INDONESIA: Country Wrap: EU Trade Agreement Finalized
Market Summary: The Jakarta Composite is up +0.38% today which has taken it into positive territory for the week. The currency has steadied 16,751 on BI intervention and bonds are weak with yields up to +2bps higher in some parts of the curve. The 10-Yr is at 6.42% (+12bps for the week).
- Indonesia and the European Union signed a landmark trade agreement on Sept. 23, aiming to eliminate tariffs on nearly all goods and deepen cooperation in services and investment, marking a new chapter in economic relations between the two regions. (source Antara)
- The Indonesian government and parliament agreed Thursday to dissolve the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), marking a major restructuring of state corporate governance as the country’s new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, assumes control of all state-owned assets. (source Jakarta Globe)
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SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
- RES 2: 107.153 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.100 High Aug 21
- PRICE: 107.070 @ 05:43 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 106.970 Low Aug 25
- SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish and gains are - for now - considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday and 106.985, the Aug 15 low, has been pierced. A clear breach of this level would resume the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 107.078, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Signal Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2
- RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
- RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
- PRICE: 1.3450 @ 06:25 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22
- SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A rally on Aug 22 in GBPUSD continues to signal the end of the recent corrective phase - last Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 27-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Aug | 0730 | --- | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Jul/Aug | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 / S&P Manuf PMI (f) |
| 03-Sep | 0830 | --- | BOE Mann at Signum's London Westminster Day roundtable |
| 03-Sep | 0915 | --- | BOE Breeden at Money and Payments Conference |
| 03-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (Final) |
| 04-Sep | 0930 | Aug | BOE Decision Maker Panel data / S&P Construction PMI |
| 05-Sep | 0700 | Jul | Retail Sales |
| 08-Sep | 0001 | --- | KPMG / REC Report on Jobs |
| 09-Sep | 0001 | Aug | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Sep | 0700 | Jul | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 12-Sep | 0930 | Aug | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 16-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Labour Market Survey |
| 17-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Consumer inflation report |
| 18-Sep | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 19-Sep | 0001 | Sep | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 19-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
