MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Yen Falls As PM Ishiba Steps Down

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• FED TO CUT FASTER AFTERWEAKER  JOBS - ENGLISH - MNI INTERVIEW 
• JAPAN’S PM ISHIBA TO STEP DOWN, PAVING WAY FOR NEW LEADER - BBG 
• MNI LOOKS AT THE BOJ’S BOND YIELD CONCERNS - MNI POLICY 
• JAPAN Q2 GDP REVISED UP ON CONSUMPTION - MNI BRIEF 
• CHINA'S AUG EXPORTS UP 4.4%; IMPORTS UP 1.3% - MNI BRIEF 

Fig 1:  USD/JPY Diverging From US-JP Yield Differentials, Political Uncertainty Weighs On Yen 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/MNI. 

UK 

WAGES (BBG): “Wages for new hires in the UK rose at their weakest pace in over four years, a sign that a cooling labor market is weighing on inflationary pressures, according to a survey monitored by the Bank of England.” 

LABOUR (BBC): “The leader of the UK's biggest trade union has warned it would be a "huge mistake" for the government to water down its Employment Rights Bill, which is due to become law in the next few weeks.”

DEFENCE (BBC): “The UK government will unveil a new Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) on Monday, backed by £250m in funding, to support regional economic growth and boost innovation in the defence sector.

TRANSPORT (BBC): “London Underground staff have started a five-day walkout over pay and conditions. Members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) union are carrying out rolling action over pay and "fatigue management", and have asked for a 32-hour week.”

EU

ECB (MNI SOURCES): Data-Led ECB To Hold A Cut In Reserve If Needed

FRANCE (RTRS): “France's fourth prime minister in three years, François Bayrou, faces almost certain defeat in a confidence vote on Monday, tipping the euro zone's second-biggest economy further into political uncertainty.”

EU (POLITICO): “When the European Commission president makes her first State of the European Union address of her second term on Wednesday, critics will accuse her of weakening Europe by selling out to Donald Trump via a lopsided U.S. trade deal, of abandoning farmers by endorsing an agreement with South America, of unraveling policies to tackle climate change, and of staying silent on Gaza.”

RUSSIA (BBG): “The US and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russia, hoping that a Russian economic “collapse” will bring Vladimir Putin to peace talks with Ukraine, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.” 

UKRAINE (BBC): “Ukraine's main government building in Kyiv has been hit for the first time in the war during Russian attacks, the Ukrainian prime minister has said.”

NORWAY (BBC): “Norwegians go to the polls on Sunday and Monday in a tight race to decide whether to continue with a Labour-led government or turn to the centre right.”

NATO (POLITICO): “Russia's neighbors are preparing for a nervous few days next week when the Kremlin holds its Zapad 2025 war games along with its ally Belarus, its first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The drills, running Sept. 12–16, will have some maneuvers taking place close to Poland and Lithuania as the Kremlin practices for a possible clash with NATO forces.”

US

FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The August U.S. jobs report is likely to amplify the Federal Reserve's concerns about a cooling labor market, prompting the central bank to cut interest rates as many as three times this year, former director of the Fed Board's division of monetary affairs William English told MNI.

FED (MNI BRIEF): Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said he's not yet convinced of the need to cut interest rates at the central bank's meeting this month because although payrolls numbers are weaker than expected, the picture is complicated by immigrations restrictions, and inflation is still showing worrisome signs. 

FED (MNI): The Federal Open Market Committee on Friday announced its tentative meeting schedule for 2027. The Committee releases a policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on the second day of each regularly scheduled meeting, and the Chair holds a news conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time the same day.

JOBS (MNI BRIEF): U.S. hiring cooled again in August and the unemployment rate ticked a tenth higher, paving the way for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve as soon as this month. 

EUROPE (POLITICO): “President Donald Trump threatened to impose more tariffs against the European Union Friday after the bloc levied a €2.95 billion fine against Google for violating anti-monopoly laws.”

OTHER

JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s economy expanded faster in April–June than initially estimated, as stronger private consumption offset weaker capital investment, second preliminary GDP data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday. GDP rose 0.5% q/q, or an annualised 2.2%, up from the first estimate of 0.3% q/q, or 1.0% annualised.

JAPAN (MNI POLICY): MNI looks at the BOJ's bond yield concerns.

JAPAN (BBG): “Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he’ll step down following weeks of calls for his departure in the aftermath of a second national election setback, setting in motion a leadership race that threatens to unnerve investors.” 

MIDDLE EAST (BBG): “ President Donald Trump said Hamas needs to accept his terms to end its war with Israel as he continues to press for an end to the fighting.” 

CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Friday launched measures to blunt the impact of the U.S. trade war including a CAD5 billion industrial relief fund and re-training for 50,000 workers, coming ahead of an October budget expected to come in with a deficit well above his election platform of around CAD65 billion.

SOUTH KOREA /US (RTRS): South Korea is moving to pick up Korean workers following a raid in the U.S. state of Georgia last week, a Korean presidential official said on Sunday as the Trump administration promised more raids on businesses.

CHINA 

TRADE (MNI BRIEF): China's exports increased 4.4% y/y in August, while imports rose 1.3%, data released by China Customs showed on Monday. Exports in August reached USD321.8 billion, up 4.4% y/y, slowing down from the prior month's 7.2% growth, and behind the forecasted 5.4%. Imports rose 1.3% in August, down from July's 4.1% rise and failed meeting the market consensus of a 3.5% increase.

BOND PURCHASES (CSJ): “Expectations are mounting that the People’s Bank of China may resume government bond trading before the end of the year, as fiscal and monetary policies are expected to become more closely coordinated to maintain ample market liquidity, stabilize financial markets, and support the country’s ongoing economic recovery, China Securities Journal says, citing experts.” 

FX RESERVES (SECURITIES DAILY): China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD3.3 trillion at the end of August, up 0.91% m/m, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). 

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY8.8 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY191.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY8.8 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY182.7 billion today, according to Wind Information. 

• The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4174% at 09:37 am local time from the close of 1.4372% on Friday.
• The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 50 on Friday, compared with the close of 49 on Thursday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium. 

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1029 Mon; -0.20% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1029 on Monday, compared with 7.1064 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1323 by Bloomberg survey today

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.20% In Week of Sep 5

The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 96.77 on Sep 5, up 0.20% from 96.57 on Aug 29.

MARKET DATA

JAPAN JULY CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS Y2.684T; EST. +Y3.354T; JUN. +Y1.348T
JAPAN JULY ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS Y1.88T; EST. +Y2.58T; JUN. +Y2.40T
JAPAN JULY TRADE DEFICIT Y189.4B; EST. +Y58.0B; JUN. +469.6B

JAPAN Q2 GDP +2.2% SAAR; EST. +1.0%; PRE. +1.0%; Q1 +0.3%
JAPAN FINAL Q2 GDP +0.5% Q/Q; EST. +0.3%; PRE. +0.3%; Q1 +0.1%
JAPAN FINAL Q2 PRIVATE CONSUMPTION +0.4% Q/Q; EST. +0.2%; PRE. +0.2%; Q1 0.0%
JAPAN FINAL Q2 BUSINESS SPENDING +0.6% Q/Q; EST. +1.3%; PRE. +1.3%; Q1 +0.7%
JAPAN Q2 INVENTORY CONTRIBUTION TO GDP ZERO; EST. -0.3 PP; PRE. -0.3 PP; Q1 +0.7 PP
JAPAN FINAL Q2 NET EXPORTS CONTRIBUTION TO Q/Q GDP +0.3 PP; PRE. +0.3 PP; Q1 -0.8 PP
JAPAN GDP DEFLATOR Q2 3.0% Y/Y; EST. 3.0%; PRE. 3.0%; Q1 3.3%

JAPAN BANK LENDING INC TRUSTS AUG +3.6% Y/Y; JUL +3.2%
JAPAN BANK LENDING EXC TRUSTS AUG +3.9% Y/Y; JUL +3.5%

JAPAN AUG. ADJ. ECO WATCHERS CURRENT INDEX 46.7; EST. 45.6; JULY 45.2
JAPAN AUG. ADJ. ECO WATCHERS OUTLOOK INDEX 47.5; EST. 47.5; JULY 47.3

CHINA AUG. EXPORTS IN USD +4.4% Y/Y; EST. +5.5%; JUL. +7.2%
CHINA AUG. IMPORTS IN USD +1.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.4%; JUL +4.1%
CHINA AUG. TRADE SURPLUS $102.33B; EST. +$99.45B; +$98.24B
CHINA AUG. EXPORTS +4.8% Y/Y IN YUAN; JUL. +8.0%
CHINA AUG. IMPORTS +1.7% Y/Y IN YUAN; JUL. +4.8%

CHINA FOREIGN RESERVES AUG. $3322.1B; EST. $3317.0B; JUL. $3292.2B

MARKETS

US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Retrace A Little In Asia

The TYZ5 range has been 113-07+ to 113-14 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 113-08+, down 0-04 from the previous close. 

• The US 2-year yield has edged higher trading around 3.526%, up 0.02 from its close.
• The US 10-year yield has edged lower trading around 4.099%, up 0.02 from its close.
• 10-Year Yields have broken through its support as the market reacts to a labour market that is rapidly cooling. This move should now see buyers return on bounces with the first buy-zone back towards 4.20%. First target the 4.00% zone then the 3.80% area.
• Zerohedge on X: “Morgan Stanley: We now expect quarterly rate cuts beginning in September for a terminal target range of 2.75-3.0% by end-2026.”
• (Bloomberg) - “Standard Chartered Sees Half-Point Fed Rate Cut This Month. Standard Charterer’s strategists see more aggressive easing, changing their previous call for a 25bp Fed interest-rate cut, following a weaker-than-expected payroll report Friday. “We think the August labor-market data has opened the door to a ‘catch-up’ 50bps rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, just as it did this time last year,” strategists John Davies and Steve Englander, write in a note.”
• Holger Zschaepitz on X: "The real surprise came in the revisions: BLS revealed that the US economy lost 13k jobs in June, marking the first monthly decline in employment since Dec2020. That also means the 53mth streak of continuous job growth ended in May; a major turning point for the US labor market.”
• Bob Elliott on X: “Labor market weakening needed to get the cuts so many want also means that  growth is far weaker than what's currently priced in.”
• Data/Events: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations, Consumer Credit

Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JGBS: Futures Off Friday Highs, Swap Rates Higher For 20-40 Yr

JGB futures sit at 137.98, +.02 versus settlement levels in latest dealings. We are away from Friday highs (138.37), but dips under 138.00 have been support so far today.  

• Focus remains on who will be the new PM, after Ishiba decided to step down over the weekend. Local media report that the leadership election may be held on Oct 4 (per TBS via BBG). An official announcement is expected tomorrow. A number candidates are likely to put their names forward.
• When Ishiba secured the PM position last Oct, the runner up was Sanae Takaichi. Via ABC news: "A Nikkei survey held at the end of August put Ms Takaichi as the most "fitting" successor to Ishiba." Takaichi could arguably generate the most significant market reaction if she is successful becoming the new PM, as she has been outspoken in terms of being more dovish in terms of the BoJ outlook and looking to boost fiscal spending. Former Minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, will reportedly run.
• Earlier on the data front, we had Q2 GDP revisions, which were firmer than market expectations. Stronger private consumption offset weaker capital investment the data showed.
• The cash JGB 2/30s curve is steeper, but away from session highs (+245bps) We were last +243bps. The outright 10yr yield is little changed, last near 1.575%.
• In the swap space, the move in 20-40yr rates has been larger than the cash JGB yield move. The 30yr is up around 5bps, last near 2.52%.
• Tomorrow on the data front, we have August money stock figures and August machine tool orders. 

AUSSIE BONDS: Futures Holding Firmer, But Away From Session Highs

Aussie bond futures hold positive but away from from best levels for the session. The 10yr future (XM) was last at 95.685, +5bps. Session highs rest at 95.70. 3yr futures (YM), were last 96.55 (+3.5bps). Session highs rest at 96.59. The slight softness in US TSY futures, with TY off -04+, maybe crimping Aussie bond futures gains at the margin. 

• In the cash ACGB yield space, we are around 3-5bps weaker across the curve, led by the back end. The 3yr yield near 3.43%, off close to 4bps, while the 10yr is just under 4.29%, off close to 5bps.
• The ACGB 3/10s curve is just under +86bps, so like elsewhere, moving off recent highs.
• The AU-US 10yr differential sits off recent highs last around +20bps.
• Local news flow has been light, while the data focus this week will be on Tuesday survey/sentiment data. Tuesday sees September Westpac consumer confidence which rose each of the four months to August helped by lower rates and the prospects of further RBA easing. The NAB August business survey is also out on Tuesday. Business confidence has been trending higher since March and is positive again.

BONDS: NZGBS: Yields Lower, 2/10s Curve 8bps Flatter From Recent Highs

NZGB benchmark yields are holding lower across the benchmark, although the 2yr yield is a touch above opening lows. The 2yr yield was last near 2.93%, still down close to 3bps for the session. The 10yr is holding close to session lows, last near 4.33%, off nearly 6bps.

• The NZGB 2/10s curve has flattened further, last around +140bps. Highs from last week were close to +148bps.
• The NZ 2yr swap rate is around 2.74%, against earlier lows near 2.72%. This leaves late August lows still near-by.
• US Tsy yields have drifted a little higher in the first part of Monday dealings, but are still holding the bulk of Friday losses. The 10yr benchmark is still just under 4.10%.
• Local news flow has been light and while Q2 manufacturing activity prints tomorrow, it is unlikely to shift market sentiment. Q2 GDP prints on 18 of Sep. 

FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Support Continues To Hold For Now

The BBDXY has had a range of 1202.47 - 1204.11 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1203, +0.10%. The USD was again surprisingly able to shrug off the extension lower in US yields and found solid demand below 1200 helping it keep the support in place for now. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows.

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1704 - 1.1721, Asia is currently trading 1.1715. The pair bounced on Friday in response to the NFP but momentum stalled into the close. EUR trades firmly within its wider 1.1350-1.1850 range with a bias to the topside.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3483 - 1.3506, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3495. The pair bounced strongly off its support around 1.3350 last week. The move above 1.3500 on NFP has stalled but price is now back in the middle of its 1.3350-1.3650 range. A sustained break below 1.3350 is needed to open up a move back to 1.3100.
• USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1244 - 7.1283, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1029, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1325. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2200/2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2500 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
• Cross asset : SPX +0.10%, Gold $3581, US 10-Year 4.10%, BBDXY 1203, Crude Oil $62.58
• Data/Events : EZ Sentix Investor Confidence, Germany Industrial Production/Trade Balance

Fig 1: BBDXY Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: USD/JPY - Ishiba Gives Leveraged JPY Shorts A Reprieve

The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 147.93-148.58, Asia is currently trading around 148.20, +0.50%. USD/JPY collapsed lower with US yields on Friday in reaction to the NFP, again challenging its support on a 146 handle. This support looked destined to be challenged to start this week but news of Ishiba stepping down has given the JPY bears another reprieve as the market has gapped higher on the open in response. CFTC data shows leveraged funds again added a decent clip to their short JPY position last week so this morning's move will have taken some pressure off them to start the week. Is this news enough to turn USD/JPY higher ? I suspect not but time will tell.

• MNI BRIEF: Japan Q2 GDP Revised Up On Consumption. Japan’s economy expanded faster in April-June than initially estimated, as stronger private consumption offset weaker capital investment, second preliminary GDP data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday.
• Focus will now turn to the LDP leadership race. When Ishiba secured the PM position last Oct, the runner up was Sanae Takaichi. Via ABC news: "A Nikkei survey held at the end of August put Ms Takaichi as the most "fitting" successor to Ishiba."
• Takaichi could arguably generate the most significant market reaction if she is successful becoming the new PM, as she has been outspoken in terms of being more dovish in terms of the BoJ outlook and looking to boost fiscal spending.
• "JAPAN LDP'S AIZAWA: WILL SET LEADERSHIP ELECTION DATE TUESDAY" - BBG
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 146.00($1.1b), 149.00($882m), 145.75($792m).Upcoming Close Strikes : 145.75($1.12b Sept 11), 150.00($1.1b Sept 9)  - BBG.
• CFTC data shows last week asset managers again added to their JPY longs after a consistent period of reduction +78427( Last +76761), leveraged funds though again used the dip to add a decent clip to their newly built short JPY position -66914(Last -52275). One of them is going to be wrong.

Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD/USD - Tries Higher On NFP, Move Stalls Ahead Of 0.6600

The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6546 - 0.6568 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6560, +0.05%. The AUD tried to move higher initially on NFP but momentum failed and it spent the rest of the N/Y session trading heavy and drifting lower. The AUD remains in the middle of its recent multi-month range of 0.6350-0.6650 with little clear long-term direction for now.

• Tuesday sees September Westpac consumer confidence which rose each of the four months to August helped by lower rates and the prospects of further RBA easing. At 98.5 last month, it is now approaching the neutral 100-level. The NAB August business survey is also out on Tuesday. Business confidence has been trending higher since March and is positive again. Conditions however remain soft, although June/July printed above the 2025 average. Employment and cost/price components will be monitored closely.
• MNI INTERVIEW: Fed To Cut Faster After Weaker Jobs - William English. "There's no doubt the labor market report was soft, and that causes them to lean in the direction of easier policy," he said in an interview Friday. "It leans in the direction of easing policy further, faster than maybe the Fed had been inclined to."
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6475(AUD596m), 0.6500(AUD531m), 0.6625(AUD445m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6650(AUD597m Sept 11) - BBG
• CFTC Data last week shows Asset managers reduced their shorts for the first time in a while -66025(Last -78758), the Leveraged community though look to be rebuilding their own shorts after winding them down -11860(Last -6447).
• AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 96.95 - 97.33, Asia is trading around 97.20.The pair looked to have topped out again after NFP, but this morning’s Ishiba news has thrown a spanner in the works. A sustained break above 97.50/98.00 is needed to reignite the upward trend.

Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Consolidates Around 0.5900

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5883 - 0.5904 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5900, +0.12%.  The NZD pushed higher in reaction to the NFP but found good selling above 0.5900 capping the move for now. This 0.5900-0.5950 area presents a good opportunity to fade for those who are bearish the NZD, but the caveat to this trade remains the USD’s ability to not break down. CFTC Data shows light positioning in a market that is struggling for a strong trend.

• Q2 manufacturing data print Tuesday including volumes. Manufacturing volumes rose 2.4% q/q in Q1. Q2 GDP prints on September 18, which the RBNZ expected to fall 0.3% q/q in its August projections.
• Bloomberg - “Dollar Vulnerability Turns to Downtrend on Payroll Miss. Further dollar weakness looks inevitable, with soft jobs data and falling rate expectations reinforcing the case for sustained downside. Together, easier Fed policy and the potential return of passive hedging flows create a feedback loop that makes sustained dollar strength increasingly difficult to justify.”
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5800(NZD515m Sept 10), 0.5870(NZD320m Sept 10) - BBG
• CFTC Data of last week shows Asset Managers added slightly to their new short position in the NZD -5127(Last -4743), the Leveraged community have completely exited their short and have turned a fraction long +285(Last -225).
• AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.1115 - 1.1133, currently trading 1.1120. The Cross is consolidating above 1.1100, dips back towards 1.1000/1.1050 should be supported now.

Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: Strong Start to the Week for Regional Bourses

Japanese equities have greeted the political news positively with strong gains, post PM Ishiba's decision to step down as leader. This injects fresh political uncertainty into Japan's broader economic outlook. Focus will now turn to the LDP leadership race. When Ishiba secured the PM position last Oct, the runner up was Sanae Takaichi. Via ABC news: "A Nikkei survey held at the end of August put Ms Takaichi as the most "fitting" successor to Ishiba."  Takaichi could arguably generate the most significant market reaction if she is successful becoming the new PM, as she has been outspoken in terms of being more dovish in terms of the BoJ outlook and looking to boost fiscal spending. Shenzhen's announcement that it will join Beijing and Shanghai in easing home-buying rules has given China's building shares a boost in Monday's trading. 

• China's key bourses are all higher, with the exception of the CSI 300 which is flat.  The Hang Seng is up +0.35%, Shanghai up +0.17% and Shenzhen up +0.45%.
• The Nikkei has started the week strongly with gains of +0.90%
• The TAIEX in Taiwan is higher by +0.45%
• The KOSPI's good run is continuing, up +0.17% today.
• The FTSE Malay KLCI was up only marginally in a shortened week last week and is higher by +0.48% today.
• The Jakarta Composite had a modest week last week, yet it up strongly today by +0.55%.
• The NIFTY 50 is up strongly Monday after key industries noted that the benefits from the GST cut will be passed onto consumers. The NIFTY 50 lags regional peers over the last three months as the sole index with falls yet starts this week off, up +0.32% to trade through key technical levels.

OIL: Crude Higher Following OPEC’s Cautious Output Increase

Oil prices fell sharply on Friday ahead of the weekend’s OPEC decision but given the cautious 137kbd increase in the output target from October, there appears to be a relief rally today. WTI is up 1.2% to $62.58/bbl after an earlier peak of $62.70 and Brent is 1.2% higher at $66.27/bbl after reaching $66.36. The USD index is slightly higher. 

• The latest OPEC production increase is significantly less than previous +400kbd rises but the continued rise in the output target signals that it is now focussed on regaining market share. The oil market may have been reassured by its cautious tone though as it said it could withdraw earlier output hikes.
• However, OPEC could still unwind its earlier 1.66mbd reduction in its target, which was scheduled to be in place until end-2026, but it will depend on “evolving market conditions”. The group has added 2.2mbd over the last five months.
• The IEA has forecast a record market surplus for 2026, which has pressured oil prices. The EIA short-term energy outlook is published Tuesday with the IEA and OPEC monthly reports on Thursday.
• Later August NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, July US consumer credit and German July trade & IP print. The focus of the week will be on Tuesday’s US payroll benchmark revisions, Wednesday’s August PPI and Thursday’s August CPI.

GOLD: Bullion Holds Below Friday’s Record High

Gold reached a new record of $3600.16/oz on Friday following disappointing August US payrolls data. It has been unable to return to that level during Monday’s APAC session but has range traded between $3579.73 and $3597.26 and is currently down 0.1% to $3583.5 as the US dollar is marginally stronger and yields slightly higher. Non-interest bearing bullion has found support this month from growing Fed easing expectations. 

• Fed independence remains in focus too with markets awaiting the legal ruling on whether President Trump can remove Governor Cook.
• Silver is underperforming falling 0.9% today to $40.64 after a low of $40.532. It spiked to $41.066 early in the session.
• Equities are generally stronger today with the S&P e-mini up 0.1%, Nikkei +1.3% and Hang Seng +0.4% but the CSI 300 is flat. Oil prices are higher with WTI +1.2% to $62.60/bbl. Copper is up 0.1%.
• Later August NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, July US consumer credit and German July trade & IP print. The focus of the week will be on Tuesday’s US payroll benchmark revisions, Wednesday’s August PPI and Thursday’s August CPI.

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL) 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
08/09/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
08/09/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Industrial Production
08/09/2025	1500/1100	**	US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
08/09/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
08/09/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
08/09/2025	1900/1500	*	US	Consumer Credit
09/09/2025	2301/0001	*	GB	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
09/09/2025	0645/0845	*	FR	Industrial Production
09/09/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
09/09/2025	1000/0600	**	US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
09/09/2025	1150/1350		CH	SNB's Schlegel at BIS fireside chat
09/09/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index