MNI Fed Preview-October 2025: Analyst Outlook

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This update of our October 24 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 32

October 2025 FOMC Analyst Views: QT To End ASAP

The FOMC is unanimously expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bp at the October meeting, per 31 previews seen by MNI.

• Future action: Almost all analysts expect a follow-up cut in December, though some expect a “skip” at the meeting before resuming easing in 2026 (BofA, CIBC, RBC).
• Analysts’ views of total cuts from now through end-2026 range from 50bp to 175bp, with two analysts seeing no 2026 cuts (Deutsche, Jefferies). The median expectation is for 50bp of further cuts in 2025 and 50bp in 2026.
• Statement: There aren’t many expectations for meaningful changes to the October statement vs September’s, with the characterization of growth seen upgraded somewhat, but few to no changes to the description of inflation / labor market developments. The Statement may add language to acknowledge the limited flow of “official” data, but suggest that trends evident going into the prior meeting remain intact.
• No analyst expects the characterization of the balance of risks to be changed. Likewise, there are no core views that forward rate guidance will be changed - though JPMorgan cites risks the Statement could mention "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to hint an imminent end of the mini-easing cycle.
• QT: An immediate end to balance sheet runoff is now the consensus expectation for the October meeting. Some analysts expect a December announcement, but acknowledge risks it could happen this week.
• Dissents: Gov Miran is almost universally expected to dissent again in favor of a 50bp cut. Many analysts see potential for a hawkish dissent in favor of a hold, with KC Fed’s Schmid the most likely candidate.