CANADA DATA: CFIB Improves, But Higher Prices A Growing Problem
Apr-16 12:10
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) 12-month Business Barometer picked up to 58.5 in April from March's 5-month low of 55.7, suggesting that small business sentiment is stabilizing after what may have been a Middle East war-impacted deterioration. Short-term (3-month) optimism ticked up by a point to 55.4. That said, resurgent inflation is increasingly problematic.
- The average planned price increase jumped 0.6pp to 3.2% in April, the biggest rise since March 2025 at the onset of the US-initiated global tariff conflict; in February that was just 2.2% for the lowest since February 2021.
- The inflationary impact appears widespread: "Fuel costs posted the largest monthly increase, rising another 20 points in April alone. As a result, fuel has become the number one cost constraint for businesses, surpassing insurance, taxes, and wage costs. Concern over fuel costs has, in fact, doubled in just two months, climbing from 36% in February to 74% in April. Shipping and receiving costs have also risen sharply, reaching 45%, up from 26% in February."
- Our Policy Team spoke with the CFIB about the jump in inflation expectations: "The April reading is mostly a reaction to stubbornly high oil prices, and especially to the risk that they may climb even further," CFIB's economics director Andreea Bourgeois told MNI. (MNI INTERVIEW: Canada Firms Boost Inflation View Above 3%-CFIB)
- The survey ran from April 2-8 so partly overlapped the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire thus possibly having boosted sentiment, but any lingering inflation impact will be eyed.
- We'll soon have more "official" inflation indicators, with Monday bringing both March CPI and the BOC's BOS/CSCE surveys.
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