RBA: VIEW: Goldman Sachs Look For Hikes In May & June
Apr-16 12:30
Goldman Sachs now look for the RBA to hike in June, in addition to their pre-existing call for tightening in May.
- They note that the "positive Australian macro outlook for 2026 we presented before the war in Iran continues to be undermined by the surge in fuel prices, rising interest rates, and related cost-of-living pressures. In year-over-year terms, our end-2026 forecasts for GDP and inflation stand at 1.3% (down from 2.2% pre-war) and 3.9% (up from 3.0% pre-war), respectively. The global supply shock has knocked the RBA further off its strategy to walk a benign "narrow path" that "preserves gains in the labour market". The Board appears to now have a tolerance for a ‘rougher’ return to the inflation target – featuring weaker growth and employment. The geopolitical and macro outlook remains highly uncertain."
- Market pricing currently signals 25bp of hikes through June.
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US DATA: Private Sector Hiring Lost A Little Momentum Heading Towards March
Mar-17 12:26
- ADP weekly employment growth cooled a little in today’s update, with an average weekly increase of 9k in the four weeks to Feb 28 after a slightly downward revised 14.75k (initial 15.5k) up to Feb 21 and an unrevised 15.5k up to Feb 14.
- The monthly equivalent of 36k cools from the 63k in the February monthly update released two weeks ago (as always based on a reference week including the 12th day of the month per BLS payrolls) but is above the 11k from January.
- Roughly speaking, this weekly series continues to offer signs of steady but modest private sector job creation compared to some wildly differing indications from the BLS private payrolls data with February’s -86k hit after jumping 146k in January.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above Support
Mar-17 12:14
- On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade below $5419.11, the Mar 2 high. The short-term outlook remains bullish - for now - following the recovery that started Feb 2. The metal has cleared all key retracement points of the sell-off between Jan 29 - Feb 2. This signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at $5595.5, the Jan 29 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4928.6, the 50-day EMA.
- A bull wave in WTI futures remains intact. The recent sharp pullback from the Mar 9 high, has allowed an extreme overbought trend condition to unwind. The key support zone to monitor is $80.37 - $71.03, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break through this zone would signal a possible trend reversal. On the upside, a continuation higher near-term would open $103.15 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 10 sell-off.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates Rising
Mar-17 12:06
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.70% (+0.05), volume: $3.178T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.67% (+0.04), volume: $1.305T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.67% (+0.04), volume: $1.277T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
