US CREDIT UPDATE: US IG Consumer: Week in Review

RRP usage inches up to $4.582B with 8 counterparties this afternoon vs. $2.582B Tuesday. Compares to December 12 low of $0.838B (lowest level since mid-March 2021); this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

Having shown little impact from US tariff policy earlier in 2025, the NY Fed’s GSCPI has increased to its highest since 2023 (with higher indicating more acute supply chain pressures). It’s hard to pin this increase on a certain variable although we note that separate regional Fed manufacturing surveys pointed to their highest value for six-month ahead delivery times expectations since 2022.  

• The NY Fed’s GSCPI increased to +0.51 standard deviations above average in December after -0.17 in Nov, its first positive reading since July and the highest since Jan 2023.
• It’s still low by post-pandemic standards when it peaked at a huge 4.5 standard deviations above average in Dec 2021 and averaged 2.4 through Feb 2020 to Jan 2023, but is nevertheless a swift increase after little sign of reaction to tariffs under the second Trump administration.
• The relationship between this index and core goods ex used vehicles has broken down recently, with some solid ~0.3% M/M increases for the latter through Jun-Sep before a pullback to a surprisingly soft cumulative decline of -0.08% between Sep-Nov in last month’s highly unusual report.
• It’s hard to know the driver behind this quick increase in the index. It’s clearly not the Baltic Dry Index whilst its computation methodology covering various PMI releases makes it harder to estimate.
• We note that, whilst not included in the GSCPI, that an average of five regional Fed manufacturing surveys showed delivery time indexes sticking to recent ranges at 4.1 in Dec after 4.4 in Nov and 4.1 in Oct (diffusion index here) but six-month ahead expectations did increase 5pts to 8.4 for its highest since Mar 2022.
• One other technical factor to consider: "Due to the government shutdown, four datapoints are missing from the October and November revisions. These are the BLS Air Freight Indexes for Europe and Asia (inbound and outbound)."

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.1808 High Dec 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.1765 High Jan 2 
• PRICE: 1.1684 @ 15:16 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 1.1659 Low Jan 5 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1639 50.0% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 1.1615 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.1598 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg

A strong recovery from Monday’s low print in EURUSD highlights a potential reversal - the price pattern on Jan 5 is a bullish long legged doji candle, also known as a dragonfly doji. It is a bullish reversal pattern and highlights a key short-term support at 1.1659, the Jan 5 low. A stronger recovery would open 1.1808, the Dec 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 5.