ASIA STOCKS: Weekly Flows Overall Negative
Following periods of inflows, regional flows have turned negative over the last week with South Korea the only exception.
- South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$178m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$280m. 2025 to date flows are -$ 627m. The 5-day average is +$56m, the 20-day average is +$249m and the 100-day average of +$116m.
- Taiwan: Had outflows of -$206m yesterday, with total outflows of -$873 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are positive at +$7,969m. The 5-day average is -$175m, the 20-day average of +$377m and the 100-day average of +$233m.
- India: Had outflows of -$210m as of the 24th, with total outflows of -$532m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$15,824m. The 5-day average is -$106m, the 20-day average of -$152m and the 100-day average of -$35m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$60m yesterday, with total inflows of +$444m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$3,274m. The 5-day average is +$89m, the 20-day average -$14m and the 100-day average -$2m.
- Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$26m yesterday, with inflows totaling -$115m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,725m. The 5-day average is -$23m, the 20-day average of -$17m and the 100-day average of -$10m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows yesterday of -$53m, totaling -$49m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,733m. The 5-day average is -$10m, the 20-day average of -$15m and the 100-day average of -$10m.
- Philippines: Recorded inflows of +$10m yesterday, with net inflows of +$125m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$600m. The 5-day average is +$25m, the 20-day average of +$4m the 100-day average of -$3m.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US STOCKS: Russell 2000- Consolidates Break Back Above 2300, Eyes All-Time Highs
The Russell 2000 overnight range was 2339.170 - 2361.713, closing +0.83%. The Russell 2000 broke back above the stubborn resistance just above 2300 thanks to Powell and the market has consolidated this break to begin the week. There are some large shorts being held by hedge funds in the Russell and this sustained break above 2300 could potentially see some of these portfolio managers pressured to come to market and reduce these positions. The shorts will be laser focused on the all-time highs just above 2450, a break of which could trigger another wave of short covering.
- Bloomberg - “UBS and BofA strategists see US small-cap stocks outperforming on Fed rate cut optimism. Improved earnings trends and technical signals offer investors a “catch-up opportunity,” according to Truist Financial.”
- “UBS strategists say small caps and low-quality stocks “could continue to outperform as rate cuts help alleviate balance sheet pressures.”
- “Small-Cap Investors Buy Now, Worry Later: Small caps are rallying Tuesday as traders increase bets that President Donald Trump’s attempts to shape the Fed board will result in lower interest rates ahead. However, it may all backfire later if it comes at the cost of Fed independence.” - BBG
- RenMac on X: “This is about September. If you get solid data, you’ll get a hawkish cut in September. If you get bad data, you’ll get a dovish cut. That’s how to think about this. Through the lens of an insurance cut being green lit in September. Importantly, Powell is accepting the Waller framing of the world. We had a shadow chair already. Time to give him the job.”
Fig 1: Russell 2000 Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Futures Fade Early Rise, JGB Yields Little Changed
JGB futures are off earlier highs. After drifting up to 137.40 after the open, we are back around 137.32, -.04, in latest dealings. This keeps us above Tuesday lows, (137.22), but the bias appears to be skewed lower at this stage. Some negative spill over is likely from weaker US 10yr Tsy futures, although aggregate moves are modest at this stage. (TY futures adown -02+).
- Cash JGB yields have opened up little changed, the 10yr remains close to 1.63%. The JGB 2/30 curve sits a touch flatter versus recent levels, last around +233bps.
- In the swap space, we are a touch yield in yield terms.
AUSTRALIA: SEEK Advertised Salary Increases Moderated Further In July
SEEK reported that July advertised salaries rose 0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y, the slowest annual rate since July 2021 and down from June’s 3.5% but still above inflation. It doesn’t appear to have been impacted by the July 1 3.5% increase in the minimum wage with 3-month momentum moderating. SEEK salaries have been trending lower since they peaked at 4.9% in September 2023 and signal that wages remain contained as lower inflation expectations and less tight labour market conditions feed into wage demands. The WPI was stable at 3.4% y/y in Q2 and the RBA is projecting it to ease to 3.3% in Q4 and then be close to 3% over the rest of its forecast horizon.
Australia SEEK advertised salary index %
