ASIA FX: Most USD/Asia Pairs Up, Higher US Yields/Weaker Equities In Play

Sep-26 03:35

Asian currencies are mostly weaker against the USD in the first part of Friday. Aggregate moves aren't large at this stage, while some USD/Asia pairs are off earlier highs. A combination of catch up to dollars gain, higher US yields and some equity market softness, is aiding USD/Asia pairs so far today.  

  • In NEA, USD/CNH sits a little lower, last around 7.1425. The pair continues to exhibit a low beta with respect to broader dollar shifts. USD/KRW and USD/TWD are rising, mid local equity market pullbacks. USD/TWD is up close to 0.40%, last near 30.56, trending back towards earlier Sep highs (near 30.75). USD/KRW was last in the  1411/12 region, only up 0.15%, but KRW saw more of an adjustment in Thursday trade. So far today offshore investors have sold nearly $330mn of local South Korean stocks (Kospi last down 2.5%).
  • In SEA, sensitivity to firmer US real yields is in play (US 10yr back to 1.80% on Thursday). USD/PHP continued its recent strong run higher, getting to 58.415, but sits back at 58.165 now (off around 0.10%). FX markets will shut at 12pm local time due to poor weather.
  • USD/IDR sits at 16765/70, against earlier highs of 16788. BI intervention headlines crossed earlier, where the BI Governor said the central bank would act boldly to stabilize the rupiah.
  • USD/MYR is back above 4.2200, close to its 50-day EMA, while USD/THB is up around 0.30%, last near 32.22 (this is also close to its 50-day EMA). Rhetoric around the stronger baht impacting local exports continued today. 

Historical bullets

US: Trump Turns Eye Towards Lockheed After Intel Success

Aug-27 03:18

The US Government has recently invested $400 million into MP Materials, the only US rare earth producer, this preceded the recent historic agreement with Intel where it is to make an $8.9billion investment in Intel common stock. It seems the Trump administration is not yet done and below are some comments attributed to Howard Lutnick and the news they could look to invest in Lockheed Martin next. Otavio Costa offers a critical viewpoint of the ever evolving encroachment of government into the private sector.

  • (Bloomberg Economics) - “Trump Could Give Lockheed the Intel Treatment: The Trump administration is weighing an unprecedented move: taking an equity stake in defense companies — specifically Lockheed Martin — to boost munitions production. Such direct government intervention in a publicly traded defense company would be unprecedented.”
  • NewsWire on X: “Trump Pentagon is 'thinking' about taking equity stakes in defense contractors, says Lutnick.”
  • CNBC - “Trump Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the administration is considering federal government partial ownership of defense corporations: " We use Palantir, PLTR, services, we would like a piece of Palantir."
  • Eric Daugherty on X: “Howard Lutnick reveals he will now seek to have the United States federal government OWN a portion of the patents currently owned by universities as a result of new inventions."If we give them the money, don't you think it's fair the USA and taxpayers who funded it get a piece of that? We give tens, if not hundreds of billions to universities for them to do research. They invent things. You know who owns those patents? The universities. We are going to make a deal with them all."
  • Otavio Costa on X: “This is what I think everyone is missing: At some point, a new political party will come into power — it's inevitable. The question is: How will government involvement in these companies evolve under new leadership? Administrations will change, but these equity stakes won't. This could lead us down a dangerous path, one we’ve seen before in less stable or less developed economies.”

CHINA PRESS: Government Bond Supply To Decrease In Q4

Aug-27 02:59

China’s net supply of local government bonds is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, prompting some analysts to call for additional support measures, including further issuance of ultra-long-term special treasuries and the introduction of new policy-based financial instruments, the China Securities Journal reported. As of August 26, 76.6% of this year’s CNY1.3 trillion quota for ultra-long-term special treasuries had been issued, alongside CNY3.15 trillion of the CNY4.4 trillion in local government special bonds. The pace of issuance has already surpassed the scale recorded during the same period last year, the report said.

CHINA PRESS: Active Foreign Investment Shifts To Net Inflow

Aug-27 02:58

Actively managed foreign capital flowed into China for the first time since October 2024, driven by the A-share rally, the Securities Times reported. During Aug 14-20, the net inflow of active and passive foreign investment was CNY140 million and CNY6.84 billion, respectively, the newspaper said, citing data by EPFR. Foreign capital increased its holdings of domestic stocks and funds by a net of USD18.8 billion in May and June, reversing the overall net reduction trend of the past two years, the newspaper said, citing data by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.