MNI Fed Preview-January 2026: Analyst Outlook

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This update of our January 23 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 26

January 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: See You In March

None of the 31 analysts’ whose previews MNI read expected a Fed rate cut at the January FOMC meeting.

• Statement: Most analysts saw the description of economic conditions as largely “marked to market” at the January meeting rather than changed substantively, with the description of “moderate” growth upgraded slightly.
• More substantively, some analysts saw tweaks to the description of the balance of risks, potentially including the previous editions’ note that risks to employment had risen in recent months.
• There were almost no expectations that forward rate guidance would be changed but JPMorgan sees the removal of the word “additional” in the sentence “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate…”
• Dissents: All analysts who expressed an opinion said that it was likely/certain that Gov Miran would again dissent in a dovish direction. Several speculated he could be joined by Gov Bowman and/or Gov Waller, in descending order of probability,
• Future action: The MNI analyst median for expected 2026 cuts is 50bp, with a range from zero to 125bp.
• The median analyst still sees the next cut coming in March, though several pushed back their easing views to later in the year after the December nonfarm payrolls data released earlier this month.
• Several analysts identified June as a logical point of resumption for rate cuts as it would/could reflect the first post-FOMC meeting with a new Fed Chair.