MNI US OPEN - US Challenger Job Layoffs Surge in October

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI BOE PREVIEW - IT'S ALL ABOUT BAILEY
• US CHALLENGER JOB CUT ANNOUNCEMENTS JUMPED 175% Y/Y TO 153K IN OCTOBER
• TRUMP’S TOUGH DAY AT SUPREME COURT PUTS TARIFFS IN JEOPARDY - WSJ
• NORGES BANK HOLDS, NOT IN HURRY TO CUT

Figure 1: Challenger layoffs surge to highest October since 2003

NEWS

MNI BOE PREVIEW: It's All About Bailey

Thursday's MPC decision is far from certain - indeed we would categorise our own view of the outcome as 50/50 between a 25bp cut and a hold. We look at the drivers for each members' vote and the key data since the last meeting / August forecasts. In essence, we think a 5-4 vote is the most likely outcome but that it could deliver a cut or a hold. Governor Bailey's vote will be the deciding factor here, in our view.

US/CHINA (MNI): China Open to EU Trade Deal - MOFCOM

MNI (Beijing) China is willing to explore the negotiatiion of various economic and trade agreements with the EU, including an investment agreement, Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He Yadong told reporters on Thursday. The China and the EU share broad common interests and have vast potential for cooperation in the economic and trade fields, He added. China wants concessions from the European Union such as a reduction in tariffs on its electric vehicles before including the bloc in a one-year suspension of export restrictions on its rare earths which it has agreed with the U.S., EU officials recently told MNI.

US/ASIA (BBG): Trump to Host Central Asia Leaders as Resources Race Heats Up

President Donald Trump will host a summit with five central Asian countries as the US steps up competition for influence in the vast energy- and mineral-rich region where China and Russia have long held sway. Trump is meeting with representatives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in an event intended to mark the 10th anniversary of the so-called C5+1 format, according to the White House.

US (WSJ): Trump’s Tough Day at Supreme Court Puts Tariffs in Jeopardy

President Trump’s global tariffs ran headlong into a skeptical Supreme Court on Wednesday, with justices across the spectrum expressing doubt that a 1970s emergency-powers law could be read to provide the president unilateral authority to remake the international economy and collect billions of dollars in import taxes without explicit congressional approval. But even if the court strikes down the tariffs Trump initiated on his self-declared Liberation Day last April, the justices gave little indication how they might unwind the president’s signature economic policy and favorite diplomatic tool.

US (NYT): Trump Officials to Cut Air Traffic at 40 Major Airports if Shutdown Continues

The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that it would cut 10 percent of air traffic at 40 of the nation’s busiest airports, in a move that analysts said would force airlines to cancel thousands of flights while the administration tries to push Democrats to end the government shutdown. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the reductions were an attempt to “alleviate the pressure” on air traffic controllers, who have been working without compensation since the start of the shutdown and have not received a paycheck since mid-October.

US (WSJ) Trump Expresses Reservations Over Strikes in Venezuela to Top Aides

President Trump has recently expressed reservations to top aides about launching military action to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fearing that strikes might not compel the autocrat to step down, according to U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations.

NORGES BANK (MNI): Norges Bank Holds, Not in Hurry to Cut

Norges Bank left the policy rate on hold at 4.0% at its November meeting, as widely expected, and restated its guidance that if the economy evolved as expected "the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year." Governor Ida Wolden Bache stated that "the job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed and we are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate." Her comments seem to tilt away from a December cut. The economic assessment noted that, while inflation was slightly lowered than expected, restrictive policy was still needed.

ECB (MNI): ECB Bond Portfolio Tilt to Shorter Assets - Schnabel

The European Central Bank’s new structural bond portfolio is likely to be tilted towards shorter-dated assets to avoid interferences with monetary policy transmission, ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday. In a speech in Frankfurt, Schnabel said that the SBP would be guided by the principles of policy stance neutrality, preservation of policy space, and ensuring the financial soundness of the central bank.

UK (FT): Leverage Creeps Into Gilts Market as Insurers Seek to Boost Returns

Insurers are increasingly using borrowed money to enhance the returns they earn on their gilt holdings, raising concerns that risky leverage is creeping back into the market for UK government debt. Legal & General, Phoenix Group and Pension Insurance Corporation are among the firms using gilt-backed derivative trades after a collapse in the gap between corporate and government borrowing costs threatened the profitability of “buyout” deals, where insurers take over big chunks of companies’ pension liabilities.

BOJ (MNI INTERVIEW): Ex-BOJ's Kameda Sees Dec Hike, Ueda Not Dovish

A former BOJ chief economist shares his policy rate outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

RBA (MNI EXCLUSIVE): RBA Cash Rate Strategy Hinges on Q4 Data - Former Staffers

Former RBA staffers share their cash rate outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

MNI CNB PREVIEW: Steady as She Goes

The CNB remains in a holding pattern, with the current slightly restrictive monetary policy settings deemed appropriate to tackle lingering inflationary risks. With the two-week repo rate sitting at 3.50%, the upper end of the range of neutral-rate estimates, a resumption of monetary easing in this cycle hangs in the balance. We expect the Bank Board to stand pat on rates at least until the end of this year as it monitors the evolution of risks and price developments.

MNI BANXICO PREVIEW: Majority to Maintain Easing Bias

Banxico is expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut on Thursday, bringing the overnight target rate down to 7.25%. Although core inflation remains stuck above the ceiling of the 2-4% target range, the majority of the Board continues to place more emphasis on the weakness of economic activity. Nonetheless, the vote is likely to be split once again, with Deputy Governor Heath continuing to focus on the stalling of the core disinflation process. Focus will therefore remain on the forward guidance, which is likely to keep the door open to further easing ahead given the backdrop of Fed rate cuts and a resilient Mexican peso.

BCB (MNI): Keeping 15.00% Rate For Longer Will Be Enough

The Central Bank of Brazil reiterated in its statement on Wednesday that its interest rate should be kept at 15% for a "prolonged period," this time asserting the strategy will be enough to bring inflation to the target. BCB held its official Selic rate at 15% for a third time and slightly changed the wording in its forward guidance, now stating more forcefully that keeping the policy rate at its current level is sufficient to bring inflation to target within the relevant horizon, which is currently set as the second quarter of 2027. In its previous decision in September, the board said it would continue evaluating whether the strategy would be enough.

ARGENTINA (FT): Milei Defies Calls to Float Argentine Peso Freely

Argentine President Javier Milei has rejected investor calls to allow the peso to float freely, after the US spent an estimated $2bn propping up the currency in the run-up to his victory in midterm elections. Buoyed by an unexpectedly large win over the leftwing opposition Peronists, Milei vowed in an interview with the Financial Times to accelerate his free-market reforms and deepen his alliance with President Donald Trump. “We have to ensure... we can kill the socialist ideas which have ruined this country for 100 years,” he said.

DATA

US DATA (MNI): Challenger Layoffs Surge To Highest October Since 2003

An earlier than scheduled release of the Challenger jobs report has recorded a surge in job cut announcements in October to its highest for an October since 2003. The increase is driven by warehousing and tech with the press release citing cost-cutting and AI. 

• Challenger job cut announcements jumped 175% Y/Y to 153k in October, the highest for an October since 2003, having easily surpassed the 113k of Oct 2008 for a striking comparison.
• As opposed to the DOGE-induced surge in layoffs at the beginning of the year, government layoffs were only 8k in October.
• Instead, warehousing layoffs drove the rise with 48k vs 1.4k a year ago (“The surge suggests ongoing overcapacity and automation-driven restructuring following pandemic-era growth”), followed by tech layoffs at 33k vs 3.6k a year ago.
• Job cut announcements have summed to 1.1mn in the year to date for the highest outside of the pandemic since the 1.2mn in 2009, up from 664k in 2024 and 641k in 2023 for this time of year. Whilst these won’t correct for any announcements that then weren’t followed through with, it’s still a notable comparison.
• Ex-government layoffs meanwhile sum to 792k for a still sizeable increase from the 627k in 2024 and 640k in 2023. This is also the highest since 2009 outside of 2020.
• The Challenger press release on this comparison with Oct 2003: “That month, large announcements occurred in Retail due to acquisitions and in Telecommunication as cell phones gained wide adoption.” Today’s release for Oct 2025 sees “the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008. Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape.”
• “Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes.”

EUROZONE OCT CONSTRUCTION PMI 44.0 (46.0 SEP) (MNI)

GERMANY DATA (MNI): September IP Disappoints Against Expectations

• GERMANY SEP IND PROD +1.3% M/M (VS -3.7% AUG)

German industrial production was weaker than expected in September, also when considering an August upward revision, after MNI flagged downside risks to consensus yesterday. "The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 0.8% lower in the 3rd quarter of 2025 than in the 2nd quarter" "production in industry excluding energy and construction was up 1.9% [M/M]" This means that IP was not able to recover fully from the very weak month of August, with its index continuing to sit close to cycle lows.

FRANCE DATA (MNI): Fall in Q3 Flash Payrolls Underscores Subdued Outlook

Flash Q3 private payrolls data released this morning suggests French labour market conditions remain subdued. Although flash Q3 GDP was stronger-than-expected at 0.5% Q/Q last week, forward looking activity indicators such as the PMIs are weak. Ongoing political/fiscal uncertainty is exerting a toll on French economic conditions. Flash private payrolls fell 0.3% Q/Q, after growing 0.2% in Q2. On an annual basis, private payrolls fell 0.5% Y/Y after -0.1% prior.

SWEDEN DATA (MNI): Firm Oct CPIF; Supports View That Hike Is More Likely Than Another Cut

• SWEDEN FLASH OCT CPIF +3.08% Y/Y
• SWEDEN FLASH OCT CPIF EX-ENERGY +2.76% Y/Y

October flash CPIF ex-energy printed two tenths above the Riksbank' September MPR projection at 2.76% Y/Y (vs 2.70% prior). As always, no details are provided in the flash release so we can't see what's driven the surprise. Taken at face value, the print shouldn't have a major impact on the near-term Riksbank rate path, especially after the steady signals at yesterday's decision. However, it offers more support to our view that the risk of a hike back to 2.00% is greater than the risk of another cut over a 6-12-month horizon.

JAPAN DATA (MNI): Japan Sept Real Wages Negative for Ninth Month

Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages fell 1.4% y/y in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline after a 1.7% fall in August, preliminary data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed Thursday. The data highlight that nominal pay increases continue to lag inflation, leaving households squeezed by high living costs and adding pressure on the government to step up measures against rising prices. Consumer prices excluding imputed rents rose 3.4% y/y in September, up from 3.1% in August, indicating a renewed acceleration in underlying inflation.

AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Gold Prices Boosted Exports But Sep Commodities Generally Robust

• AUSTRALIA SEP TRADE BALANCE A$+3938

Australia's September merchandise trade surplus widened as expected printing at $3938mn driven by a 7.9% m/m jump in exports driven by higher gold prices. Through volatility, the surplus continues its gradual downtrend which it began late in 2025. Capex imports suggests an investment recovery.

FOREX: USD Rally Loses Momentum, Reversal Lower Assisted by Weak US Data

• The broader dollar rally that has been playing out following the FOMC is showing signs of fatigue. Stabilisation for the major equity indices and the USD index reaching its initial objective at the August highs (~100.25) have contributed to the reversal lower on Thursday, with an early release of weak US Challenger job cuts data stoking additional pressure on the greenback.
• The USD index has slipped back below the 100 mark, allowing most G10 currencies to grind away from recent cycle lows. This has prompted EURUSD to rise back above 1.15, while GBPUSD is steadily moving back towards 1.31 ahead of today’s BOE rate decision. Note that the cable downtrend is in oversold territory and a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low.
• In similar vein, USDJPY has once again found resistance above the 154.00 mark, with a cluster of four daily highs between 154.36-48 provide potential signs of a bearish short-term signal. First important support to watch lies at 152.39, the 20-day EMA.
• Higher-than-expected preliminary October CPI data in Sweden has provided a moderate bullish impulse for the Swedish Krona, with USDSEK declines slightly outpacing that of the dollar index. The print shouldn’t have a major impact on the near-term Riksbank rate path, especially after the steady signals at yesterday’s decision.
• Higher oil prices have had more of an impact on the rallying Norwegian Krone, with an on hold Norges Bank and unchanged accompanying guidance doing little to move the NOK needle.
• Elsewhere, AUDNZD is attempting to establish itself above the 1.15 handle, having breached the key 1.1491 high earlier in the week. The cross is currently operating at the highest levels since 2013.

EGBS: Tight Ranges, Spreads to Bunds Little Changed

Bund futures stick to a tight 19-tick range, with more focus being placed on U.S. headlines and the impending BoE decision than European matters.

• Contract last +10 at 129.15. Initial support and resistance located at 128.80 and 129.73, respectively. The recent bearish theme remains intact, having deepened after the piercing of support at the 50-day EMA.
• German yields 0.5-1.0bp lower.
• 10-Year EGB spreads vs. Bunds little changed.
• Spill over from early London demand for gilts and the latest U.S. Challenger job cuts data was noted but proved short-lived.
• The latest round of SPGB auctions saw solid demand, while French supply passed smoothly.
• Further forward on the curve, yesterday's announcement that ETS2 is likely to be delayed by one-year had little impact on ECB-dated OIS pricing. Markets retain an easing bias, with just under a 50% implied probability of one more cut this cycle. That said, there was a noticeable uptick in Euribor call options activity, particularly in calls tied to the ERH6 contract.
• Comments from ECB’s Schnabel, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets, did little.
• ECB’s Lane, Villeroy, Nagel & Vujcic are due to speak throughout the day. 

GILTS: Off Highs, BoE Due

Gilts have faded from early highs, immediate focus on the impending BoE decision.

• Futures +3 at 93.17 vs. highs of 93.33.
• The contract broke support at 93.15 during yesterday’s sell off.
• Initial support and resistance now located at the 20-day EMA (92.91) and the November 4 high (93.98). Bulls remain in technical control.
• Yields little changed to 1bp lower.
• Gilt/Bunds trades at ~180bp after failing to close below 175bp earlier this week. We previously noted that there was less room for gilt outperformance vs. Bunds absent fresh catalysts
• RTRS flags that investors overseeing over $5tln in assets are urging Chancellor Reeves to double the size of the UK’s financial buffer:.
• Meanwhile, the FT reported that “insurers are increasingly using borrowed money to enhance the returns they earn on their gilt holdings, raising concerns that risky leverage is creeping back into the market for UK government debt.
• SONIA futures flat to +2.0.
• BoE-dated OIS prices just over 5bp of easing for today’s decision.
• STIRs comfortably off October dovish extremes.
• We have characterised our view re: today’s meeting as 50/50 (between a cut and a hold), much more dovish than both market pricing and the sell-side consensus (9/47 surveyed by BBG look for a cut).
• A reminder that today’s STR operation will take place 13:10 (rather than the usual 10:40), the usual practice on BoE days.

EQUITIES: Recent Short-Term Weakness for E-Mini S&P Considered Corrective

Recent weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to have been corrective. The contract has found support at the 50-day EMA, at 5571.29. Support below the EMA lies at 5560.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A breach of this level and the 50-day EMA, is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on resistance and the bull trigger at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 6805.85, has been breached. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the 50-day EMA at 6706.92 - a key pivot support. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 671.41 pts or +1.34% at 50883.68 and the TOPIX ended 45.16 pts higher or +1.38% at 3313.45.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 38.512 pts or +0.97% at 4007.76 and the HANG SENG ended 550.49 pts higher or +2.12% at 26485.9.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 37.03 pts or -0.15% at 24012.87, FTSE 100 lower by 19.83 pts or -0.2% at 9757.21, CAC 40 down 31.67 pts or -0.39% at 8042.56 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.35 pts or -0.06% at 5665.78.
• Dow Jones mini down 30 pts or -0.06% at 47410, S&P 500 mini down 1.75 pts or -0.03% at 6823.25, NASDAQ mini down 19.25 pts or -0.07% at 25727.5.

Time: 10:10 GMT

COMMODITIES: Gold Extends Recovery Off Tuesday's Lows

WTI futures are trading below recent highs, however, a short-term corrective bull cycle remains in play. Price has recently traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, currently at $60.97. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, Oct 20 low. A fresh cycle low recently in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The move down since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3871.7 - a key pivot support. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.

• WTI Crude up $0.49 or +0.82% at $60.08
• Natural Gas up $0.07 or +1.75% at $4.311
• Gold spot up $28.2 or +0.71% at $4007.71
• Copper up $2.65 or +0.53% at $501.25
• Silver up $0.57 or +1.19% at $48.5988
• Platinum up $3.66 or +0.23% at $1566.77

Time: 10:10 GMT

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
06/11/2025	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank of England Interest Rate
06/11/2025	1230/1230		GB	BOE Press Conference
06/11/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
06/11/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
06/11/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity
06/11/2025	1400/1400		GB	Decision Maker Panel Data
06/11/2025	1500/1000	*	CA	Ivey PMI
06/11/2025	1500/1000	**	US	Wholesale Trade
06/11/2025	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
06/11/2025	1530/1030		CA	BOC Governor Macklem testifies at Senate.
06/11/2025	1600/1100		US	NY Fed's John Williams
06/11/2025	1600/1100		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
06/11/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
06/11/2025	1630/1130	**	US	US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
06/11/2025	1700/1200		US	Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
06/11/2025	1830/1930		EU	ECB Lane at IMF Conference
06/11/2025	1900/1400	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
06/11/2025	2030/1530		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
06/11/2025	2130/1630		US	Philly Fed's Anna Paulson
06/11/2025	2230/1730		US	St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem
07/11/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	Household Spending
07/11/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
07/11/2025	0745/0845	*	FR	Foreign Trade
07/11/2025	0800/0300		US	New York Fed's John Williams
07/11/2025	1110/1110		GB	BOE Saporta at ECB Money Market Conference
07/11/2025	1200/0700		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
07/11/2025	1200/1200		GB	BOE Market Participants Survey
07/11/2025	-	***	CN	Trade
07/11/2025	-		GB	BOE MPG Agenda Published
07/11/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
07/11/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
07/11/2025	1330/1430		EU	ECB Elderson at Bundesbank Event
07/11/2025	1500/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
07/11/2025	1500/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
07/11/2025	1515/1515		GB	BOE Pill At National Agency Briefing
07/11/2025	1600/1100	**	US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
07/11/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
07/11/2025	2000/1500	*	US	Consumer Credit
07/11/2025	2000/1500		US	Fed Governor Stephen Miran

Note: Due to U.S. government shutdown, some data may be unavailable.