EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: USD BBDXY Index & 10yr Tsy Yield

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
BOE (MNI INTERVIEW): The Bank of England this month published rate paths for different economic scenarios after long internal debate but may struggle to keep delivering them until it updates its forecasting processes, former BOE economist and Oxford Professor Michael McMahon told MNI.
POLITICS (BBC): “Allies of the prime minister are making it clear he would fight any challenge to his leadership from Labour MPs. There are fears from those loyal to Sir Keir Starmer that his job might be under immediate threat, perhaps as soon as shortly after the Budget in a fortnight's time.”
INFLATION (TIMES): “The pace of grocery inflation slowed last month as supermarkets rolled out deeper discounts to attract shoppers ahead of Rachel Reeves’s budget. Grocery price inflation stood at 4.7 per cent in the four weeks to November 2, down from 5.2 per cent the previous month, as consumers bought more products on promotion, according to Worldpanel by Numerator.”
JOBS (BBG): "The weakness in the UK labor market is likely to have been overstated, economists and policymakers warned, after new figures shifted the narrative in Westminster and financial markets ahead of the budget."
EU
GERMANY (MNI BRIEF): Germany’s fiscal rules should be changed to ensure thE March reforms that facilitated short-term borrowing for defence and infrastructure investment do not lead to a deterioration of the public finance over the longer-term, or continue to be incompatible with EU rules, the country’s central bank said in a discussion paper published on Tuesday.
GERMANY (ECONOMIST): “The German Council of Economic Experts, a group of academics that advises the government on economic policy, will present its annual report on Wednesday. In May the council revised down its economic-growth forecast for this year: instead of weak growth it predicted stagnation. Its forthcoming report will assess the impact of increased defence and infrastructure spending on growth.”
EU/UK (POLITICO): “Brussels deadlocked over how to handle Brexit Britain. Talks will continue into Wednesday as member states remain divided over the question of U.K. payments into EU budget funds.”
US
FED (MNI POLICY): The Federal Reserve is set to restart asset purchases as soon as money market indicators and banks' liquidity management practices show reserves have transitioned to an ample level – expected within months. But in the meantime, the central bank is encouraging banks to tap its standing repo facility during bouts of illiquidity.
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The U.S. labor market will continue to soften and the Federal Reserve's 50 basis points of interest rate easing so far this year will not be enough to shore up hiring, private data provider Revelio Labs’ chief economist Lisa Simon told MNI.
FED (BBG): "Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said although artificial intelligence will transform economies, there are a range of outcomes as to how that will play out."
OTHER
AUSTRALIA (RTRS): “A top Australian central banker said on Wednesday that there was increasing debate about whether the current cash rate of 3.6% is restrictive enough to keep inflation in check, adding that the question is critical for the policy outlook.”
JAPAN (BBG): "Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a warning regarding currency movements as the yen weakened toward the key psychological threshold of 155 to the dollar."
OIL (BBG): "The International Energy Agency further tempered its stance on an imminent peak in oil demand, reinstating a scenario in which global consumption keeps growing to the middle of the century."
CHINA
INFLATION (MNI): Local analysts provide insight into China's 2026 CPI trends. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
YUAN (SECURITIES DAILY): "The yuan will remain stable with limited inverse fluctuations against the U.S. dollar, supported by economic fundamentals as timely strengthening of counter-cyclical adjustments will likely offset potential export weaknesses, Securities Daily reported citing Wang Qing, analyst with Golden Credit Rating."
GROWTH (SECURITIES DAILY): "The Chinese economy is expected to continue its steady growth trend in 2026, potentially setting an “around 5%” annual growth target, Securities Daily reported citing economists."
PROPERTY (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): "China’s banks are listing more properties online for sale this month to accelerate disposal of non-performing assets, according to a report in the Shanghai Securities News on Wednesday. "
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY130 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY195.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY130 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY65.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0833 Weds; +1.67% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.0833 on Wednesday, compared with 7.0866 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1148 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA Q3 NUMBER OF NEW HOME LOANS +6.4% Q/Q; Q2 +2.8%
AUSTRALIA Q3 NUMBER OF INVESTOR HOME LOANS+13.6% Q/Q; Q2 +5.9%
AUSTRALIA Q3 NUMBER OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOME LOANS +2.0% Q/Q; Q2 +0.9%
JAPAN OCT. M2 MONEY STOCK +1.6% Y/Y; SEP. +1.5%
JAPAN OCT. M3 MONEY STOCK +1.0% Y/Y; SEP. +1.0%
S.KOREA OCT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE S/ADJ 2.6%; EST. 2.6%; SEP. 2.5%
S.KOREA OCT EMPLOYED +193K Y/Y; SEP. +312K Y/Y
MARKETS
US TSYS: TYZ5 Nears Key Tech Level, Cash Yields Lower Across Curve
US treasury futures were mostly lower along with bond yields in a disjointed, post holiday market. The 10-Yr bond future TYZ5 is down -03 at 112-30, in touch with the 20-day EMA. A break lower could bring the 50-day EMA of 112-26+ into focus.

Cash's morning rally moderated somewhat in the afternoon, but remains a very strong day with bond yields lower across the curve.
FED speakers dominate tonight with Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins all speaking throughout Wednesday, whilst economic data remains on hold.
Investors will focus on the US$42bn 10-Yr issuance as the next guide for market demand, with markets remaining fixated on the US shutdown outcome.
JGBS: 5Y Richer Ahead Of Tomorrow's Supply, Long-End Cheaper
JGB futures are stronger and at session highs, +14 compared to settlement levels, on a data-light day.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer But AU-US 10Y Diff At Range Top Ahead Of Jobs Data
ACGBs (YM +1.5 & XM +2.0) are modestly stronger despite today’s much stronger-than-expected home loan data.

Bloomberg Finance LP
BONDS: Closed Slightly Richer But Underperforms $-Bloc
NZGBs closed 1bp richer across benchmarks.

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: Asia-Pac FX: USD Retraces ADP Losses
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1217.77 - 1219.65 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1219, +0.15%.The USD has retraced most of its move lower from overnight in reaction to a weaker ADP print. I am caught a little undecided on the USD at the moment, I liked the fade into 1230 initially but short term I expect dips back toward 1210-1215 to now be supported first up. We could chop around sideways for a while while the market decides which way to go. Above 1230 and we could start to break higher, below 1205 and the downtrends momentum could be re-engaged. Short-term while the 12221/22 area caps price my bias would be for a test toward the 1210-1215 support, above there and the market will look back toward the 1230 area once again.
Fig 1: EUR/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: FinMin Delivers Fresh FX Jawboning, But USD/JPY Pullback Limited So Far
USD/JPY tracks back near 154.60/65 in latest dealings. The pair hit earlier highs of 154.79, fresh highs since Feb of this year. Jawboning from FinMin Katayama has crossed a short while ago, which has helped temper the run higher in USD/JPY. Notably: "JAPAN FINMIN KATAYAMA: CLOSELY WATCHING FX MOVES WITH HIGH SENSE OF URGENCY, INCLUDING UNORDERLY, SPECULATIVE MOVES - [RTRS]"
AUD: Asia-Pac: AUD/USD Drifts Lower
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6520 - 0.6532 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6520, -0.10%. The AUD/USD has drifted sideways in our session consolidating its gains above 0.6500. The AUD will be one of the main beneficiaries while this positive sentiment dominates the market. The AUD/USD needs a sustained push above the 0.6550 area for the focus to turn back toward the 0.6650/0.6700 year highs. Look for intra-day dips toward 0.6480-0.6500 to be supported if this move higher is to come to fruition.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia-Pac: NZD/USD Drifts Back Toward 0.5650
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5648 - 0.5660 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5650, -0.10%. The NZD has given back most of its overnight gains. The NZD does stand out as a vehicle to express a short in but should this bout of improved risk sentiment grow it will be tough for the NZD to ignore it and it could play catch up to the move at some point, if you feel this bounce in risk will fail and move back lower then the NZD remains a great way to express that. I still suspect any decent bounce will again attract sellers though. The first sell area on a pullback would be around 0.5750 and then the more pivotal 0.5850 area. Dips on the day toward 0.5630-40 needs to hold for the short-term retracement to potentially extend, through here and the focus returns back to making new lows.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: KOSPI Up on Government Comments; Shenzhen Through Key Tech Level
In signs that consumer sentiment could be trending in the right direction, JD.Com said it's sales hit records during this year's singles days, with a 40% increase in shoppers during China's massive annual online shopping day. In Japan, SONY rallied for a second day after yesterday's results as several key brokers increased their price target, despite the NIKKEI falling as profit taking on tech stocks dominated. The KOSPI rose again as the President called for further incentives for long term investment in stocks by retail investors.

OIL: Crude Holds Most Of Tuesday’s Gains Ahead Of Key Reports
After rising around 1.5% on Tuesday, crude is slightly lower on Wednesday as the market waits for key information released later. WTI is down 0.3% to $60.84, holding above $60 through the session, while Brent is 0.3% lower at $64.99 after falling to $64.90. The USD index is up 0.1%.
GOLD: Pause In Latest Rally, Range Of Fed Speakers Later Today
Gold reached a high of $4145.50/oz early in today’s APAC session but was then pressured by the strengthening of the US dollar (BBDXY +0.1%) and higher US equity futures (S&P e-mini +0.1%) after several days of gains. Bullion is now down 0.4% to $4108.7, after an intraday low at $4103.75. The market is watching US developments closely with a vote in the House of Reps to end the government shutdown due on Wednesday. How the delayed data print will impact the outlook for the Fed.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 12/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | Germany CPI (f) | |
| 12/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | Germany CPI (f) | |
| 12/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | Industrial Production | |
| 12/11/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 12/11/2025 | 1045/1145 | ECB Schnabel Speech at BNP Paribas | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1140/1240 | ECB de Guindos at FIBI International Banking Conference | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 12/11/2025 | 1205/1205 | BOE Pill in Panel at International Monetary Research Conference | ||
| 12/11/2025 | - | *** | Money Supply | |
| 12/11/2025 | - | *** | New Loans | |
| 12/11/2025 | - | *** | Social Financing | |
| 12/11/2025 | - | ECB Lagarde, Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting in Brussels | ||
| 12/11/2025 | - | BOE MPG Meeting | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | Building Permits | |
| 12/11/2025 | 1420/0920 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | Philly Fed's Anna Paulson | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1505/1005 | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1520/1020 | Fed Governor Chris Waller | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1730/1230 | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result | |
| 12/11/2025 | 1830/1330 | Bank of Canada meeting minutes | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 2050/1550 | New York Fed's Roberto Perli | ||
| 12/11/2025 | 2100/1600 | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | ||
| 13/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | Labor Force Survey | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | UK Monthly GDP | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | Final Inflation Report | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | Index of Services | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | Index of Production | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | Output in the Construction Industry | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GDP First Estimate | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | Final Inflation Report | |
| 13/11/2025 | 0730/0730 | BOE MPG Minutes Released | ||
| 13/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | Productivity Flash Estimates | ||
| 13/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ Industrial Production | |
| 13/11/2025 | 1200/1200 | BOE Greene in Panel on Central Bank Independence | ||
| 13/11/2025 | - | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting in Brussels | ||
| 13/11/2025 | 1300/1400 | ECB Elderson Moderates Climate and Banks Panel | ||
| 13/11/2025 | 1300/0800 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | ||
| 13/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 13/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 13/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 13/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 13/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CPI |