EQUITIES: Recent Short-Term Weakness for E-Mini S&P Considered Corrective

Nov-06 10:09

Recent weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to have been corrective. The contract has found support at the 50-day EMA, at 5571.29. Support below the EMA lies at 5560.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A breach of this level and the 50-day EMA, is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on resistance and the bull trigger at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 6805.85, has been breached. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the 50-day EMA at 6706.92 - a key pivot support. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

  • Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 671.41 pts or +1.34% at 50883.68 and the TOPIX ended 45.16 pts higher or +1.38% at 3313.45.
  • Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 38.512 pts or +0.97% at 4007.76 and the HANG SENG ended 550.49 pts higher or +2.12% at 26485.9.
  • Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 37.03 pts or -0.15% at 24012.87, FTSE 100 lower by 19.83 pts or -0.2% at 9757.21, CAC 40 down 31.67 pts or -0.39% at 8042.56 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.35 pts or -0.06% at 5665.78.
  • Dow Jones mini down 30 pts or -0.06% at 47410, S&P 500 mini down 1.75 pts or -0.03% at 6823.25, NASDAQ mini down 19.25 pts or -0.07% at 25727.5.

Historical bullets

BUNDS: German 2s/5s Swap Curve Trade

Oct-07 10:01
  • DUZ5 ~8.1k at 107.00 (suggest receiver).
  • OEZ5 ~2.8k at 117.78 (suggest payer).

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Spread with Put Spread strip

Oct-07 09:58

EURM6 98.1875/98.25cs 1x1.75 with ERH6 98.00/97.9375ps sold as a strip at 1 in 4k.

GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: Disappointing Bobl Auction

Oct-07 09:49
  • The 1.11x bid-to-cover achieved at today's auction of the 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl was the joint lowest at a Bobl auction since July 2021 (1.11x was also reached in July 2022). Bid-to-offer also very weak at 0.84x.
  • Demand metrics were similarly weak for other parts of the German curve recently but this has been the first time this has filtered through to the extent seen today to the Bobl segment.
  • The low price achieved at the auction (99.48) was above the secondary market mid-price right before the cutoff (99.467), at least.
  • No discernible price impact of the weak results on the line, this is not untypical for German auctions.