Real time insight of US credit markets
US Banks: Week in Review Bank Sr Unsecured spreads overall tightened 2bps for the week, while Bank Subs tightened 3bps. Banks started reporting 4Q, with results overall showing growth led by capital markets and wealth and mid single digit loan and NII growth. The outlook includes repurchases and potential M&A as many banks manage down capital ratios on shifting regulatory capital requirements. Post-earnings new issuance from JPM, WFC, MS, GS received strong interest, with ~25-30bps compression from IPT. In the news, Trump's comments on credit card rate caps impacted card issuers like COF (#1 US card issuer post its DFS acquisition. Regional Banks Key news US Bancorp buying BTIG for up to $1B Credit neutral. USB like larger regionals have some investment banking business; this will enhance its scale and scope of services to institutional investors. Even though this is a bolt-on size deal, execution is key, and the risk here is tempered by the 2 companies' past collaborations. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/us-bancorp-buying-btig-for-up-to-dollar1b-1 768312434563 US Bank Shares Tumble as Trump Slams Credit Card Rates (1) -bbg https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/us-bank-shares-tumble-as-trump-slams-credit -card-rates-1-bbg-1768222010220 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/visa-mastercard-extend-losses-on-trumps-car d-swipe-fees-threat-1768323631455 Regional & Custody Bank earnings PNC 4Q25 Credit neutral. Strong quarter, beat consensus, with mid single digit NII and loan growth and healthy asset quality. Fee revenues up double digits, led by Capital Markets with Card/Cash Management and other services seeing steady growth. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/pnc-4q25-1768569433727 State Street 4Q25 (STT) Credit neutral. Good quarter on growth in servicing fees generated by its market- leading global custody business, though expenses up on big investments and move into digital assets could introduce potential risks. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/state-street-4q25-stt-1768583356509 M&T Bank Corp 4Q25 (MTB) Credit neutral. Stable modest loan growth to pick up 2026, credit quality healthy, loans to CRE ~17%, loans to NDFI ~9%. Continue to adjust CET1 down to target range, via buybacks. Buybacks for now, but CEO sees possible M&A down the road. (Baa1/BBB+/A) https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/mandt-bank-corp-4q25-mtb-1768574097839 Regions Financial 4Q25 (RF) Credit neutral, with NII and NIM rising while loans flat on managed runoff of leveraged loans, while general commitments projects modestly rising loan growth. Asset quality metrics healthy. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/regions-financial-4q25-rf-1768578592278 Issuance Goldman Sachs new deal priced within 0-3bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/goldman-sachs-dollarbenchmark-debt-offering -in-6-parts-fv-1768487956939 Morgan Stanley new deal came within up to 3bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/morgan-stanley-dollarbmark-debt-offering-in -4-parts-launch-1768497653916 Wells Fargo came within up to 15bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/wells-fargo-dollarbenchmark-debt-offering-i n-4-parts-fv-1768483898504 JP Morgan new deal priced within 1-2bps of FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jpmorgan-dollarbenchmark-6nc5-6nc5-frn-11nc 10-guidance-1768412671583 National Bank of Canada new 3NC2 priced at +63 slightly inside FV + 65a, now trading +59 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/national-bank-of-canada-dollarbenchmark-3nc 2-3nc2-frn-fv-1768233901523 JEF comes to market post earnings with new 10Y +143 vs our FV +145a https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jefferies-dollarbenchmark-10y-fv-1768316286 910 https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jefferies-4q25-jef-1767830184520 JPM's $6B 3-part new deal comes to market at no concession with 6NC5 at +63, 11NC10 at +76. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/jpmorgan-dollarbenchmark-6nc5-6nc5-frn-11nc 10-guidance-1768412671583 4Q25 Aviation Capital Group new 144A: long 3Y +83, 7Y +115, comes at 30+ tight to IPT. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/aviation-capital-group-dollarbmark-guidance -1768410906356 Bank of NY post-earnings new 4NC3 priced at +47 flat to our FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/bny-mellon-dollarbmark-fv-1768402749729 MassMutual FA-backed 3Y priced at +50 or 5 wide of our FV https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/massmutual-dollarbenchmark-fa-backed-3y-3y- frn-fv-1768403835616 Bank Sr Unsecured spreads:
January 16, 2026 21:19
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Despite the angst about consumer health and bank asset quality, Regional and other banks in the IG benchmark have reported largely benign consumer credit metrics relative to pre-pandemic norms of 2018/19. This has generated both relief and disbelief, given that consumers remain pressured by inflation and a slowing jobs market. We examine delinquency trends from consumer lenders including banks we cover, as well as the Federal Reserve's aggregated data from all commercial banks for a fuller picture. Although parts of the broader data reveal concerning trends, we find these are not in areas where investment-grade banks typically have exposure. Bond spreads for this group have mostly reflected this, generally performing in-line with the benchmark recently, even on days when the regional bank equity index was volatile. Bread Financial is a notable outlier, with the BHF 8.375 2035 subs rallying ~70bps QTD, despite delinquencies that having been edging above pre-pandemic levels. Likewise, ALLY 6.646 2040 subs have outperformed despite delinquencies that exceed prepandemic levels. Part I. The chart above shows credit card and other consumer delinquency rates by issuer. We've included nonbanks like OneMain Financial (OMF) and Bread Financial Holdings (BHF) to capture the nonprime segment. Delinquencies have been rising since the post-pandemic lows of 2021, but overall are still within 2018-19 pre-pandemic ranges. However, there are visible differences in the slope of rise, and at the high FICO end, American Express (AXP) delinquencies tracked the most muted rise, ending with a 3Q25 rate of 1.3% that's flat to 2018-19. Further down the FICO spectrum, Capital One (COF) and Synchrony (SYF) delinquencies spiked in 2024 to surpass 2018-19 levels by 10%+, but have since settled at 2018-19 levels of 3.85 and 4.4%. ALLY retail auto delinquencies saw a steeper rise, with its 3.93% about a quarter higher than pre-pandemic. Notably, this is the reverse of the Manheim used auto price index's ~25% decline from its 2022 peak. At the non-prime end of spectrum, OMF and BHF have seen the steepest delinquency rises with OMF's 5.55% now a third higher than pre-pandemic levels. Like our sample group, most Federal Reserve Category III-IV Regional banks have continued to report fairly benign consumer delinquencies. For a more comprehensive picture, though, we turn in Part II to the Federal Reserve's consumer delinquency data for all commercial banks. Part II. Here we look at card delinquency data that Federal Reserve aggregates from the commercial banks under its supervision to identify patterns in the broader universe. We start with this chart of 1Q1991 - 2Q2025 'Delinquency Rate on Credit Card loans- All Commercial Banks'. The broad group shows a pattern similar to that of the banks in Part I, with delinquencies rising from 2021 lows, but within 2018-19 range. It also looks benign compared to the full 20+ year range. This next chart excludes the top 100 banks. Delinquencies here are more volatile, with a steeper rise since 2021, and are approaching a 20+ year high. The banks in the Barclays investment-grade index are all are Federal Reserve Category I-IV banks and thus too large for this subset. For context, though, the top 5 card issuers ( JPM, AXP, Citi, Capital One, Bank of America) have a combined 2/3rds of US credit card market share. Lastly, we turn to overall consumer health by looking at debt service to income to assess consumer debt capacity. We find that the consumer is not any worse off than pre-pandemic periods though there are some risks that bear monitoring. Household Total debt service (ie, consumer + mortgage) to disposable income looks benign, stabilizing at levels modestly below pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment, however, has ticked up YTD to 4.4%, moderately exceeding the 3.6-4% range in 2018-19, and should labor markets continue weakening that would erode the modest buffer in household debt servicing. And recent changes in student loan payment policies could also pressure it. Part III. 4QTD Bond Spreads & Equity moves Bank spreads have mostly moved within +/- 10 bps, fairly in line with benchmark. Nonprime, high-yield lender spreads have moved more, unsurprisingly given their higher beta. We note that Bread Financial (BFH) has rallied disproportionately on recent rating upgrades and would be cautious given their exposure to riskier borrowers in a slowing economy. We also point out that ALLY spread compression seems unjustified given its delinquency rates are now 25%+ above 2018-19 levels.
December 10, 2025 13:55Overview of the BDC sector following quarterly reporting.
October 16, 2025 14:09US Credit Update
MNI US BDC/Alt Fins: Week in Review We saw two issuers this week - APODS 5Y and ATWALD 2Y and 7Y - both performed well in the secondary. We got a Q4 update from MAIN and Q4 positive earnings from BLK. * Apollo Debt Solutions issued $750m in 5Y at +195 off a +220 IPT. Bonds rallied 5bps in the secondary. Atlas Warehouse Lending issued a tap of their 4.625%'28 at +100 off a +125 IPT and a new 7Y at +135 off and IPT of +160. The tap rallied 7bps from issuance and the 7Y rallied as much as 5bps. * Main Street Capital Corp (MAIN) gave an update on NII/sh guidance that was higher than BBG consensus for Q4 results. MAIN reports on Feb 27. * BLK Q4'25 earnings were a mild positive as they beat BBG consensus. Revenues/fees were higher in part due to acquisitions. AUM was up more than expected due to strong inflows, with equities and ETFs leading the way. Unadjusted margin was lower on expenses related to the Global Infrastructure acquisition. See our post here. https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/blackrock-blk-q425-results-1768481582799 * Blue Owl Technology Fund (OTF) held investor calls late this week so look for a new issue from them next week. * No major earnings in the space expected next week.
Jan-16 21:31MNI BDC SECTOR REVIEW - Q3'25 Overview Each quarter, in addition to relative value and issuance charts, we choose key metrics across what are now 31 BDCs with publicly traded debt and try to discern any important trends for investors. We look at both quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year trends where relevant. We also include the data tables we rely upon to glean those trends. While aggregating the data, we do our best to use the same financial criteria across all BDCs. Please see the attached long form report that follows. Any and all comments welcome. MNI BDC Sector Overview Q32025.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_BDC_Sector_Overview_Q32025_df80d63329.pdf
Jan-16 19:29Main Street (MAIN) Preliminary Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2025 Operating Results (MAIN;NR/BBB-BBB-) {MAIN US Equity} Slight credit positive. * Estimates now for NII/sh $1.01-1.05/sh - higher than BBG consensus. * NAV/sh now expected at $33.29-$33.37/sh * Investments on nonaccrual at 1.0% (FV), down from 1.2% the previous quarter. * Total net new assets during the quarter of $361.9m
Jan-15 13:05Blackrock: Q4'25 Results (BLK; Aa3/AA-/NR) Slight credit positive. Beat BBG consensus estimates. Revenues/fees higher in part due to acquisitions. AUM up larger than expected due to strong inflows, with equities and ETFs leading the way. Unadjusted margin lower on expenses related to Global Infrastructure acquisition. * Total revenues were $7.00n, better than BBG consensus of $6.78b and up 23% YOY due in part to GIP and HPS acquisitions. * Net inflows during the quarter of $342b. FY25 inflows of $698b. Resulted in a Q4 12% organic fee increase and 9% yearly increase. * Americas flows accounted for 71%. APAC sales declined. * In terms of product areas, ETFs accounted for 68% of flows, Retail for 31% and Instl 1%. * By asset class Equity had $126b in inflows, Fixed Income had $84b, Multi-asset had $37b, Alts had $16b and Crncy/Commod had $5b. * AUM grew by 22% YOY to $14.04T. * Adjusted operating margin was 45.0%, down slightly from last year's 45.5%. Unadjusted operating margin was 23.7%, down from 36.6% last year. Some of the decrease was due to higher comp costs and charitable donations, but most was due to payouts related to the GIP acquisition. * Net Income of $2.18b was better than consensus of $2.06b and up 16% YOY. * Adj EPS of $13.16/sh was ahead of consensus of $12.28/sh and up 10% YOY. * BLK announced a 10% increase of its dividend to $5.73/sh
Jan-15 12:53US Credit Bullets
US Credit Macro
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
December 08, 2025 22:40The FOMC is unanimously expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bp at the October meeting, per 31 previews seen by MNI.
October 27, 2025 21:36The Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting.
October 24, 2025 21:05All but 2 analysts expect a 25bp cut at the September FOMC.
September 15, 2025 16:52
