IRAN: Gulf & European Leaders See US Needing 6 Months For Iran Deal - Bloomberg

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 03/18 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications
• 03/18 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.5%, 0.3%), YoY (2.9%, 3.0%)
• 03/18 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.8%, 0.3%), YoY (3.6%, 3.7%)
• 03/18 1000 Factory Orders (-0.7%, 0.1%), Durable Goods Orders (0.0%, 0.0%)
• 03/18 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
• 03/18 1400 FOMC rate annc w/ SEP
• 03/18 1600 Total Net TIC Flows ($44.9B prior), Net Long-term TIC Flows ($28.0B prior)
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

SFIU6 96.60/96.75 call spread, sold at 2.5 in -15k

• The softer tilt to the greenback on Tuesday has allowed EURUSD to edge a little higher, with momentum moderately building on a break of a collection of highs between 1.1525/30. The pairs inability to hold below the key 1.15-1.1470 breakdown point will be frustrating for shorts put on late last week, and any further moderation in energy prices will likely prompt a further squeeze for EURUSD.
• For now, the trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south, and with moving average studies in a bear-mode position, this highlights a dominant medium-term bearish condition. First key resistance is 1.1645, the 20-day EMA, while 1.1392 remains the most notable target on the downside.
• SocGen have stated that if crude prices are still here in two weeks’ time, EURUSD will probably have broken lower, citing that a fall through 1.14 would trigger another small landslide, however, 1.14-1.17 is a neutral range in the meantime.
• Meanwhile, ING say in the near term, downside risks to EURUSD persist, and the pair’s recovery on Monday may have short legs unless some headlines on ceasefire talks or NATO coordination on securing Hormuz start to appear. Furthermore, the sum of Fed and ECB meetings returns a downside balance of risks for EURUSD this week, in their view.