JPY: FinMin Delivers Fresh FX Jawboning, But USD/JPY Pullback Limited So Far
USD/JPY tracks back near 154.60/65 in latest dealings. The pair hit earlier highs of 154.79, fresh highs since Feb of this year. Jawboning from FinMin Katayama has crossed a short while ago, which has helped temper the run higher in USD/JPY. Notably: "JAPAN FINMIN KATAYAMA: CLOSELY WATCHING FX MOVES WITH HIGH SENSE OF URGENCY, INCLUDING UNORDERLY, SPECULATIVE MOVES - [RTRS]"
- Katayama also stated that the disadvantages of a weaker yen are outweighing the advantages. This may be edging us closer to intervention risks, although remarks like, “We can’t tolerate speculative moves.” “We will take appropriate action if needed.” don't appear to be part of the verbal rhetoric yet. So far USD/JPY has been supported sub 154.60 on this pullback.
- Perhaps limiting USD/JPY downside so far has also been remarks from PM Takaichi, who again stated that Japan has not yet emerged from deflation and that she hopes the BoJ conducts policy which achieves the price target sustainably (i.e via wage growth).
- At face value these comments are again pushing back on fresh BoJ tightening in the near term.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6705.18/6812.25 20-day EMA / High Sep 9
- PRICE: 6679.50 @ 06:15 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 6598.55 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Sep 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
- SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2
A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Friday is - for now - considered corrective. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6598.55. Friday’s low of 6940.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Sep 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 13-Oct | 1205 | --- | BOE Greene at Society of Professional Economists |
| 13-Oct | 2010 | --- | BOE Mann in MonPol Panel |
| 14-Oct | 0001 | Sep | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 14-Oct | 0700 | Aug/Sep | Labour Market Report |
| 14-Oct | 1300 | BOE Taylor Fireside Chat at University of Cambridge | |
| 14-Oct | 1800 | --- | BOE Bailey at Institute of International Finance |
| 15-Oct | 0900 | --- | BOE Ramsden Panel at Resolution Mechanism Conference |
| 15-Oct | 1645 | --- | BOE Breeden in Panel on Financial Regulation |
| 15-Oct | 1900 | --- | BOE Breeden in Panel at Fintech Foundation |
| 16-Oct | 0700 | Aug | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 16-Oct | 0930 | Q3 | BOE Credit Conditions Survey |
| 16-Oct | 1400 | --- | BOE Mann in Panel on MonPol and Trade Shocks |
| 16-Oct | 1545 | --- | BOE Mann in MonPol Panel at IMF/World Bank Meetings |
| 16-Oct | 1930 | --- | BOE Greene in Panel on UK/EU Relations |
| 17-Oct | 1035 | --- | BOE Pill Speech at Institute of Chartered Accountants |
| 17-Oct | 1200 | --- | BOE Greene Roundtable at Atlantic Council |
| 17-Oct | 1730 | --- | BOE Breeden in Panel at IMF/World Bank Meetings |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Oct | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at IMF/World Bank Meetings |
| 14-Oct | 0700 | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 14-Oct | 0850 | EU | ECB Cipollone Speech on Digital Euro |
| 14-Oct | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 14-Oct | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at G20 Meeting |
| 15-Oct | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Oct | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Oct | 0840 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Resolution Mechanism Conference |
| 15-Oct | 1000 | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 15-Oct | 1900 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Alantra Anniversary Event |
| 16-Oct | 0900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Oct | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16-Oct | 1000 | IT | Foreign Trade |
| 16-Oct | 1645 | EU | ECB Lane in Policy Panel at IIF Annual Meeting |
| 16-Oct | 1700 | EU | ECB Lagarde in IMF Policy Debate |
| 17-Oct | 1000 | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 18-Oct | 1230 | EU | ECB Cipollone Speech at Euro50Group Meeting |
| 18-Oct | 1400 | EU | ECB Lagarde in Economic Outlook Panel at G30 |
