMMENTING ON CURRENT FX MOVES" - BBG
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 149.00($771m), 152.00($1.67b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 146.50($1.09b Oct 1) - BBG.

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Consolidates Below 0.6550, Eyes 0.6500 Support

The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6531 - 0.6541 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6540, +0.05%. US stocks took another leg lower and the USD accelerated higher on much stronger US data. The AUD support around 0.6580 gave way and the pair then moved lower very quickly overnight, closing around -0.65%. The first buy-zone is just below the 0.6500 area and we should see some buyers return towards here initially, but the price action in the USD would be a concern as it again points to a positional problem. Corporate month-end flows should continue today adding to the USD’s tailwinds so the probability is skewed to a test of the 0.6500 area at some point. The crosses remain the best place to express AUD outperformance for now.

• Bloomberg - “Sizzling Aussie Auction May Show Bond Slump Reaching Limits. The sale of A$900m of November 2029 notes recorded a coverage ratio of 5.97, it went off very nicely with the strongest demand for any offering since October 2024. That signals that the post-CPI sell-off for the country’s government bonds may have gone far enough as yields hit levels to entice buy-and-hold investors.”
• “Dollar Holds Steady Before Key Inflation Reading. “The risk is PCE inflation surprises to the upside, causing the market to pare back pricing of FOMC rate cuts and pushing up the USD, especially against the backdrop of resilient economic growth,” Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note.” - BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6600(AUD478m), 0.6625(AUD364m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6625(AUD1.29b Sept 29), 0.6700(AUD1.64b Oct 1), 0.6725(AUD1.19bm Sept 29) - BBG
• CFTC Data last week shows Asset managers started to significantly reduce their shorts, -41095(Last -68333). The Leveraged community has pulled back their shorts to be almost flat, -1519(Last -5081).
• AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 97.83 - 98.03, Asia is trading around 97.95.  The pair found solid demand back towards 97.00 and bounced this week with the help of the AU CPI print. While above 97.00 the focus will remain on September’s highs toward 98.50.

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Focus Turns Lower After Breaking Below 0.5800

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5756 - 0.5776 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5865, +0.02%. US stocks took another leg lower and the USD accelerated higher on much stronger US data. The NZD broke through its pivotal 0.5800 support on the back this and extended lower. The price action in the USD stands out and there could be a positional problem, this together with the clear break of the support should see the NZD continue to be sold on rallies. First sell zone would be just above 0.5800, though corporate month-end continues today and this should keep demand for the USD underpinned.

• MNI: Markets Overestimating Lower OCR - Ex-RBNZ Officials. New Zealand’s Q2 GDP miss is unlikely to push the Reserve Bank to lower the 3% Official Cash Rate below 2.5% without weaker inflation data, former RBNZ officials told MNI, noting recent market pricing had likely overreacted to the economic growth miss
• (Bloomberg) -- RBNZ reduced its foreign currency intervention capacity to NZ$26.1b at the end of August, according to data released by the central bank on its website. Total foreign currency assets dropped to NZ$39b from NZ$39.2b in July. The RBNZ’s net open foreign currency position increased to NZ$8.6b.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5855(NZD305m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5785(NZD754m Sept 30), 0.5875(NZD372m Sept 30) - BBG
• CFTC Data of last week shows Asset Managers beginning to rebuild their short positions in the NZD, -11933(Last -3121). The Leveraged community is doing the same as it looks to rebuild its own shorts, -5327(Last -1874). Positioning shows the market is again turning bearish on the NZD.
• AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.1330 - 1.1351, currently trading around 1.1340. The Cross has broken above the multiple highs around the 1.1200 area and is beginning to accelerate higher, helped by the AU CPI print. Dips should now continue to be supported as the market turns its focus towards the 1.1400/1.1500 area.

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: Trump Targets Semi Conductors and Pharma

The Trump administration is seeking to become  more self sufficient in the production of semiconductors rather than being reliance on semiconductors made overseas, hoping to spur domestic manufacturing and reshape global supply chains (as reported in WSJ)  This comes as the US announced Friday that 100% tariffs will be levied on pharmaceutical products, seemingly targeting China and India.  The semi-conductor news saw the likes of TSMC down -1.50% and Samsung -4.30% whilst Pharma companies in India.  Market leaders like Dr. Reddy's, Aurobindo Pharma, Zydus Lifesciences, Sun Pharma and Gland Pharma derive between 30-50% of their overall revenues from the American market with some down 3-4% this week.

• China's key bourses have had a weak end Friday, falling across the board.  The HSI is down -0.65% and is down -0.87% for the week.  The CSI 300 is down -0.42% but up +1.60% for the week, Shanghai down -0.18% but up +0.69% for the week and Shenzhen down -0.56% but up +0.91% for th week.  
• Having hit new highs earlier in the week, the NIKKEI gave back today with falls of -0.46%.  It remains however up 0.55% for the week, having hit a new high of 45,754.
• The TAIEX in Taiwan got dragged lower by TSMC and the semi conductor sector in general and is down -1.95% today, wiping out earlier weekly gains to be down -0.21%.  
• The KOSPI has been hit hard by the semi conductor sector falls and is down -2.9% today, wiping out all of the gains for the week.  
• The FTSE Malay KLCI has done very little all week yet has eked out gains of +0.45% today.  
• The Jakarta Composite is up +0.38% today and +0.25% despite the challenges for the currency.
• The NIFTY 50 has opened Friday down -0.40% and is down -2.2% for the week.  

ASIA STOCKS: Weekly Flows Overall Negative

Following periods of inflows, regional flows have turned negative over the last week with South Korea the only exception.  

• South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$178m yesterday,  bringing the 5-day total to +$280m. 2025 to date flows are -$ 627m. The 5-day average is +$56m, the 20-day average is +$249m and the 100-day average of +$116m.
• Taiwan: Had outflows of -$206m yesterday, with total outflows of -$873 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are positive at +$7,969m. The 5-day average is -$175m, the 20-day average of +$377m and the 100-day average of +$233m.
• India: Had outflows of -$210m as of the 24th, with total outflows of -$532m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$15,824m.  The 5-day average is -$106m, the 20-day average of -$152m and the 100-day average of -$35m.
• Indonesia: Had outflows of -$60m yesterday, with total inflows of +$444m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$3,274m.  The 5-day average is +$89m, the 20-day average -$14m and the 100-day average -$2m.
• Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$26m yesterday, with inflows totaling -$115m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,725m. The 5-day average is -$23m, the 20-day average of -$17m and the 100-day average of -$10m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows yesterday of -$53m, totaling -$49m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,733m. The 5-day average is -$10m, the 20-day average of -$15m and the 100-day average of -$10m.
• Philippines: Recorded inflows of +$10m yesterday,  with net inflows of +$125m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$600m. The 5-day average is +$25m, the 20-day average of +$4m the 100-day average of -$3m.

Oil Set for Weekly Gains on EU / Russian Tensions

• WTI is up by +0.20% in Asia today, consolidating gains and on track for weekly gains of over 3%.  
• Brent is up also today, by +0.13% and over 4% for the week, triggering key technical levels and reaching highest levels since early August.  
• Despite the realities of the increase in supply from OPEC+ members, the focus for oil for the week has been the mounting tensions between EU members and Russia.
• EU leaders have been clear in their message to Russia that a NATO alliance would be ready to respond to repeated violations of European airspace by Russia, predominantly with drones.
• This comes after President Trump said this week that NATO should shoot down any Russian aircraft that cross into European space. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered an urgent meeting of top military commanders for an unusual meeting early next week, fueling concerns over wider unrest that could imperil global crude flows.
• This political tension has given a bid to oil with a strong start to the trading week, though signs overnight that that strength is waning.
• Iraq's long standing disagreement with the Kurdistan region is close to ending after the federal government approved a deal that will see crude from Kurdistan be delivered to Iraq's state oil marketing company SOMO, which will handle shipments through a pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port. The resumption of shipments will add 230,000 barrels a day to international markets, rising to as much as half-a-million barrels a day in the future.

GOLD: Sixth Successive Week of Gains for Gold

• Gold's strength continued this week, despite small loses Friday.  
• Up over +1.6% for the week, gold has delivered gains in excess of 8% for the week.  
• For the year gold is up +43% marking one of the best years in several decades.  
• Gold jewelry sales in India are set to drop during the upcoming festival season, as record bullion prices push buyers toward less costly alternatives in one of the world’s largest markets.  Demand for ornaments is likely to drop by as much as 27% from a year ago in volume terms during the three-week buying period, according to Surendra Mehta, national secretary at the India Bullion and Jewelers Association. (per BBG)
• Gold's rally in September has taking it to overbought territory for the first time since the trade war uncertainty of April drove the precious metal higher.

ASIA FX: Most USD/Asia Pairs Up, Higher US Yields/Weaker Equities In Play

Asian currencies are mostly weaker against the USD in the first part of Friday. Aggregate moves aren't large at this stage, while some USD/Asia pairs are off earlier highs. A combination of catch up to dollars gain, higher US yields and some equity market softness, is aiding USD/Asia pairs so far today.  

• In NEA, USD/CNH sits a little lower, last around 7.1415. The pair continues to exhibit a low beta with respect to broader dollar shifts. USD/KRW and USD/TWD are rising, mid local equity market pullbacks. USD/TWD is up close to 0.40%, last near 30.55, trending back towards earlier Sep highs (near 30.75). USD/KRW was last in the  1413/14 region, up 0.30%, but KRW saw more of an adjustment in Thursday trade. So far today offshore investors have sold nearly $330mn of local South Korean stocks (Kospi last down 2.5%). A WSJ report on the US looking to chip imports has weighed.  
• In SEA, sensitivity to firmer US real yields is in play (US 10yr back to 1.80% on Thursday). USD/PHP continued its recent strong run higher, getting to 58.415, but sits back at 58.10/15 now (little change for the session). FX markets will shut at 12pm local time due to poor weather.
• USD/IDR sits at 16740/45 (down close to 0.15%), against earlier highs of 16788. BI intervention headlines crossed earlier, where the BI Governor said the central bank would act boldly to stabilize the rupiah.
• USD/MYR is back above 4.2200, close to its 50-day EMA, while USD/THB is up around 0.40%, last near 32.20/25 (this is also close to its 50-day EMA). Rhetoric around the stronger baht impacting local exports continued today. 

MALAYSIA: Country Wrap: Budget Deficit Projected to Narrow

Market Summary: The FTSE Malay KLCI has done very little all week yet has eked out gains of +0.45% today whilst the Ringgit was one of the worst performers down -0.25% to 4.2205 whilst bonds are having a mini sell off to finish the week with the MGS 10-Yr at 3.47% (+3bps today) and (+7bps for the week).

• Malaysia is expected to stay the course on fiscal consolidation when Budget 2026 is tabled on 10 October, with the deficit projected to narrow to 3.4% of GDP next year from 3.8% in 2025, according to CGS International.  (source Business Today)
• Trade chief Maros Sefcovic said the European Union hopes to reach free trade agreements with Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand before the 50th anniversary of the bloc’s relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2027.  (source BBG) 

INDONESIA: Country Wrap: EU Trade Agreement Finalized

Market Summary:  The Jakarta Composite is up +0.38% today which has taken it into positive territory for the week. The currency has steadied 16,751 on BI intervention and bonds are weak with yields up to +2bps higher in some parts of the curve. The 10-Yr is at 6.42% (+12bps for the week).

• Indonesia and the European Union signed a landmark trade agreement on Sept. 23, aiming to eliminate tariffs on nearly all goods and deepen cooperation in services and investment, marking a new chapter in economic relations between the two regions.  (source Antara)
• The Indonesian government and parliament agreed Thursday to dissolve the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), marking a major restructuring of state corporate governance as the country’s new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, assumes control of all state-owned assets. (source Jakarta Globe)

SOUTH KOREA: Country Wrap: Korea Pushes for 24HR FX Trading

Market Summary:  The KOSPI has been hit hard by the semi conductor sector falls and is down -2.9% today, wiping out all of the gains for the week and the Won is the worst regional performer down -0.25% today and -1.1% for the week.  Bonds have had a big sell off today with the 10-Yr +8bps today to 2.97% and +15bps for the week.  The curve has steepened +3bp to +45bps. 

• Korea will push for the 24-hour operation of its foreign exchange (FX) market and the establishment of an offshore Korean won settlement system as part of efforts to improve foreign accessibility to its capital markets, the finance ministry said Friday.  (source Korea Times)
• The Korean won has been losing ground against the U.S. dollar, weakening to around 1,400 won per dollar for the first time in four months, triggering concerns over an undermined foreign investor sentiment — a key driver behind the country’s recent stock market rally.  The main bourse KOSPI continues to record all-time highs, underpinned by foreign investors buying semiconductor shares.  (source Korea Times)

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL) 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
26/09/2025	0700/0900	***	ES	GDP (f)
26/09/2025	0715/0915		EU	ECB Cipollone At ECB-CEPR Conference
26/09/2025	0800/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
26/09/2025	0800/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
26/09/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
26/09/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
26/09/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Personal Income and Consumption
26/09/2025	1300/0900		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
26/09/2025	1400/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
26/09/2025	1400/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
26/09/2025	1500/1100		CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
26/09/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
26/09/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
26/09/2025	1700/1300		US	Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman