FED: Miran Further Trims Rate Cut Calls For 2026 On Near-Term War Impact

Pending home sales unexpectedly picked up in February, growing 1.8% M/M (-0.6% M/M expected). That's a 3-month high but still down 0.6% Y/Y and the basis of comparison is weak given that January's sales were the lowest ever (and its growth was revised lower). Sales picked up across 3 of 4 US regions but fell in the Northeast for a 3rd consecutive month.

• This is a key indicator for residential sales activity, as it leads actual existing home sales. But the National Association of Realtors warns that the latest uptick looks tied to better affordability (on the back of a dip in mortgage rates seen early in the year) which looked to have been hampered in March due to higher mortgage rates after the outbreak of the US-Iran War.
• From the report: "Improved affordability seems to have led to a climb in pending contracts, but regions like the Northwest continued to be held back by the combination of higher home prices and a shortage of supply. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun warns, “Conditions could reverse if higher oil prices lead to an uptick in mortgage rates.”"
• MBA mortgage purchase applications were picking up a bit in late Feb/early March, but 30Y conforming rates look to have risen substantially from the 6.09% area since then with last week's print of 6.19% and looking to go higher this week (wider spreads, higher Tsy / swap rates).

• +11,000 SFRZ6/2QZ6 97.12/97.62 call spd spds 3.5 net bull flattener (Green Dec over)
• Elsewhere - two-way put flow continues with underlying holding modest gains
  • -10,000 SFRJ6 96.31/SFRM6 96.25 put strips 3.0-3.5
  • +8,000 SFRM6 96.31/96.37 2x1 put spds, 1.0 ref 99.38

Senate Minority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will open debate today on the SAVE America Act, a sweeping package of voter rights bills that Trump says is his “No. 1 priority.” The measure appears to have no route to becoming law, as institutionalist Republicans have rejected Trump’s call to terminate the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster, fearing the consequences for legislation if Democrats are in control of both chambers of Congress. 

• CBS notes, "Trump upped the ante last week when he threatened not to sign most other bills until Congress passes the SAVE America Act, adding to growing calls for Republicans to maneuver around the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold."
• An initial procedural vote is expected at around 15:00 ET 19:00 GMT to open debate on the measure. It will require a simple majority to pass. Thune likely calculates that dedicating considerable floor time to the package will be enough to keep Trump onside, while maintaining the Senate's filibuster.
• Politico notes, “Republicans will start with a vote to begin consideration of the House-passed bill that would institute new citizenship and photo ID requirements in order to participate in elections. As of Monday, GOP leaders appeared to still be working to lock down support. Thune can lose three Republicans and still have Vice President JD Vance break a tie. Then, Thune is expected to keep control of the Senate by taking steps to block Democrats from being able to force votes on a deluge of amendments that could put Republicans in a difficult spot.”