SWEDEN: Firm Oct CPIF; Supports View That Hike Is More Likely Than Another Cut
October flash CPIF ex-energy printed two tenths above the Riksbank’ September MPR projection at 2.76% Y/Y (vs 2.70% prior).
- As always, no details are provided in the flash release so we can’t see what’s driven the surprise.
- Taken at face value, the print shouldn’t have a major impact on the near-term Riksbank rate path, especially after the steady signals at yesterday’s decision.
- However, it offers more support to our view that the risk of a hike back to 2.00% is greater than the risk of another cut over a 6-12-month horizon.
- Light SEK strength seen in the wake of the release, with NOKSEK falling 0.1%. The overnight low of 0.935 remains untested though.
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SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave
- RES 4: $49.804 - All-time high Apr 2011 and major resistance
- RES 3: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $49.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $48.838 - 3.000 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- PRICE: $48.380 @ 08:05 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: $45.913/44.764 - Low Oct 2 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $41.872 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle on Monday, as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $48.838 next, a 3.000 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $49.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $44.764, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4071 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3985 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3955 @ 08:00 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3834 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s clearance of the late September’s high, reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3834, the 50-day EMA.
NORWAY: Manufacturing Production Momentum Down In Q3, But Growth Still Positive
Norwegian manufacturing industrial production momentum has fallen from the highs seen in Q2, but continues to exhibit positive growth. Manufacturing production rose 0.7% M/M in August, with July’s reading revised up four tenths to 0.4%. That left 3m/3m growth at 0.3% (vs 0.4% in July, 2.3% in June).
- Sentiment gauges (e.g. Regional Network Survey, Stats Norway business confidence and the manufacturing PMI) are consistent with positive production in the coming months.
- Meanwhile, Norges Bank wrote in its September MPR that “investment in manufacturing and mining and quarrying is likely to increase notably in 2026”. The report noted that “investment in these sectors has been unusually high in recent years, driven in part by the energy transition and defence investment. The same conditions will likely sustain high investment in the period ahead”.
- Overall, there isn’t anything obvious in the data to move Norges Bank away from its cautious easing path. Domestic focus remains on Friday’s September inflation report.
