MIDEAST: Axios: Israeli Off-Lebanon Ceasefire Could Be Announced Tonight
The latest on the call between US President Donald Trump and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun comes from Barak Ravid at Axios "An Israeli defense official said a ceasefire could be announced on Thursday night. "We are at a crossroads. Nothing is final but it could happen today," the official said".
- The status of talks (or lack thereof) between both the US and Iran, and Israel and Lebanon continue to drive headlines that have claimed deals hoving into view, fading away, or a combination thereof.
- In the past 90 mins alone, headlines have been constructive towards the prospect of a ceasefire in Lebanon, while at the same time acknowledging that a call between the Israeli PM and Lebanese president may not happen.
- There has also been speculation that there is no more 'dead-lock' in indirect Iran-US talks, while other headlines claim Iran is calling for the US to drop 'excessive demands', which would not point towards imminent agreement. (IRAN: Trump Holds Phone Call with Lebanese President Aoun: Asharq, IRAN: Israeli Army Receives Orders to Prepare for Ceasefire in Lebanon, IRAN: Reports Iran Wants Hormuz Toll To Be Paid Via Iranian Banks, Iran Emphasises US Must Drop 'Excessive Demands', Fulfill Commitments, CROSS ASSET: Latest Constructive Headlines From Middle East Stabilise Sentiment).
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EU-UK: Reeves Walks Tightrope On EU; Talks Up Ties, But No Customs Union (1/2)
Delivering the annual Mais Lecture at the Bayes Business School in London, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves talks on the future of EU-UK economic links. Reuters reports Reeves saying, "Our fate as a country is inescapably bound with Europe...we will look carefully at any option to allow our participation in the EU's efforts to make a EUR90bln loan to Ukraine."
- Reeves: "We share a need with the EU for greater economic resilience...where it is in our national interest to align with EU regulation, we should be prepared to do so. Options we would look at include areas of the EU's single market...Regulatory autonomy from the EU should be the exception, not the norm."
- Reeves: "We need a framework to keep building the relationship without constant renegotiation...we must remove trade barriers with the EU."
- Reeves: "It is in Britain's and the EU's collective interest to respond to global challenges as a partnership...no partnership is more important than [that] between the UK and our European neighbours."
- Reeves says that the UK will not be rejoining the customs union, nor bringing back freedom of movement.
Chart 1. Opinion Poll: "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?", %
EU-UK: Reeves Walks Tightrope On EU; Talks Up Ties, But No Customs Union (2/2)
Ahead of the speech, shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said that the gov't is attempting to "row back on Brexit". Pursuing closer relations with the EU may not be as politically dangerous for the gov't as it might once have been. Opinion polling shows respondents replying that the UK was wrong to leave the EU outnumbering those saying it was right to leave by nearly a two-to-one margin (see chart above).
- Latest polling from YouGov on the topic (Nov 2025) shows that when asked if the UK should rejoin the EU, 54% of respondents were in favour, to 32% opposed. However, when asked if the UK should rejoin even if it lost its opt-outs on Schengen and joining the euro (as would likely be the case if the UK sought re-entry), the numbers nearly reversed, with 36% supporting rejoining and 46% opposed.
- The gov't is likely to portray its position as occupying a sensible middle ground, not reversing the Brexit referendum but looking to bolster the economy and political ties at an uncertain time. However, the right-wing populist Reform UK (topping polls and led by one of the chief architects of Brexit, Nigel Farage) and the centre-right Conservatives are likely to argue the gov'ts stance will leave the UK beholden to rules from Brussels on which it has no say. On the pro-EU left, Labour will face accusations from the Greens and Liberal Democrats that it should go further and look for re-entry to the EU as an economic and political imperative.
