CANADA: Politics Week: Tariff Threats Dominate As Parliament Suspended
- Donald Trump on Monday night said he prefers a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico for Feb. 1, though refraining from earlier signals he would do this upon taking office.
- Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said tariffs would be "a mistake" drawing a response that hurts America's job creation and boosts inflation. Officials have signaled they are planning a dollar-for-dollar retaliation, and export taxes on any goods like oil exempted by Trump.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign March 24 to allow for a Liberal leadership race, also hanging on to deal with Donald Trump's threats including use of "economic force."
- Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland joined the Liberal leadership race with a decision set for March 9, and as of yet no debates or other events have been announced by the party. Many cabinet ministers touted as candidates have opted out of a race with a record CAD350,000 fee in a nation with tight contribution limits.
- Trudeau has suspended Parliamentary business until his March 24 resignation, short-circuiting opposition parties who intended to force a snap election when the legislature had been due to open Jan. 27.
- Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Conservatives likely to win majority government if election were held now.
- Sample headlines: Holy heck, that Mark Carney launch was a letdown (Star); I’ve seen student unions better organized than the Liberal party (Toronto Star).
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
