EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: China CPI YoY vs Full Year Target & PPI YoY

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
UK
BUDGET (BBC): “The chancellor's Budget could reduce inflation by half a percentage point next year, a Bank of England deputy governor has said. Clare Lombardelli told the Commons' Treasury committee that measures announced by Rachel Reeves in November will slow the rate at which prices are increasing from April 2026.”
FISCAL (TIMES): “Market confidence in Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves has gained momentum since the summer, prompting experts to proclaim the end of the UK’s “risk premium”, which could save taxpayers billions of pounds.”
HOUSING (TIMES): “The average cost of renting a home in the UK stands at £1,320 a month, according to Zoopla, the property search website, which is 2.2 per cent higher than at this point 12 months ago and the smallest year-on-year increase since July 2021.”
POLITICS (TIMES): “More than a dozen Labour MPs have defied the party whips and voted in favour of the UK rejoining a customs union with the European Union. The group, which included Dame Meg Hillier, the influential chair of the Treasury select committee, backed the Liberal Democrat motion in the Commons despite calls from party managers to abstain from the vote.”
IMMIGRATION (BBC): “The UK could face a £10.8 billion ($14.4 billion) hit due to the restrictions on legal immigration proposed by the government earlier this year, according to an impact assessment from the Home Office. “
EU
MNI BRIEF: Monetary System Becoming More Multipolar -Panetta. The International Monetary System may gradually drift towards a more multipolar configuration due to China’s rise and Europe’s deeper integration, but whether it becomes a source of resilience or fragility will depend on how well it is governed, Bank of Italy head Fabio Panetta said on Tuesday.
FRANCE (BBC): “French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu narrowly survived a crucial test on Tuesday as the country's divided parliament voted in favour of a 2026 budget bill.”
US
MNI INTERVIEW: Political Pressure On Fed Risks Inflation Spike. Periods of elevated political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates have often boosted inflation without doing much for economic growth. Now history risks repeating itself depending on how President Donald Trump’s efforts to influence the central bank play out, an economist at the University of Maryland who just published a paper on the issue told MNI.
FED (BBG): “President Donald Trump said he will be looking at a couple candidates to chair the Federal Reserve, after the Financial Times reported that he would begin interviews with contenders this week. “We’re going to be looking at a couple different people, but I have a pretty good idea of who I want,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Tuesday.”
FED (BBG): “National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said he would rely on his own judgment to decide whether to cut interest rates if he becomes the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Hassett said there is "plenty of room" to cut rates in the months ahead.”
POLITICS (BBG): “Eileen Higgins won Miami's mayoral runoff, beating a candidate backed by President Donald Trump, and becoming the first woman and the first Democrat in nearly three decades to lead the city.”
JAPAN
MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Rises 2.7% Y/Y; Import Price Drops. Japan’s corporate goods price index rose 2.7% y/y in November, unchanged from October’s revised 2.7%, while import prices fell for a 10th straight month, Bank of Japan data showed Wednesday.
OTHER
CANADA (POLITICO): “Canada’s ambassador to the United States and its chief trade negotiator with the Trump administration said she is stepping down in the new year.”
INDONESIA (BBG/FT): “US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is set to speak with a top Indonesian official this week in hopes of salvaging a trade framework at risk of collapsing, the Financial Times reported Tuesday. Greer will speak to Airlangga Hartarto, the Indonesian coordinating minister for Economic Affairs, in an effort to revive a deal struck in July that would see US tariffs on Indonesian goods reduced from a threatened 32% to 19% in exchange for a series of concessions.”
CHINA
MNI INTERVIEW: China Emerging As German Firm’s Export Base. Evolving business conditions in China are prompting German member firms – large industrial players and specialised Mittelstand SMEs – to deepen their integration, expand operations, and use the country as a base for global exports, a senior representative of the German business community in Beijing told MNI, noting that sustained high levels of FDI in China are seen as essential.
INFLATION (MNI): “China’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% y/y in November, up from October's 0.2% growth to hit the highest level since March 2024, in line with expectations for a 0.7% gain, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Wednesday.”
MNI China Press Digest Dec 10: Tax, Economy, Politburo
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY189.8 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY110.5 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY79.3 billion today, according to Wind Information
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0753 Weds; +3.04% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.0753 on Wednesday, compared with 7.0773 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.0752 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND NET MIGRATION OCTOBER 2400, PRIOR 1760
CHINA PPI YoY NOVEMBER -2.2%, EST -2.0%, PRIOR -2.1%
CHINA CPI YoY NOVEMBER +0.7%, EST +0.7%, PRIOR +0.2%
SOUTH KOREA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2.7%, EST 2.6%, PRIOR 2.6%
SOUTH KOREA BANK LENDING TO HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL NOVEMBER KRW1,175.6tn, PRIOR KRW1,173.7tn
MARKETS
US TSYS: FOMC Next, Eyes on the 2026 Outlook
US bond futures are flat to modestly better today in a low volume day. As markets await the FOMC decision the US-10-Yr opened with a modest bid tone to reach 112-04+ before falling back to where it started around 112-03+.
Cash was better bid with yields 0.5bp - 1.0bps lower across the curve with 5-Yr and 7-Yr the outperformers.
Tonight's auction will be a US$69 Bln 17-Week Bills.
SEP/Dot Plot: The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts in the December edition out Wednesday.
JGBS: Little Changed, PM: Econ Growth Vs Rising Yields, 20Y Supply Tomorrow
JGB futures are slightly weaker, -4 compared to settlement levels.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Post-RBA Sell-Off Extends Ahead Of Tomorrow's Jobs Data
ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -5.0) have extended the sell-off that started during yesterday's RBA presser by Governor Bullock. As it stands, futures are 6-10bps weaker, with a flatter curve.
Figure 1: 1Y3M Swap Rate Vs. 3M Swap Rate

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
BONDS: NZGBS: Post-RBNZ Sell-Off Extends Further, 63bps Of Hikes In 2026
NZGBs closed 4-6bps cheaper across benchmarks.

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: USD - BBDXY Well Supported Heading Into FOMC
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1214.46 - 1215.08 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1214, -0.05%. The USD has traded sideways in a quiet Asian session. US yields continue to extend higher as we approach the FOMC, and both risk and the USD have begun to take notice. The USD continues to see decent demand back toward the 1210-1211 area and it looks like the range 1210-1230 could be here for the moment, or at least until the FOMC. On the day look for resistance again back towards the 1216-1218 area where sellers should remerge initially, a break above here would imply a test of the pivot around 1221-1223. The US 10-year yield is approaching the pivotal 4.20% area so the FOMC will have a big say in whether this area breaks or caps yields going into the end of year. Which has direct implications for the fortunes of the USD.
Fig 1: US 10-Year Yield Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: USD/JPY - Stalls Toward 157.00, Drifts Off Overnight Highs
The USD/JPY range today has been 156.56 - 156.94 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 156.60, -0.20%. The pair has drifted lower in Asia after topping out towards 157.00. The move higher overnight was supported by the sell-off in treasuries which has seen yields move quite a bit higher as we approach the FOMC. The U.S. 10-Year yield is approaching the pivotal 4.20% area, a break of which could signal the start of a bigger move higher. The market has been pricing in the fact that the Yen move looks likely to force the BOJ into action in December. This has initially stalled the upward momentum but a hawkish cut from the FOMC tomorrow could potentially undo all that. Technically USD/JPY is in an uptrend, the first big support back toward the 153-155 area has held on very well upon first examination. On the day, look for support back toward 156.00-30, on the topside we should see some initial resistance around 157.00-30, a break above here and the next target is towards 158.00.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD/USD - Treading Water Just Below 0.6650
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6629 - 0.6647 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6640, -0.05%. The AUD/USD has drifted lower today with risk on the backfoot in Asia ahead of the FOMC. US yields continue to rise, the 10-Year is approaching the pivotal 4.20% area as we come closer to the FOMC. The AUD price action remains very constructive and it continues to ignore the pullback in the USD for now. While the AUD remains above 0.6500-0.6550 I suspect dips should continue to be supported. In the Asian session, watch to see if price can continue to hold above 0.6620-0.6630 to rebuild momentum to have another look back toward the 0.6700 area at some point. If that support does not hold I suspect bids will return back towards the 0.6570-0.6600 area. The AUD outperformance is being expressed more clearly in the crosses.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD/USD - Drifts Back Toward 0.5750 Heading Into FOMC
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5761-0.5782 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5765, -0.30%. The NZD/USD has drifted lower in Asia after stalling overnight toward the 0.5800 area and for the first time it is potentially showing some signs of exhaustion with the USD rebounding as we approach the FOMC meeting. First support is around 0.5735-0.5755 area first up and then the more important 0.5670/0.5700 area.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Pricing Pressures Weigh on China as Markets Wait for FOMC
Caution is evident in equity markets today ahead of the FOMC with the focus now on the forward pricing as rate cut expectations begin to diminish. In Japan, markets are agonizing over a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this month, following stronger-than-expected producer price data. This has influenced the Japanese yen and market dynamics, though rising yields are expected as a part of the normalization process. Whilst in China inflation remains weak even though it has hit near term highs. CPI at +0.7% was the strongest print in more than a year and a step towards easing deflationary fears but remain well below the 2% target. Producer pricing remained was negative again, having last printed positive in late 2022. The push pull of deflationary pressures is obvious, weighing heavy on China's stocks today.

OIL: A Hawkish Fed Would Be Seen As Negative For Oil Demand, EIA Data Out Later
Crude has held onto most of Tuesday’s losses during today’s APAC session as it range trades ahead of the Fed decision later. A rate cut is widely expected, which is positive for US energy demand, but a hawkish tone regarding the policy outlook would likely weigh on oil prices. The EIA data release today could also be a market mover.
PRECIOUS METALS: Silver Continues Rally, Gold Waiting For Fed
Gold & silver have held onto Tuesday’s gains during Wednesday’s APAC trading ahead of the Fed decision later. They have received support from a widely expected rate cut but given the recent rally are vulnerable to a hawkish tone or a very close vote. The last decision was split three ways. The US dollar and yields are little changed as those markets also wait for the Fed outcome (see MNI Fed Preview).
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 10/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | CPI Norway | |
| 10/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | Private Sector Production m/m | |
| 10/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | Industrial Production | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1000/1000 | Chancellor Reeves Testifies at TSC on Budget | ||
| 10/12/2025 | 1055/1155 | ECB Lagarde Interview on Currencies/Digital Euro | ||
| 10/12/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | Brazil Final CPI | |
| 10/12/2025 | - | *** | Money Supply | |
| 10/12/2025 | - | *** | Social Financing | |
| 10/12/2025 | - | *** | New Loans | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Cost Index | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | Bank of Canada Policy Decision | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | BOC press conference | ||
| 10/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US DOE Petroleum Supply | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1900/1400 | ** | Treasury Budget | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1900/1400 | *** | FOMC Statement | |
| 10/12/2025 | 1930/1430 | Fed Chair Powell Press Conference | ||
| 11/12/2025 | - | Swiss National Bank Meeting | ||
| 11/12/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | RICS House Prices | |
| 11/12/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | Labor Force Survey | |
| 11/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | Final Inflation Report | |
| 11/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | Final Inflation Report | |
| 11/12/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | SNB Interest Rate Decision | |
| 11/12/2025 | 0950/0950 | BOE Bailey Pre-recorded Chat on Financial Stability | ||
| 11/12/2025 | 1000/1000 | BOE Bailey Gives Evidence At Covid-19 Inquiry | ||
| 11/12/2025 | 1100/0600 | *** | Turkey Benchmark Rate |