US: Trump Confirms Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire
Donald J. Trump on Truth Social:
I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST. On Tuesday, the two Countries met for the first time in 34 years here in Washington, D.C., with our Great Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. I have directed Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, together with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Razin' Caine, to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a Lasting PEACE. It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let's, GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP2.25bln of the 4.75% Oct-35 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BTXS1K06) at its auction next Tuesday, March 24.
FED: US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.485%(ALLOT 21.76%)
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.485%(ALLOT 21.76%)
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 31.64% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 3.50% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 64.86% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.43
UK DATA: MNI UK Labour Market Preview: March 2026 Release
For the full MNI UK Labour Market Preview click here.
- The importance of the labour market data in the near-term will only really be known when the guidance and vote split from the MPC meeting are known (note that we will publish our full BOE preview tomorrow). MPC members received the labour market data at 8:00 on Monday morning ahead of their deliberations.
- For private regular wage growth, expectations from the sellside previews that we have read round to either 3.4%Y/Y or 3.5%Y/Y in the 3-months to January. Note that the BOE’s February MPR expects a slight uptick to 3.47%Y/Y in Q1 (i.e. the 3-months to March) so a small uptick from December’s levels would not be an issue for the MPC here.
- For the unemployment side, given the single month prints it doesn’t seem a stretch to get to a 5.3% 3-month print in January when the November cohort is resurveyed. A 5.11% single month print would be all that would be needed, a 0.12ppt increase for the cohort from October’s 4.99%. All twelve of the sellside previews we have read look for a 5.3% print (although Barclays notes that its Revelio based model points to risks of 5.4%). Note that the BOE’s Q1 staff forecast was for 5.22% with a rounded peak of 5.3% seen for five consecutive quarters from Q2-26 to Q2-27.
- Payrolls numbers are prone to revision and the ONS does note that towards the end of the fiscal year the numbers are prone to larger revisions. This week’s release also sees the potential for bigger revisions, too, with the seasonal adjustment model due to be re-estimated. Payrolls data is expected to see a modest 10k fall in the February flash data following the -11k flash we saw in January (which was accompanied by upward revisions in the 2025 payroll change from -184k to -121k).
