MNI US OPEN - Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- NVIDIA FORECASTS DECELERATING GROWTH AFTER TWO-YEAR AI BOOM
- BOJ'S NAKAGAWA SEES GRADUAL HIKES; NO TIMING HINT
- MEXICO TO RAISE TARIFFS ON IMPORTS FROM CHINA AFTER US PUSH
- MNI EUROZONE INFLATION PREVIEW – CLEAR DOWNSIDE SURPRISE NEEDED FOR DOVISH TILT
Figure 1: Eurozone inflation momentum (on seas adj. 3M/3M basis)
NEWS
US (BBG): Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth After Two-Year AI Boom
Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable company, gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, signaling that growth is decelerating after a staggering two-year boom in artificial intelligence spending. Sales will be roughly $54 billion in the fiscal third quarter, which runs through October, the company said in a statement Wednesday. Though that was in line with the average Wall Street estimate, some analysts had projected more than $60 billion. The outlook adds to concern that the pace of investment in AI systems is unsustainable. Difficulties in China also have clouded Nvidia’s business.
US/CHINA (MNI): Beijing Confirms Top Trade Official Now in the U.S.
MNI (Beijing) China’s senior trade negotiator Li Chenggang has travelled to Washington this week for talks with U.S. officials, Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yongqian confirmed on Thursday. Li’s visit follows his trip to Canada on August 24–27, where he co-chaired the China-Canada Joint Economic and Trade Committee, He added. China remains willing to work with the U.S. to establish economic and trade consultation mechanisms and jointly safeguard bilateral economic relations, He continued.
US/JAPAN (BBG): Japan’s Akazawa Cancels US Trip Citing Administrative Talks
Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa canceled his US visit at the last minute on Thursday, due to issues that still need to be debated at the administrative level, according to the Cabinet Office. On Wednesday evening Akazawa had said he aimed to use the trip, which was set to begin Thursday morning, to press Washington to implement the lower tariffs agreed in July — including reduced duties on cars and auto parts. Even though both sides struck a deal in July, the US has yet to deliver what it promised to do.
BOJ (MNI): BOJ's Nakagawa Sees Gradual Hikes; No Timing Hint
Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa on Thursday backed a gradual rate hike but gave no guidance on the timing, citing high uncertainty. “Given the current level of real interest rates, if the outlook for activity and prices is realised, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust monetary accommodation,” Nakagawa told business leaders in Shimonoseki City.
BOJ (MNI EXCLUSIVE): Underlying Inflation Key for BOJ's Slow Hikes
MNI discusses the BOJ's hiking strategy ahead. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
JAPAN (BBG): Japan’s Two-Year Bond Sale Falters on Growing BOJ Rate Hike Risk
Japan’s two-year government bond auction on Thursday drew the weakest demand in 16 years, as investor caution lingered ahead of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan later this year. The sale had an immediate impact in the secondary market, with the two-year yield — sensitive to monetary policy — trimming a decline to trade at 0.86%. That’s just a few basis points below the highest since 2008.
ECB (BBG): Undermining Fed Independence Creates Big Risks, ECB’s Rehn Warns
The autonomy of the Federal Reserve is being tested for the first time in decades, leading to “significant” risks for markets and the economy, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn. “Ever since double-digit inflation was tamed in the 1980s, the Fed’s independence has been seen as an inviolable principle — now this principle is being undermined,” the Finnish official said Thursday in a speech. “When the central bank is trusted, people, companies, and financial markets believe it will stick to price stability. This trust anchors inflation expectations.”
EUROPE (BBG): Europe Car Sales Gain Most in 15 Months as Consumers Warm to EVs
Europe’s new-car market rose the most in 15 months in July, as consumers shrugged off concerns over the global economy to splash out on fully electric and hybrid models. Registrations climbed 5.9% last month from a year earlier — the steepest gain since April 2024 — to 1.09 million units, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said Thursday.
FRANCE (MNI): How Soon Could Legislative Elections Take Place?
In the likely event that PM Francois Bayrou's gov't is defeated in the 8 September confidence vote on his spending proposals, it is very uncertain whether a new gov't will be able to be formed. If President Emmanuel Macron restricts his options to the current governing coalition (the centrist Ensemble alliance and the conservative Les Republicains (LR)) there is no guarantee that an acceptable PM candidate will be found/forthcoming.
UK (The Times): Landlords Could Face National Insurance on Rental Income in Budget
The Treasury is considering a tax increase for landlords in an attempt to boost revenue by targeting “unearned income” in Rachel Reeves’s budget. Officials are examining proposals for applying national insurance (NI) to rental income in the hope of raising £2 billion. It has been pushed by some Labour MPs, government aides and an influential think tank to help fill a “black hole” of up to £40 billion in the public finances. Officials are drawing up options for tax rises in an attempt to avoid breaking the “red lines” set by Reeves before the general election not to put up VAT, income tax or national insurance.
UK (FT): Keir Starmer Plans Downing Street Shake-Up
Sir Keir Starmer is planning a shake-up of his Downing Street operation ahead of a critical autumn for his government, starting with the imminent departure of the top civil servant in his office. Nin Pandit, Starmer’s principal private secretary and a key member of his inner team, is to leave her post in September after only 10 months, as the prime minister attempts to tighten his grip on his government. Starmer is also expected to appoint a new economic adviser in Number 10 ahead of a crucial Budget later this autumn, and defuse potential political bombs. “That will happen soon,” said one official.
MEXICO/CHINA (BBG): Mexico to Raise Tariffs on Imports From China After US Push
The Mexican government plans to increase tariffs on China as part of its 2026 budget proposal next month, protecting the nation’s businesses from cheap imports and satisfying a longstanding demand of US President Donald Trump. The tariff hikes, expected for imports including cars, textiles and plastics, aim to shelter domestic manufacturers from subsidized Chinese competition, according to three people briefed on the matter, who asked not to be identified revealing details of the plans. Other Asian countries are also expected to face higher tariffs, one of the people said.
CHINA (BBG): China Banks Warn on Using Credit Cards to Fund Stock Trading
China’s commercial banks are tightening oversight of clients using credit cards to fund stock investments as small-time investors pour in to catch the nation’s $1 trillion market rally. Lenders including China Minsheng Banking Corp. and Huaxia Bank Co. warned over the past month that credit card funds and cash advances can’t be used for investments among other prohibited areas, according to statements seen by Bloomberg News. Any violations could lead to the transactions being canceled and to restrictions on card use, they said.
CHINA/N.KOREA (BBG): Kim Jong Un to Attend China’s Commemorations on Sept. 3: Xinhua
Kim Jong Un, top leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, will attend China’s Victory Day commemorations on Sept. 3, Xinhua News Agency reports.
UKRAINE (BBG): Ukraine Says It Hit Two Russian Oil Refineries Overnight
Ukraine said it hit two Russian oil refineries, after stepping up attacks on the country’s energy sector over the past month. The Kuibyshev refinery in Russia’s Samara region near the Volga River and the Afipsky refinery in the southern Krasnodar region were successfully targeted, according to the Telegram post on Thursday by Robert Brovdi, chief of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.
S.KOREA (BBG): Bank of Korea Holds for Now, Lays Ground for Rate Cut After Fed
The Bank of Korea paved the way for a possible interest rate cut after an expected move by the Federal Reserve next month while taking advantage of a modest uptick in the economy to hold borrowing costs steady for now. The central bank kept its seven-day repurchase rate at 2.5% on Thursday, a decision that aligned with the expectations of 22 of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The BOK said in a statement that it maintained its rate cut stance, but would hold rates for the time being as it monitors household debt risks and the impact of US tariffs.
PHILIPPINES (BBG): Philippines Cuts Key Rate Again as Inflation Stays Benign
The Philippines eased monetary policy for the third consecutive meeting this year, bringing the key interest rate to its lowest in nearly three years as inflation remained well below target. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reduced its overnight target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5% on Thursday, the lowest since November 2022. The move was expected by all 26 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
DATA
MNI EUROZONE INFLATION PREVIEW – AUGUST 2025: Clear Downside Surprise Needed for Dovish Tilt
The August Eurozone inflation round is split across two weeks, with the main prints of Spain, France, Italy, and Germany all scheduled for this Friday before the Netherlands and the Eurozone-wide figures follow next Tuesday. Analysts are looking for headline to pick up marginally to 2.1% Y/Y, while core inflation is expected to slow to 2.2%. Across categories, the main driver this time will be energy inflation base effects, putting upside pressure on headline. Analysts see the category around -1.6% Y/Y in August after -2.4% in July.
EUROZONE DATA (MNI): Bank Lending Steady Acceleration Trend Intact in July
Bank lending to households and non-financial corporations continued its trend of steadily accelerating growth in July. This trend has been driven by relative improvements in lending growth in southern country whilst German lending to NFCs for instance remains particularly tepid. M3 money growth appears to have plateaued for now at least.
SWITZERLAND DATA (MNI): Q2 Headline GDP Unrevised, Weaker Industry But Services Grow
- SWISS Q2 GDP +0.1% Q/Q, +1.2% Y/Y
Swiss Q2 growth came in in line with the flash release at 0.1% Q/Q on a sports-event and seasonally-adjusted basis, following Q1's 0.8%. "Industrial value added and exports declined sharply, whereas the services sector delivered broad based growth", SECO comments. We'd argue that from a monetary policy perspective, today's print should point away from an SNB cut into negative territory at the September meeting as per Chairman Schlegel's previous comments that the bar for such a move is high.
SWITZERLAND DATA (MNI): KOF Lower But Above May Levels Following 39% US Tariffs
- SWISS KOF AUG ECONOMIC BAROMETER 97.4 (VS 101.3 JUL)
The Swiss KOF index deteriorated more heavily than consensus expected but only to levels last seen in May in its first print incorporating the 39% tariffs levied by the US on Swiss imports. Specifically, the indicator came in at 97.4 in August (98.0 consensus, 101.3 July).
AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): July Inflation Rise Drives "Misery Index" to Highest Since Aug 2024
The substantial pickup in inflation in July drove a deterioration in the "misery index" to its highest in almost a year. If this is sustained then it could impact consumer confidence, but as the latter tends to be less volatile it is still too soon to tell. The 0.2pp improvement in underutilisation in July was offset by a 0.9pp increase in headline inflation to 2.8%. September Westpac consumer confidence prints on September 9.
NEW ZEALAND DATA (MNI): Labour Market May Be Stabilising
NZ filled jobs rose for the second straight month in July, which is a tentative sign of some stabilisation in the labour market but the increases remain slight. July was up 0.2% m/m after 0.1% but was still down 0.7% y/y but an improvement from June's -1.3% y/y and April's -2.0% y/y. Q3 labour market data is not out until 5 November and so August/September filled jobs will be monitored closely (29 Sep/28 Oct).
FOREX: USD Index Extends Consolidation Phase; Waller Speech in Sight
- The USD Index continues to hug the 50-dma, extending a broadly consolidative phase that has dominated across the second-half of August. Month-end flows may dominate for the rest of the week, and while most models indicate a neutral finish to the month for August, there remains risk of erratic flow and price action, particularly around the WMR Fix.
- French politics remains a key focus for markets, with French bond markets still sensitive to ongoing negotiations around Bayrou's plans for tax-and-spend and the goal of reducing the deficit in the coming years. A failed confidence vote looks more than likely on September 8th - which may lead to fresh legislative elections as soon as October.
- EUR/AUD remains a compelling chart - the rate has edged lower again Thursday, extending the pullback phase off mid-August's 1.8158. The price's approach to key potential inflection points is worth monitoring - Fibonacci retracement levels spanning the post-COVID range of 1.4285 - 1.9802 have remained highly relevant touchpoints for short-term inflection and reversal points in the cross. This year alone, 1.6392 (Feb'25), 1.7043 (Mar'25), 1.8500 (Apr'25) and 1.7694 (Jul'25) have come into play as key pivot points, marking the 38.2%, 50.0%, 76.4% and 61.8% retracements respectively.
- After a quiet Wednesday schedule, data releases pick up Thursday, with the secondary reading of US Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims data due. Pending home sales numbers for July are then set to follow.
- An after-market hours speech from Fed's Waller will likely garner focus given his status as one of the favourites to replace Jerome Powell as Fed President next year - he is set to be addressing an event in Miami on the topic of monetary policy, inflation and the Fed's outlook this year, with a full text release.
BONDS: Off Highs
Core global FI markets are back from early London highs, with little in the way of fresh fundamental developments noted since the open.
- Spill over from the late Wednesday rally in Tsys provided early support, before an extension of the move off lows in equity futures accelerated and applied weight to bonds.
- Bunds toped out at 129.90, with next resistance located at the August 14 located at 130.06. German yields are flat to 1.5bp higher, curve bear flattens.
- OATs outperform other EGBs given the aforementioned recovery in the wider risk backdrop (as opposed to any France-specific developments). We provided some deeper colour on the French political situation, potential election horizon and OAT spreads in a recent run of bullets.
- 5- to 10-Year BTP & CCTeu supply passed smoothly.
- Lower tier Eurozone confidence data failed to move the needle, with the same holding true for money supply readings.
- Comments from ECB’s Rehn failed to provide any actionable information. Dated OIS still price ~20bp of ECB easing through June ’26.
- Gilt futures have also faded from early session highs, with bears remaining in technical control. Initial resistance (91.24) still untested, initial support located at yesterday’s low (90.22). UK yields little changed across the curve.
- GBP STIRs consolidate around 10bp of further BoE easing through year-end.
- Secondary readings of Q2 U.S. GDP and the weekly jobless claims releases headline a limited macro calendar today.
EQUITIES: Bullish Trend Set-Up for Eurostoxx 50 Futures
The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 5375.55, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. S&P E-Minis bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6318.96, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 308.52 pts or +0.73% at 42828.79 and the TOPIX ended 20.04 pts higher or +0.65% at 3089.78.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 43.247 pts or +1.14% at 3843.597 and the HANG SENG ended 202.94 pts lower or -0.81% at 24998.82.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 45.81 pts or +0.19% at 24092.03, FTSE 100 lower by 28.33 pts or -0.31% at 9227.59, CAC 40 up 57.51 pts or +0.74% at 7801.44 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 18.7 pts or +0.35% at 5411.77.
- Dow Jones mini up 87 pts or +0.19% at 45731, S&P 500 mini up 3 pts or +0.05% at 6499, NASDAQ mini down 13 pts or -0.06% at 23616.5.
Time: 10:10 BST
COMMODITIES: Gold Holding Onto Recent Gains, M/T Trend Remains Bullish
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains still appear corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Gold is holding on to its most recent gains. The M/T trend condition remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. First key support to watch is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.5 or -0.78% at $63.65
- Natural Gas down $0 or 0% at $2.886
- Gold spot up $3.65 or +0.11% at $3401.34
- Copper down $0.55 or -0.12% at $449
- Silver up $0.33 or +0.84% at $38.9252
- Platinum up $4.47 or +0.33% at $1352.4
Time: 10:10 BST
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Current account |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP / PCE Quarterly |
| 28/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 28/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 28/08/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 28/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 28/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 28/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 28/08/2025 | 2200/1800 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 29/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | * |  JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 29/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 29/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | GDP |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 29/08/2025 | 0630/0730 |  GB | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 29/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** |  IT | GDP (f) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Cursos Europeos de Verano | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 29/08/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 29/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 29/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 29/08/2025 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 29/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
