US TSYS: Sentiment Ebb & Flow, Trump Talks Up Iran Negotiations

• RES 4: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing  
• RES 3: 160.26 Low Jul 8 ‘24
• RES 2: 160.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 159.75 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 158.92 @ 16:36 GMT Mar 17  
• SUP 1: 158.57/157.40 Low Mar 12 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 156.44 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 155.35/154.00 Low Feb 25 / 23 
• SUP 4: 152.95 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low 

A bullish condition in USDJPY remains intact and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recent clear breach of key short-term resistance at 159.45, the Jan 14 high, opens the 160.00 psychological barrier next. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 156.44, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 157.40.    

US Military leaders, including US Strategic Command Commander Adm. Richard Correll and US Space Command Commander Gen. Stephen Whiting, are shortly due to testify to the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. LIVESTREAM

• White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC earlier that Trump has stated “over and over” that this is a “four-to-six week war” and “we’re ahead of schedule.” Hassett added that he is optimistic that the war will be over “in the short run,” noting that oil tankers beginning to “dribble” through the Strait of Hormuz is a sign of “how little Iran has left”.
• In a video update on Iran operations yesterday, the head of US Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, said Iran’s military capabilities were “declining,” but gave no estimate for how much longer the US campaign would last.
• Cooper said that the military is focused on “well-defined” targets, including eliminating Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and naval threats. But he appeared to expand those aims to include destroying Iran’s “wider manufacturing apparatus” for its missiles and drones and to “deplete” Iran’s capacity to strike ships along the Strait of Hormuz, per Politico.
• Politico adds, “Cooper said that the US was “zeroed in” on removing Iran’s hold over the key waterway, saying military forces had already destroyed more than 100 Iranian naval vessels, but he provided no clear plan for how the US planned to reopen the strait.”

• Oil prices have recovered ground to erase much of Monday’s losses as the market pivoted from diplomatic hope back to supply-chain reality amid further Iranian attacks on shipping/energy infrastructure.
• WTI Apr 26 is up 2.6% at $95.9/bbl.
• Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, with only a few vessels transiting in the past 24 hours.
• Goldman Sachs estimates that flows through the strait are down 19.3m b/d, or 97%, versus normal.
• Meanwhile, President Trump said via Truth Social, regarding the timeline for the war, “a couple of weeks, not much longer, we’re way ahead”. He also reiterated that the US could “knock out oil on Kharg Island” if it so wished.
• From a technical perspective, a bull wave in WTI futures remains intact. A continuation higher near-term would open $103.15 next, followed by $109.39, Fibonacci retracement points.
• On the downside, the key support zone to monitor is $81.86 - $72.01, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break through this zone would signal a possible trend reversal.
• Meanwhile, spot gold is little changed, with price currently 0.1% lower at $5,001/oz, as the US dollar has been consolidating today.
• The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish for now, following the recovery that started Feb 2. Scope is seen for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at $5,595.5, the Jan 29 high.
• Initial firm support to watch lies at $4,931.4, the 50-day EMA.