Real time insight of US credit markets
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Feb_06_26_US_Credit_Weekly_0039e25091.pdf Spreads were 1bp wider on the week on average as Tech and Financials were the weakest sectors amid renewed Tech/AI fears and ORCL's jumbo $25bn deal. Macro discourse grappled with the impact of Anthropic's latest models on software incumbents, triggering large equity moves. Rates curves saw further steepening pressure. Fund flows continued to be mildly positive for credit. European equities saw their largest inflow since May 2025. Supply was healthy with $60bn+ issued during the week split fairly evenly between Financials and Non-Financials. New issue concessions averaged 3bps and secondary spreads were approximately 1bp wider on the week.
February 06, 2026 20:55Spreads finished the week on average flat at ~76bps with modest strength in Tech and Energy while Healthcare was weak
January 30, 2026 21:11
US Banks: Week in Review Bank Sr spreads tightened ~3bps this week, Subs tightened by ~4bps. It was a week dominated by US Regional banks. Earnings reflected growth led by capital markets and wealth advisory, with modest loan and NII growth. Notably, asset quality overall was stable and frequently improving, in a continuation of recent trends. Post-earnings rush to market from PNC, TFC, USB, KEY, CFG, and HBAN, with earlier week new issues tightening 3-7bps since pricing. Bank Senior spreads: Bank Sub spreads: Regional Bank earnings US Bancorp 4Q25 Credit neutral, modestly beat consensus, with loans and NII modestly rising Y/Y, with healthy asset quality as NCO dipped slightly. Non-interest income fees led growth driven by Global Fund Services on ETF funds growth. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/us-bancorp-4q25-1768915147789 Fifth Third 4Q25 Credit neutral, with stable asset quality and moderate NII growth on loan growth. Pending Comerica acquisition will make it #9 bank in US. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/fifth-third-4q25-fitb-1768919532170 Comerica 4Q25 Credit neutral, with results close to consensus. Biggest driver continues to be its pending acquisition by Fifth Third (Baa1neg/BBB+/A-), which will expand scope of combined business but also poses execution risk of combining a consumer with an institutional-focused bank. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/comerica-4q25-cma-1768920792320 Keycorp 4Q25 Credit neutral, projecting FY26 commercial loan growth of 5% at higher end of peer ranges, and non-depository financial exposure also at higher end of regional peer https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/keycorp-4q25-1768923313971 ALLY 4Q25 Credit neutral. Favorable DEQ trends continue, with modest NCO dip and EPS beat, and strong NIM as deposits and retail loans up modestly. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/ally-4q25-1769004941806 Truist Financial 4Q25 Credit neutral. Modest loan and NII growth with stable asset quality, with growth led by strong investment banking &trading income, followed by wealth. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/truist-financial-4q25-1769011502523 Charles Schwab 4Q25 Credit neutral. Double digit growth as Revs, NI fall a little short of consensus, while net new assets growth beat estimates. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/charles-schwab-4q25-schw-1769015973510 Citizens Financial Group 4Q25 Credit neutral, slightly exceed consensus with NII and loan growth, with YTD improving asset quality trends. Wealth fees, an area of strategic focus, grew +31% YY. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/citizens-financial-group-4q25-1769025122343 Zions Bancorp 4Q25 Credit neutral, with beat to consensus and strong ROTCE, asset quality stable. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/zions-bancorp-4q25-1769004987705 Travelers 4Q25 Credit neutral. Good cost management, with combined ratio improving and solid ROE, while debt/capital remains in the middle of target range. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/travelers-4q25-1769173398447 Huntington Bancshares 4Q25 Credit neutral. Modest organic boosted by Veritex acquisition, while post-acquisition expenses exceed consensus. Fairly active in M&A with pending $7.4B Cadence deal that adds to southwest expansion, but execution remains key. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/huntington-bancshares-4q25-1769090032582 Capital One 4Q25 Messy quarter on 2025 DFS acquisition. While NII beat, Adj EPS fell short on higher than expected expenses, driven by merger, marketing costs. Announces another strategic acquisition, to move into small business corporate cards, a riskier business than global payments network that they picked up from DFS. Operationally, it performed well the last several years, but faces merger-related execution risks. Bonds outperformed since 2023 bank crisis, with less room for error vs more diversified banks like CFG. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/capital-one-4q25-cof-1769119028950 Issuance highlights PNC 5.423 2041 Sub priced at +117 vs FV 120, trading +112 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/pnc-financial-services-dollarbmark-debt-off ering-in-3-parts-fv-1769004553129 US Bancorp: USB 4.481 2032s priced +65 vs FV 65, trading 62 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/us-bancorp-4q25-1768915147789 Truist: TFC 4.597 2032s priced +75 vs FV 71 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/truist-bank-dollarbenchmark-3nc2-3nc2-frn-6 nc5-fv-1769092186028 KeyCorp: KEY 5.305 2037s at +105 vs 115 FV, trading +99 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/keycorp-dollarbenchmark-11nc10-fv-key-17690 05934327 Citizens: CFG 5.299 2036s priced +145 vs FV 135 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/citizens-dollarbenchmark-debt-offering-in-t wo-parts-fv-1769099849167 Huntington Sr/Sub new issue FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/huntington-bancshares-dollarbmark-6nc5-6nc5 -frn-15nc10-fv-1769180544336 CIBC: CM 4.283 2030s priced 63 vs FV 60, trading +56 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/cibc-dollarbenchmark-4nc3-4nc3-frn-sofr-equ iv-fv-cm-176900853938: https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/cibc-dollarbenchmark-4nc3-4nc3-frn-sofr-equ iv-fv-cm-1769008539381
January 23, 2026 16:25US Banks: Week in Review Bank Sr Unsecured spreads overall tightened 2bps for the week, while Bank Subs tightened 3bps. Banks started reporting 4Q, with results overall showing growth led by capital markets and wealth and mid single digit loan and NII growth. The outlook includes repurchases and potential M&A as many banks manage down capital ratios on shifting regulatory capital requirements. Post-earnings new issuance from JPM, WFC, MS, GS received strong interest, with ~25-30bps compression from IPT. In the news, Trump's comments on credit card rate caps impacted card issuers like COF (#1 US card issuer post its DFS acquisition. Regional Banks Key news US Bancorp buying BTIG for up to $1B Credit neutral. USB like larger regionals have some investment banking business; this will enhance its scale and scope of services to institutional investors. Even though this is a bolt-on size deal, execution is key, and the risk here is tempered by the 2 companies' past collaborations. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/us-bancorp-buying-btig-for-up-to-dollar1b-1 768312434563 US Bank Shares Tumble as Trump Slams Credit Card Rates (1) -bbg https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/us-bank-shares-tumble-as-trump-slams-credit -card-rates-1-bbg-1768222010220 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/visa-mastercard-extend-losses-on-trumps-car d-swipe-fees-threat-1768323631455 Regional & Custody Bank earnings PNC 4Q25 Credit neutral. Strong quarter, beat consensus, with mid single digit NII and loan growth and healthy asset quality. Fee revenues up double digits, led by Capital Markets with Card/Cash Management and other services seeing steady growth. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/pnc-4q25-1768569433727 State Street 4Q25 (STT) Credit neutral. Good quarter on growth in servicing fees generated by its market- leading global custody business, though expenses up on big investments and move into digital assets could introduce potential risks. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/state-street-4q25-stt-1768583356509 M&T Bank Corp 4Q25 (MTB) Credit neutral. Stable modest loan growth to pick up 2026, credit quality healthy, loans to CRE ~17%, loans to NDFI ~9%. Continue to adjust CET1 down to target range, via buybacks. Buybacks for now, but CEO sees possible M&A down the road. (Baa1/BBB+/A) https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/mandt-bank-corp-4q25-mtb-1768574097839 Regions Financial 4Q25 (RF) Credit neutral, with NII and NIM rising while loans flat on managed runoff of leveraged loans, while general commitments projects modestly rising loan growth. Asset quality metrics healthy. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/regions-financial-4q25-rf-1768578592278 Issuance Goldman Sachs new deal priced within 0-3bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/goldman-sachs-dollarbenchmark-debt-offering -in-6-parts-fv-1768487956939 Morgan Stanley new deal came within up to 3bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/morgan-stanley-dollarbmark-debt-offering-in -4-parts-launch-1768497653916 Wells Fargo came within up to 15bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/wells-fargo-dollarbenchmark-debt-offering-i n-4-parts-fv-1768483898504 JP Morgan new deal priced within 1-2bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jpmorgan-dollarbenchmark-6nc5-6nc5-frn-11nc 10-guidance-1768412671583 National Bank of Canada new 3NC2 priced at +63 slightly inside FV + 65a, now trading +59 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/national-bank-of-canada-dollarbenchmark-3nc 2-3nc2-frn-fv-1768233901523 JEF comes to market post earnings with new 10Y +143 vs our FV +145a https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jefferies-dollarbenchmark-10y-fv-1768316286 910 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jefferies-4q25-jef-1767830184520 JPM's $6B 3-part new deal comes to market at no concession with 6NC5 at +63, 11NC10 at +76. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jpmorgan-dollarbenchmark-6nc5-6nc5-frn-11nc 10-guidance-1768412671583 4Q25 Aviation Capital Group new 144A: long 3Y +83, 7Y +115, comes at 30+ tight to IPT. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/aviation-capital-group-dollarbmark-guidance -1768410906356 Bank of NY post-earnings new 4NC3 priced at +47 flat to our FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/bny-mellon-dollarbmark-fv-1768402749729 MassMutual FA-backed 3Y priced at +50 or 5 wide of our FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/massmutual-dollarbenchmark-fa-backed-3y-3y- frn-fv-1768403835616 Bank Sr Unsecured spreads:
January 16, 2026 21:19US Credit Update
US IG Autos: Week in Review Bonds in our Auto sector universe underperformed the broader market. Auto spreads widened by 3.2bps on average in the past week while the broad market index only moved 1.1bps wider. The Hyundai/Kia complex seems to be giving up some of its tightening over the past month on soft results and a new focus on robotics and AI. STLA moved wider on its large writedown. APTV bonds performed better on clarity about the E-Systems spinoff terms. US SAAR came in weak and STLA surprised with a big EV writedown, suspension of dividends and plans to issue a credit friendly perp/hybrid. * Aptiv results were slightly weak, showing margin pressure and chip costs rising. It gave some detail on capital structure post EDS spinoff; that was supportive with leverage targeted slightly below current and within Moody's thresholds. Margins should also benefit. * US SAAR estimates for Jan'25 was a surprisingly low 14.85m (Wards) down from 16.02m last month and last year's 15.60m. Projections for SAAR ranged from 15.0-15.3m. January usually is a slow month after a more vigorous holiday season though rough weather in the second half of the month also probably delayed some purchases. * Ford had weaker than expected January vehicle sales. It saw a 5% YoY drop despite firm data from Asian OEMs. * Toyota Motor results contained no surprises; it continues to execute well compared to peers. The current CFO will take over as CEO. * Stellantis was the latest OEM to take writedowns on US EV assets, leading to negative margins for 2H. Downgrades, already likely, now seem a given and already largely priced in. Dividend suspension and planned hybrid issuance will cushion the impact.
Feb-06 20:36US IG REITs: Week in Review Our REIT coverage universe widened 1.2bps this past week, slightly better than the 1.3bps widening of the broader market index. We got one new issue from STORE but otherwise it was a busy week for earnings. 12 names in our coverage universe reported this week. Senior Housing continues to perform well, Residential was steady, Retail was in line and Tech/Telecom reported decent earnings though we continue to wait on CCI's asset sales. * Store Capital came with a new issue, printing $450m of 5Y note at +113, in line with our FV of +110. * SPG reported Q4'25 results that beat BBG consensus. Occupancy held steady with rent and retailer sales both higher. Guidance is for continued growth in FFO/sh. * DOC reported Q4'25 results that beat BBG consensus. Outpatient and Sr Housing still doing well but the Lab division continues to slide. Mngmt believes the latter has hit an inflection point and should improve going forward. Plans to IPO Sr Housing biz to unlock value * VTR reported Q4'25 results that beat BBG consensus mostly due to strength in Senior Housing (SHOP). Outlook is for very strong SHOP growth and developments/acquisitions in FY26. Liquidity remains strong and VTR should tap capital markets aggressively in FY26 * CDP reported Q4'25 results that marginally beat BBG consensus. Occupancy remains strong though retention was off temporarily due to timing issue with govt tenant. Gave strong guidance based on continued US DoD and govt spending. * EQR announced Q4'25 results that met BBG consensus. Occupancy and retention remains strong. NY and SF markets outperforming rest of company. EQR continues to remain active in acquisitions and disposals. Outlook is for continued growth in residential occupancy and revenues. * CCI released Q4'25 results that beat BBG consensus. In the process of selling fiber and small cell businesses to focus on cell towers. Expects to raise north of $8b from sales. Guidance for next year is for modest growth of core business but below analyst's estimates. * DLR reported Q4'25 results that beat BBG consensus. Renewal increases were strong and backlog remains healthy. Balance sheet stayed strong. Signaled more debt issuance for FY26 * We also had Q4'25 results from MAA (met consensus), REXR (met), AVB (slight miss), REG (met) and CPT (slight miss).
Feb-06 19:51US IG Consumer: Week in Review The Consumer/Retail segment slightly underperformed the broader market this week. The average spread in the market was wider by 1.3bps versus the 1.1bps widening in the broader index. One new deal came forward this week (MKC). We got earnings results in the Food/Commodities segment from TSN, INGR, ADM, BG, MDLZ and HSY - commodities and tariffs were topical. Other consumer names included CLX, EL and TPR. In auto retailing, we got results from ORLY and AN. RCL was upgraded. * McCormick (MKC) bought a 3Y $500m deal at +53bps that came 3bps wide to our fair value. * TSN reported Q1'26 results that Beat BBG consensus. Nice topline growth but margins and FCF both lower. Beef continues to be weak segment with negative margins. Expected to follow through into FY 2026. Debt reduction meaningful so leverage somewhat elevated but still reasonable. * INGR reported Q425 results that missed BBG consensus. Expect continued weakness in Q1 but rebound through rest of the year. Op income lower due to restructuring. Argo plant fire still causing disruptions and losses in the US/Canadian ops, impacting margins. * ADM and BG both reported Q4'25 results and expressed uncertainty surrounding trade policy, biodiesel govt policy and weak consumer demand all which negatively impacted results. * MDLZ and HSY reported Q4'25 results that both beat BBG consensus but cocoa prices and tariffs having an impact currently. * CLX reported Q2'26 beat on top line but missed on earnings. Weak consumer demand and higher logistics costs were partly to blame. * EL reported Q2'26 results that generally beat BBG consensus. Makeup weak due to product returns. Some weakness noted in Latam due to tariffs. Otherwise, margins showed improvement and mgnt was able to incrementally raise FY26 guidance. * TPR reported Q2'26 results that beat BBG consensus and raised guidance. Coach brand awareness among younger demo translated into holiday sales hitting all-time highs. DTC market important part of success with majority of sales in North America. Handbags still largest category. * ORLY and AN both reported Q4'25 results. ORLY expecting comp sales growth to continue. AN saw weakness in unit sales but made up some ground in After-Sales though unable to give detailed guidance. * RCL was upgraded to BBB from BBB- and left on stable by S&P. Now Baa3/BBB/BBB.
Feb-06 18:28AutoNation: 4Q25 Results (AN; Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) * Missed BBG consensus on topline but beat on earnings. Unit sales were lower but After-Sales and Finance made up for some shortfalls. FY free cash flow showed improvement That said, margins were lower on weaker sales and one-time adjustments. Gave little by way of guidance for FY26. * Credit neutral. Some uncertainty leading into FY26. Trades at fair value for low BBB retailer. * Total revenues were $6.93b, below BBG consensus of $7.19b and down 3.9% YOY. * New vehicle units down 10% and used down 5% YOY. Vehicle supply was at 45 days for new and 38 days for used vehicles. Some pull through occurred in Q3. Inventory stood at $3.4b, unchanged YOY. * After-Sales revenues were $1.2b, up 6% YOY and gross margin slightly improved * Adj operating income was $335m, down from $362m last year. Op margin was 4.8%, lower than last year's 5.0%. * Customer financial services gross profit up 8% YOY at $369m and AN Finance realized a small profit this year vs a loss the previous year. * EBITDA was $375m, lower than consensus of $393m * Adj Net Income of $186m was better than consensus of $177m * Adj EPS of $5.08/sh was ahead of consensus of $4.85/sh and above last year's $4.97/sh. * Reported leverage was 2.44x, in line with last year. * FY'25 adj free cash flow was $1.05b up from $750m last year, with an increase in financing activity and lower capex helping. * FY25 capex was $309m, down from $329m last year. Capital deployed was $1.6b. * Did not give specific guidance other than to say its expects stabilized unit profitability in new units, but some constraints on used car market. After-sales should continue its growth and Finance should s
Feb-06 13:41US Credit Bullets
US Credit Macro
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_With_Analysts_22448bf33a.pdf This update of our January 23 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 26 January 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: See You In March None of the 31 analysts' whose previews MNI read expected a Fed rate cut at the January FOMC meeting. * Statement: Most analysts saw the description of economic conditions as largely "marked to market" at the January meeting rather than changed substantively, with the description of "moderate" growth upgraded slightly. * More substantively, some analysts saw tweaks to the description of the balance of risks, potentially including the previous editions' note that risks to employment had risen in recent months. * There were almost no expectations that forward rate guidance would be changed but JPMorgan sees the removal of the word "additional" in the sentence "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate" * Dissents: All analysts who expressed an opinion said that it was likely/certain that Gov Miran would again dissent in a dovish direction. Several speculated he could be joined by Gov Bowman and/or Gov Waller, in descending order of probability, * Future action: The MNI analyst median for expected 2026 cuts is 50bp, with a range from zero to 125bp. * The median analyst still sees the next cut coming in March, though several pushed back their easing views to later in the year after the December nonfarm payrolls data released earlier this month. * Several analysts identified June as a logical point of resumption for rate cuts as it would/could reflect the first post-FOMC meeting with a new Fed Chair.
January 26, 2026 21:59Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_ffe579f7da.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The FOMC's January meeting appears poised to deliver a neutral hold, with heated debate continuing about the appropriate pace of easing over the coming year. * Divisions within the FOMC over the way forward are unlikely to have narrowed much since the December cut. The center of the Committee is likely to hold sway in maintaining an easing bias, albeit with no rush to make the next move now that rates have been brought down to within plausible estimated ranges of neutral policy. * If anything, the Committee may be even more patient now than it was 6 weeks ago. * Recent data have done little on net to affirm the case for another near-term cut, with the unemployment rate steadying and economic activity proving more resilient than expected. * With government shutdown-related distortions failing to clarify the overall picture, Chair Powell is likely to repeat his message from the December meeting that the FOMC is "well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves", with plenty of data to consider before the next decision in March. * The new Statement is likely to see only limited changes, but should acknowledge both reduced near-term concerns over the labor market as well as the above-expected economic activity since the last meeting. It will maintain the rather vague forward guidance adopted in December that the "extent and timing" of future easing will depend on the data. * That would likely be taken in stride by rate markets which price only around a 3% implied probability of a 4th consecutive 25bp cut, with the next easing expected only by July.
January 23, 2026 22:15Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
December 08, 2025 22:40The FOMC is unanimously expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bp at the October meeting, per 31 previews seen by MNI.
October 27, 2025 21:36
