MNI ASIA OPEN: Crude Still Elevated, Lebanon/Israel Ceasefire

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI US: Trump Confirms Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire
• MNI FED: Monetary Policy Still Well Positioned - Williams
• MNI FED: Miran Further Trims Rate Cut Calls For 2026 On Near-Term War Impact
• MNI IRAN: Gulf & European Leaders See US Needing 6 Months For Iran Deal - Bloomberg
• MNI US DATA: Industrial Production Setback In March Amid Otherwise Solid Quarter
• MNI US DATA: Another Low Fire, Somewhat Low Hire Jobless Claims Release

US

MNI FED: Monetary Policy Still Well Positioned - Williams

NY Fed’s Williams (voter, leaning dove) has continued to describe monetary policy as well positioned in a speech (link). The ongoing uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict sees a reluctance to provide further guidance from a permanent voting member who pre-war saw further rate cuts as warranted.  

• "This is an unusual set of circumstances, but the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals," Higher tariffs have contributed between 0.5-0.75pps to PCE inflation, at 2.8% in February ahead of the war, and should begin to wane over the next few quarters.

MNI FED: Miran Further Trims Rate Cut Calls For 2026 On Near-Term War Impact

Governor Miran (voter, dove) appears to have trimmed his rate cut views a little further, now seeing three cuts for the year vs four previously. 

• "*FED'S MIRAN SAYS HE FAVORS 3, MAYBE 4 CUTS THIS YEAR" - "WAR HASN'T CHANGED INFLATION OUTLOOK 12-18 MONTHS OUT" – bbg

Miran previously pencilled in 150bp of cuts for 2026 with the Dec SEP before 100bp in Mar SEP. He had stuck to ~100bps of cuts for the year when speaking Mar 30: “I think that we could be about a point easier, gradually done over the course of a year”

CENTRAL BANKS

MNI RBA: VIEW: Goldman Sachs Look For Hikes In May & June

Goldman Sachs now look for the RBA to hike in June, in addition to their pre-existing call for tightening in May. They note that the "positive Australian macro outlook for 2026 we presented before the war in Iran continues to be undermined by the surge in fuel prices, rising interest rates, and related cost-of-living pressures. In year-over-year terms, our end-2026 forecasts for GDP and inflation stand at 1.3% (down from 2.2% pre-war) and 3.9% (up from 3.0% pre-war), respectively.

MNI ECB: JP Morgan Now Expect Hikes In June and September

JP Morgan have also pushed back their ECB hiking call, now expecting hikes in June and September (vs April and July previously). The new call is broadly consistent with market pricing. ECB-dated OIS price ~21bps of hikes through June and 43bps through September. JPM write that “ Despite the ticking clock on the supply of energy and commodities, energy forward curves have recently been quite stable (from a macro perspective) and gas prices have surprised on the downside even as refilling storage ahead of next winter looks challenging. Unless market pricing on energy changes significantly over the next two weeks, the ECB’s current inclination to be patient will likely remain in place. “

NEWS

MNI IRAN: Gulf & European Leaders See US Needing 6 Months For Iran Deal - Bloomberg

• Bloomberg reports: "Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials from the regions familiar with the matter."
• See the full story here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/TDL7TAKGIFSV
• It's met by initial risk-off, with Tsys briefly extending lows and stocks paring gains away from session highs. 

MNI US: Trump Confirms Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire

Donald J. Trump on Truth Social: I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST. On Tuesday, the two Countries met for the first time in 34 years here in Washington, D.C., with our Great Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. I have directed Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, together with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Razin' Caine, to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a Lasting PEACE. It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let's, GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMP

MNI US: Trump Confirms Invite of Lebanese, Israeli Leaders to White House

Donald J. Trump on Truth Social: RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/116415122630904602In addition to the statement just issued, I will be inviting the Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, and the President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, to the White House for the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983, a very long time ago. Both sides want to see PEACE, and I believe that will happen, quickly! President DONALD J. TRUMP

MIDEAST: Axios: Israeli Off-Lebanon Ceasefire Could Be Announced Tonight

The latest on the call between US President Donald Trump and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun comes from Barak Ravid at Axios "An Israeli defense official said a ceasefire could be announced on Thursday night. "We are at a crossroads. Nothing is final but it could happen today," the official said". The status of talks (or lack thereof) between both the US and Iran, and Israel and Lebanon continue to drive headlines that have claimed deals hoving into view, fading away, or a combination thereof.

MNI UK: Guardian Mandelson Headlines Pile More Pressure On PM Starmer

The Guardian reports that Peter Mandelson, an alleged friend of the late paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein, failed security vetting clearance to serve as British ambassador to the United States, but that this was overruled by the Foreign Office after PM Sir Keir Starmer had already announced Mandelson as his pick. Moreover, the report also claims "senior government officials have been considering whether to withhold from parliament documents that would reveal that Mandelson was not given vetting approval from security officials."

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Sentiment Ebb & Flow, Trump Talks Up Iran Negotiations

• Treasuries reversed early highs, look to finish near Thursday session lows after a flurry of Middle East geopolitical headlines.Sentiment ebbed & flowed on the day: Treasuries extended lows then rebounded after Pres Trump social media post of a Israel/Lebanon ceasefire agreement that starts this evening (2000 Tehran time).
• Midday sentiment evaporate for equities (near flat now) while crude marches higher (June WTI contract trades $91.45/bbl). Other factors such as the $10B BoA supply generating rate lock hedging weighing (mkt depth been pretty thin all day). TYM6 tapped 111-05 low (-6.5) - Tuesday's low. Major support to watch is 110-16, the Apr 2 low. A break would be bearish.
• Treasuries pared losses after Pres Trump talks up negotiations with Iran, Lebanon/Israel 10 day ceasefire, and a host of other items adding that Iran has agreed to "hand over it's enriched uranium supply" AFP. Equities gain slightly while crude pares gains (June WTI contract trades $90.04/bbl).
• On data, low hire/fire: Initial claims fell to 207k (sa, cons 213k) in the week to Apr 11, just shy of covering a payrolls reference period, after a downward revised 218k (initial 219k). Continuing claims of course remain at a relatively higher (i.e. weaker labor market) level but at least consolidate what's proving a sustained pullback from 2H25.
• Headline IP fell 0.54% M/M vs expectations of a 0.1% rise - but the upward revision to prior to +0.74% from +0.15% helped mitigate the shortfall. Capacity utilization for manufacturing fell 0.2pp to 75.3%, with bigger falls for mining and utilities leading to an overall "miss" in cap utilization (75.7%, vs 76.3% consensus and 76.1% prior).
• LOOK AHEAD: Friday (No) Data Calendar: Trio of Fed Speakers Round Out Week

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US DATA: Another Low Fire, Somewhat Low Hire Jobless Claims Release

• Initial claims fell to 207k (sa, cons 213k) in the week to Apr 11, just shy of covering a payrolls reference period, after a downward revised 218k (initial 219k).
• Continuing claims of course remain at a relatively higher (i.e. weaker labor market) level but at least consolidate wwhat's proving a sustained pullback from 2H25.

MNI US DATA: Industrial Production Setback In March Amid Otherwise Solid Quarter

Industrial production posted an unexpected decline in March, but this was partly driven by a revision to the base of comparison and largely reflected weakness in utilities and mining rather than manufacturing. While there were signs of broader manufacturing softness in March, we take greater signal from forward looking indicators in suggesting that activity in Q1 remained relatively solid, though business investment remains an outperformer vs consumer and nonindustrial sectors.

• Headline IP fell 0.54% M/M vs expectations of a 0.1% rise - but the upward revision to prior to +0.74% from +0.15% helped mitigate the shortfall. And the composition of the pullback was only slightly concerning: manufacturing production fell by 0.15% M/M after +0.35% (upward rev from 0.2%), but it was the always-volatile utilities industry that drove the March downside (-2.3% after +1.8%), with mining also posting a notable pullback (-1.2% after +2.1%).
• Capacity utilization for manufacturing fell 0.2pp to 75.3%, with bigger falls for mining and utilities leading to an overall "miss" in cap utilization (75.7%, vs 76.3% consensus and 76.1% prior).

US DATA: Philly Manufacturing Impresses As Firms See Transitory Price Jump

April's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey was much stronger than expected, with the headline index (General Business Conditions 26.7 from 18.1, highest since January 2025 and vs 10.0 consensus) underpinned by solid underlying details. Current price indications soared, but there's a hint firms think the war-induced energy shock will prove temporary.

MNI US DATA: Mixed NY Fed Services Report Shows Spiking Prices, Limited Passthrough

The New York Fed's Business Leaders Survey was mixed in April. It pointed to an improvement in regional services sector activity, with the current General Activity index rising to a 6-month high -14.0 (-20.0 consensus, -22.6 prior). But that still implied a decline in activity, and sentiment was actually a little weaker, with the Business Climate index dipping to -49.3 from -46.2 for an 11-month low.

MNI CANADA DATA: CFIB Improves, But Higher Prices A Growing Problem

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) 12-month Business Barometer picked up to 58.5 in April from March's 5-month low of 55.7, suggesting that small business sentiment is stabilizing after what may have been a Middle East war-impacted deterioration. Short-term (3-month) optimism ticked up by a point to 55.4. That said, resurgent inflation is increasingly problematic.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 111.94 points (0.23%) at 48574.4
S&P E-Mini Future up 18.75 points (0.27%) at 7079.5
Nasdaq up 91.7 points (0.4%) at 24108.68
US 10-Yr yield is up 2.4 bps at 4.3072%
US Jun 10-Yr futures are down 4.5/32 at 111-7
EURUSD down 0.0017 (-0.14%) at 1.1782
USDJPY up 0.12 (0.08%) at 159.13
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $2.11 (2.31%) at $93.41
Gold is up $3.32 (0.07%) at $4794.61

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 7.06 points (-0.12%) at 5933.28
FTSE 100 up 30.41 points (0.29%) at 10589.99
German DAX up 87.77 points (0.36%) at 24154.47
French CAC 40 down 11.87 points (-0.14%) at 8262.7

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

Curve update:
3M10Y +2.954, 60.582 (L: 55.33 / H: 61.304)
2Y10Y +1.145, 52.934 (L: 50.569 / H: 53.728)
2Y30Y +1.833, 115.063 (L: 112.001 / H: 115.991)
5Y30Y +1.318,  101.538 (L: 99.493 /H: 102.175)
Current futures levels:
Jun 2-Yr futures down 0.875/32 at 103-24.375 (L: 103-24 / H: 103-26.75)
Jun 5-Yr futures down 2.5/32 at 108-9.5 (L: 108-08.5 / H: 108-15.75)
Jun 10-Yr futures down 4.5/32 at 111-7 (L: 111-05 / H: 111-17)
Jun 30-Yr futures down 18/32 at 113-25 (L: 113-19 / H: 114-16)
Jun Ultra futures down 22/32 at 116-2 (L: 115-26 / H: 116-28) 

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M6) Monitoring Same Resistance

• RES 4: 112-16   61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 112-07   High Mar 18
• RES 2: 111-31   50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 111-18+/21   50-day EMA / High Apr 15
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-16 @ 17:07 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 111-05 Low Apr 14/16
• SUP 2: 110-16/109-24   Low Apr 2 / Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 109-22+ 1.764 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 109-12   2.000 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing

The latest recovery in Treasuries still appears corrective. Trend signals remain bearish, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. Support to watch is 110-16, the Apr 2 low. A break would be bearish. The next important resistance is 111-18+, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery that would open 111-31, a Fibonacci retracement.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Current White pack (Jun 26-Mar 27):
Jun 26 +0.010 at 96.335
Sep 26 +0.005 at 96.360
Dec 26 -0.005 at 96.395
Mar 27 -0.020 at 96.415
Red Pack (Jun 27-Mar 28) -0.025 to -0.02
Green Pack (Jun 28-Mar 29) -0.025 to -0.02
Blue Pack (Jun 29-Mar 30) -0.025 to -0.02
Gold Pack (Jun 30-Mar 31) -0.025 to -0.02

REFERENCE RATES
​​​​​​​
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.72% (+0.06), volume: $3.117T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.70% (+0.06), volume: $1.287T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.70% (+0.06), volume: $1.251T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.64% (+0.00), volume: $83B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.64% (+0.01), volume: $165B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage at $0.158B with 5 counterparties this afternoon vs. $0.223B Wednesday. Compares to last year's highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $10B BoA Launched, TD, BONY, MTB on Tap

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/16 $10B #Bank of America $3.25B 4NC3 +68, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+88, $3.25B 6NC5 +78, $3B 11NC10 +118
• 04/16 $5B *British Columbia 5Y SOFR+49
• 04/16 $500M #Banco Brasil 5.5Y low 5.875%
• 04/16 $500M #Marex Group WNG 5Y +177
• 04/16 $Benchmark TD Bank 3Y +57, 3Y SOFR+76, 7Y +77
• 04/16 $Benchmark Bank of NY Mellon 6NC5 +63, 11NC10 +78
• 04/16 $Benchmark MTB 4NC3 +75, 10NC5 +138 (4NC3 SOFR leg dropped)

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Underperform On Renewed UK Political Risk

EGBs faded early gains Thursday to finish only slightly stronger, with Gilts underperforming Bunds on a rise in UK political risk premia.

• EGBs and Gilts started off on the front foot, after overnight comments by ECB officials (including Schnabel) and sources pieces pointing to a hold rather than a hike in April, while there was continued cautious optimism over the US-Iran situation.
• But early gains started to sour about 2 hours before the European cash close, after Iranian press reported that tolls to cross the Strait of Hormuz will be payable via Iranian banks.
• Gilts led the next leg of the selloff on speculation that UK PM Starmer could be in the firing line after the Guardian reported the Foreign Office overruled Lord Mandelson's failed security vetting clearance for US ambassador.
• A Times journalist reported after the cash close that the PM was unaware, Gilt (and EGB) futures continued to descend after Bloomberg reported that Gulf and European leaders saw the US requiring 6 months for an Iran deal.
• BOE's Taylor said he didn't support rate hikes (in line with previous comments). UK February GDP data was firmer than expected. Eurozone final March HICP was revised up a little versus the flash.
• The German curve bull steepened with the UK's twist steepening. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads closed largely unchanged.
• Friday's schedule includes appearances by BOE's Pill and Breeden, with some 2nd-tier Eurozone external accounts data.
  
  Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.7bps at 2.517%, 5-Yr is down 1.9bps at 2.697%, 10-Yr is down 1.1bps at 3.032%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 3.591%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.9bps at 4.22%, 5-Yr is up 0.7bps at 4.344%, 10-Yr is up 3.3bps at 4.847%, and 30-Yr is up 7.4bps at 5.567%.
• Italian BTP spread down 0.1bps at 77.3bps / Spanish down 0.2bps at 45bps 

MNI FOREX: Bearish Dollar Momentum Stalls, Narrow G10 Ranges

• Oil prices have edged higher on Thursday, despite major equity indices continuing to reflect a cautiously optimistic view on ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. This has resulted in a modest bounce from overnight 97.83 DXY lows, to levels around 98.15 ahead of the APAC crossover. However, the index remains in range of the Feb 27 (pre-war) close of 97.61.
• G10 net adjustments on the session have been modest, with NZD (-0.3%) the underperformer, while the likes of NOK (+0.5%) and CAD (+0.3%) show a greater sense of optimism.
• Energy price dynamics could be factoring into intraday NOK strength, despite front-month Brent and TTF benchmarks remaining below Monday's levels. Zooming out, the current backdrop remains favourable for the krone: Risk assets have recovered strongly through April on hopes of an Iran war offramp, while domestically, Norges Bank remains one of the most hawkish G10 central banks (alongside the RBA), with a potential May hike supporting the carry profile.
• Antipodean divergence continues to be a key feature of the session, with AUDNZD extending the recovery from opening weekly lows to around 2% on Thursday, narrowing back in on cycle highs, just above the 1.22 mark. Relative AUD strength reflects a solid set of employment data overnight, with positive China GDP data providing an additional tailwind.
• GBP had a fleeting selloff on the back of headlines suggesting the Government overrode vetting advice in appointing Peter Mandelson, which could place renewed pressure on PM Starmer’s tenure. A GBPUSD dip to 1.3517 proved short lived, with cable back towards 1.3540 approaching the close.

FRIDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
17/04/2026	0800/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
17/04/2026	0800/1000		IT	Foreign Trade
17/04/2026	0900/1100	*	EU	Trade Balance
17/04/2026	0900/1000		GB	BOE Breeden Speech at Program on Intl Financial Systems (Text)
17/04/2026	1200/1300		GB	BOE Pill at Barclays Breakfast Roundtable
17/04/2026	1230/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/04/2026	1530/1130		US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
17/04/2026	1615/1215		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
17/04/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
17/04/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
17/04/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
17/04/2026	1800/1400		US	Fed Governor Chris Waller