EQUITIES: Bullish Trend Set-Up for Eurostoxx 50 Futures
The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 5375.55, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. S&P E-Minis bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6318.96, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 308.52 pts or +0.73% at 42828.79 and the TOPIX ended 20.04 pts higher or +0.65% at 3089.78.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 43.247 pts or +1.14% at 3843.597 and the HANG SENG ended 202.94 pts lower or -0.81% at 24998.82.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 45.81 pts or +0.19% at 24092.03, FTSE 100 lower by 28.33 pts or -0.31% at 9227.59, CAC 40 up 57.51 pts or +0.74% at 7801.44 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 18.7 pts or +0.35% at 5411.77.
- Dow Jones mini up 87 pts or +0.19% at 45731, S&P 500 mini up 3 pts or +0.05% at 6499, NASDAQ mini down 13 pts or -0.06% at 23616.5.
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: Another strong 3-year gilt auction
- Another strong 3-year gilt auction for the 4.375% Mar-28 gilt.
- The tail of 0.2bp was a little wider than the previous auction's 0.1bp but still very tight while the lowest accepted price (LAP) of 101.057 is higher than any other time of the day (excluding the first 10 minutes of trading).
- The price of the 4.375% Mar-28 gilt is still trading below that of the LAP at the time of writing but is moving higher. Gilt futures have shown little movement despite the strong result.
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt
| 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP5.00bln | GBP5.00bln |
| Avg yield | 3.941% | 3.847% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.71x | 3.46x |
| Tail | 0.2bp | 0.1bp |
| Avg price | 101.062 | 101.327 |
| Low price | 101.057 | 101.324 |
| Pre-auction mid | 101.039 | 101.311 |
| Previous date | 02-Jul-25 |
COMMODITIES: Short-Term Weakness for Gold Considered Technically Corrective
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.85. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3322.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the next key support at $3282.8, the Jul 9 low. Key short-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
- WTI Crude up $0.5 or +0.75% at $67.2
- Natural Gas up $0.06 or +1.91% at $3.051
- Gold spot up $11.37 or +0.34% at $3326.61
- Copper down $0.25 or -0.04% at $560.95
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.03% at $38.1658
- Platinum down $11.79 or -0.84% at $1385.61
