MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Risk Turns Lower Ahead Of US CPI
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- AI-DRIVEN PRODUCTIVITY BOOM WILL NOT SUPPORT LOOSER MONETARY POLICY – BOE HASKEL – MNI
- NORGES BANK HEAD SAYS INFLATION TOO HIGH – MNI
- FED MIRAN SAYS THE BIGGEST RISK TO US GROWTH IS THAT INTEREST RATES NEED TO BE LOWER – MNI
- TAYLOR ELECTED LEADER BY THE LIBERAL PARTY IN A STRONG VICTORY IN FRIDAY’S BALLOT – BBG
- RBNZ TO HOLD, HIKES NOT LIKELY UNTIL H2 (FORMER OFFICIALS) - MNI
Fig 1: Policy Paths Expected To Diverge Across $-Bloc
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
UK
BOE (MNI INTERVIEW): AI Boom Doesn't Justify Lower Rates - Haskel: An AI-driven productivity boom will not provide support for looser monetary policy, because central banks models assume forward-looking consumers will increase consumption in anticipation of greater wealth, former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member and professor at Imperial College Jonathan Haskel, told MNI.
BOE (MNI INTERVIEW): BOE Can Look Through Starmer's Woes - Saunders: Only a large move in sterling or gilts in reaction to a change in the UK’s political leadership would affect Bank of England policy, former BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Saunders told MNI, playing down speculation that uncertainty over the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer would necessarily hit business and consumer confidence.
POLITICS (BBG): "The UK’s top civil servant quit his post after just 14 months, adding to the churn in Keir Starmer’s government that had already seen him lose two of his most senior aides this week."
EU
NORGES BANK (MNI BRIEF): Norges Bank Head Says Inflation Too High: The simple reason that the Norwegian central bank has not cut its policy rate as fast as other advanced economy central banks is "that inflation is still too high" and noted that it has been around 3 per cent since the Autumn with the January outturn higher than expected, Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache said Thursday.
UKRAINE (BBG): "Ukraine’s state-run oil and gas company Naftogaz Group is seeking funds to restore and renovate its facilities after the destruction caused by constant Russian attacks, said its top executive."
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): Miran Says Fed Is Biggest Risk To U.S. Growth: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Thursday the biggest risk to growth in the United States is the Fed and interest rates need to be lower, additionally because there is a role for the central bank to help reduce pockets of slack that remain in the labor market.
FED (MNI BRIEF): : Politicised Fed Could Affect ECB Policy - Nagel: A politically partisan U.S. Federal Reserve could not only undermine the principle of central bank independence globally, it could have monetary policy implications for the European Central Bank, Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said in a speech on Thursday.
FED (MNI): Fed Likely To Reduce Purchases After Mid-April - Remache: The Federal Reserve will continue its balance-sheet expansion with USD40 billion of securities purchases per month until mid-April, when it will likely be reduced substantially, the central bank's deputy SOMA manager, Julie Remache, said Thursday.
TARIFFS (FT/BBG): "Trump administration is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods, the Financial Times reports."
JAPAN
BOJ (MNI BRIEF): BOJ's Tamura See Higher Rate; No Timeframe: The Bank of Japan will continue raising policy interest rates to adjust the degree of monetary easing, said Board Member Naoki Tamura Friday, without committing to a specific timeframe.He added that inflation appears to be becoming more “endogenous and sticky,” reflecting the Bank’s targeted mechanism in which wages and prices rise interactively.
TRADE (BBG): “The US and Japan remain far apart over which projects should be funded first under a $550 billion investment vehicle, according to Japanese Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa. Akazawa met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to discuss establishing the initial projects, but didn't announce any projects or elaborate on the details of the private discussion.”
OTHER
CANADA (MNI INTERVIEW): Canadians Dodge Mortgage Woes With Longer Loans: Canadians living in one of the world's frothiest housing markets are extending the length of their mortgages to avoid failing to pay monthly bills as higher interest rates and inflation boost their expenses, a senior economist at the federal housing agency told MNI.
AUSTRALIA (BBG): “Angus Taylor faces a byelection test in the NSW seat of Farrer after wresting leadership from Sussan Ley. One Nation will run a "strong candidate" in Farrer, and other parties including the Liberals, Nationals, and teals are also expected to contest. Taylor was entrusted by colleagues to salvage the Liberal Party with a strong victory in Friday's leadership ballot, beating Ley by 34 votes to 17.
NZ (MNI): RBNZ To Hold, Hikes Not Likely Until H2 -Former Officials: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to hold its official cash rate at 2.25% next week, with any increases unlikely until later in the year absent a significant shift in core inflation, former officials told MNI.
CHINA
PBOC (BBG): "PBOC’s Rising Focus on Overnight Rate Spurs Talk of Policy Shift: The Chinese central bank's focus on the overnight money market rate is fueling speculation that it may adopt this tenor as its primary policy target. The People's Bank of China has re-ordered its monthly report to prioritize money market conditions and added an analysis of interest-rate levels of pledged bond repurchases."
POLICY (BBG): "China Economists Urge Looser Capital Controls as Dollar Dips: Several prominent Chinese economists have called for loosening restrictions on the movement of money in and out of the country to boost the yuan's global appeal. They argue that a weaker dollar and the yuan's appreciation provide a favorable environment for increasing the yuan's convertibility and opening up the capital account."
PRESS (MNI): Digest Feb 13: Yuan, Holidays, Trade Platform: The yuan is expected to remain relatively strong around the holiday period as China’s exports maintain robust growth and corporate foreign-exchange settlement demand continues to be released, said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating International.
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY113.5 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY145 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY113.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY31.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
- The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4097% at 09:31 am local time from the close of 1.5257% on Thursday.
- The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 51 on Thursday, compared with the close of 49 on Wednesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 6.9398 Fri; +5.56% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.9398 on Friday, compared with 6.9457 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 6.9069 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND JAN MANF PMI 55.2; 56.1 PRIOR
NEW ZEALAND DEC NET MIGRATION 2870; 1560 PRIOR REVISED
JAPAN FEB 6 BUY FOREIGN BONDS; Y365.7B; Y713.7B PRIOR
JAPAN FEB 6 BUY FOREIGN STOCKS; Y162.7B; Y454.6B PRIOR
JAPAN FEB 6 FOREIGN BUY JAPAN BONDS; -Y464.1B; Y2081.1B PRIOR
JAPAN FEB 6 FOREIGN BUY JAPAN STOCKS; Y543.2B; Y494.6B PRIOR
CHINA JAN NEW HOUSE PRICES -0.37%; -0.37% PRIOR
CHINA JAN USED HOUSE PRICES -0.54%; -0.70% PRIOR
SOUTH KOREA JAN EXPORT PRICE YOY 7.8%; 5.0% PRIOR REVISED
SOUTH KOREA JAN IMPORT PRICE YOY -1.2%; 0.5% PRIOR REVISED
MARKETS
US TSYS: Risks Build for Higher CPI
For the bond market, the next filter to assess the future path of interest rates by is Friday's CPI. According to our US team, consensus is for a modest pick up in core prices MoM helped by a typical start of year price reset and normalization of activity since the government shutdown.
Treasuries have shown their willingness to rally with most maturities approaching Friday near to weekly lows in yield, thereby making CPI a critical test.
Cash is weak in Asia today with yields up +1-1.5bps across the curve.
- The 2-Yr is up +1.2bps at 3.47% : lower by -3.1bps for the week.
- The 5-Yr is up +1.2bps at 3.673%: lower by -8.7bps for the week.
- The 10-Yr is up +1.3bps at 4.113%: lower by -8.6bps for the week.
- The 30-Yr is up +1.3bps at 4.749%: lower by -10.2bps for the week.
The US 10-Yr future has fallen -01 today to 112-24+ on reasonably high volumes, suggesting good two way flow.
The risks now are to a higher CPI. Yields have moved considerably lower over the week and if our US team are correct and and there is an acceleration in prices, yields could give back much of those gains Friday.
JGBS: Early Risk-Off Induced Gains Pared Ahead Of US CPI
JGB futures are stronger, +9 compared to settlement levels, but hovering just above session cheaps.
- MNI BRIEF: BOJ's Tamura See Higher Rate; No Timeframe: The Bank of Japan will continue raising policy interest rates to adjust the degree of monetary easing, said Board Member Naoki Tamura Friday, without committing to a specific timeframe. He added that inflation appears to be becoming more “endogenous and sticky,” reflecting the Bank’s targeted mechanism in which wages and prices rise interactively.
- "Japanese government bonds are largely shrugging off the latest remarks from central bank board member Naoki Tamura as those of a hawk, but they are eventually vulnerable to losses as his comments -- especially around the neutral rate -- underscore how far the policy rate may have to rise in this cycle." - BBG
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's risk-off induced rally. Focus is on the release of US CPI data later today.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened across benchmarks, with yields 1bp lower (5-10-year zone) to 2bps higher (30-year).
- Swap rates are 1-4bps higher, with a steeper curve.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Q4 (P) GDP alongside Industrial Production (Dec F) and Capacity Utilization (Dec).
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer But Off Bests Ahead Of US CPI Data, Curve Flattens Further
ACGBs (YM +5.5 & XM +6.5) are stronger but off session bests.
- Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session. Focus is on the release of US CPI data later today.
- “Angus Taylor faces a byelection test in the NSW seat of Farrer after wresting leadership from Sussan Ley. One Nation will run a "strong candidate" in Farrer, and other parties including the Liberals, Nationals, and teals are also expected to contest. Taylor was entrusted by colleagues to salvage the Liberal Party with a strong victory in Friday's leadership ballot, beating Ley by 34 votes to 17.” - BBG
- Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +64bps.
- Cash 3/10 curve flattens to lowest since end-2024.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing shows tightening across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 16% for March to 93% by June and 148% by December 2026.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty ahead of RBA Minutes of Feb. Policy Meeting on Tuesday.
- Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 October 2036 bond on Wednesday and A$800mn of the 3.25% 21 April 2029 bond on Friday.
Bloomberg Finance LP
BONDS: NZGBS: Richer With A Flatter Swap Curve After Higher Infl Expns
NZGBs closed 4-5bps richer across benchmarks, albeit slightly off session bests.
- NZ 2yr ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.37% (for the Q1 print) from 2.28% prior. This was the highest since Q1 2024 for the print. The trough in 2yr ahead inflation expectations was near 2.0% in the second half of 2024, and we remain well off end 2022 highs of 3.62%.
- 1yr ahead inflation expectations posted a firmer rise to 2.59% from 2.39%, but likewise remain well off end 2022 highs (just above 5.0%). The data point to an edging up in inflation expectations, but not a pace that is likely to alarm the RBNZ around the need to shift rates higher in the near term (the RBNZ meets next Wed, Feb 18).
- Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's risk-off induced rally. Focus is on the release of US CPI data later today.
- NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials finished ~1bp wider.
- Swap rates closed 2-4bps lower, with a flatter 2s10s curve and wider implied swap spreads.
- RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. No tightening is priced for February, while December 2026 assigns 42bps.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index and Card Spending data.
Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: USD - BBDXY Trying To Bounce Off 1180
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1181.81 - 1183.05 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1182. The USD continues to hold above 1178-1180 and with risk turning lower it is attempting to move higher. We have seen this movie before with respect to a potential correction in risk and recency bias tends to dismiss it evolving into anything more. The market is very bearish the USD and if we should get some form of a deeper correction in risk and the USD finds demand as a hedge, the market is not positioned for this. Most shorts will be eagerly awaiting the potential ruling by the Supreme court on the Tariffs next week, 20 February. On the day, the first resistance is toward the 1185-1187 area and then 1195 where I suspect we could see sellers return. A sustained break below 1175-1180 is needed to potentially signal the start of another leg lower targeting 1150 first and then potentially 1115.
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1863-1.1873, Asia is currently trading 1.1870. The pair traded sideways below 1.1900 albeit with a heavy tone. Price action remains constructive, can it build a base above 1.1800 and then find the momentum to push on? On the day, the first support is back toward 1.1820-1.1850 and then the 1.1750 area. A sustained move back above 1.1925-1.1940 is needed to give it the thrust it needs to have another look toward the 1.2000 area. Quite a lot of optionality is expiring in the 1.1800-1.1850 area today.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3612-1.3627, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3620. The pair is trading pretty poorly considering how weak the USD has been. GBP continues to look like 1.3580-1.3730 to me for now as we wait to see how the big USD trades as risk stumbles, could CPI today give it the nudge it needs ?
- Cross asset : SPX -0.05%, Gold $4975, US 10-Year 4.11%, BBDXY 1182, Crude Oil $62.75
- Data/Events : Germany Wholesale Price Index, Spain CPI, EZ GDP/Trade Balance/Employment
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: USD/JPY - Chops Around 153.00 As Longs Continue To Be Pared Back
The USD/JPY range today has been 152.67-153.35 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 152.95, -0.15%. USD/JPY continues to be faded on any bounces as risk has turned lower. The headwinds for Yen shorts are growing and squeezing out the leveraged funds. This price action does look messy but I still believe dips back toward the 149-152 will probably provide solid support again should we see it, until then it looks like we chop around albeit with a heavy tone. On the day, the first resistance is back towards 153.25-153.75 and then 154.50-155.00 area as the market pares back its overextended USD longs and looks for another base to form from which to potentially move higher again.
- "BOJ BOARD MEMBER TAMURA: PERSONALLY FEEL JAPAN'S RECENT INFLATION IS BECOMING STICKY, TO KEEP RAISING RATES IF OUTLOOK IS MET” - BBG (tamura sits on the hawkish side)
- "BOJ'S TAMURA: I HAVE SAID NEUTRAL RATE IS AT LEAST AROUND 1%" - BBG
- MNI AU - Honda- BoJ Board Spots Don't Need To Be Filled With Reflationists - Rtrs: Honda states that there is scope for the BoJ to raise rates this year, but the next move is unlikely to come in March. Via Rtrs: "While acknowledging the chance of another rate hike this year, Honda said the BOJ will likely avoid raising rates in March as it needs to scrutinise the impact of its hike in December.". March BoJ hike odds, per OIS pricing, look a touch lower, but haven't got above 30% in recent sessions
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 152.00($1.78b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 149.60($869m Feb 17), 151.00($986m Feb 17),156.00($1.87b Feb 17) - BBG.
- The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 161 Points
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD/USD - Drifts Below 0.7100 As Risk Wobbles Into US CPI
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.7081 - 0.7097 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.7088. The AUD move higher finally stalled toward 0.7150 as we had a “traditional risk-off” session in New York as stocks got sold, treasuries bought and the USD drifted higher. The AUD fell back below 0.7100 pretty easily and the bulls will be hoping for risk to firm up as they will be vulnerable if it builds into anything more than a pullback. The AUD has been outperforming across the board as leveraged funds continue to add to their longs as further hikes are potentially priced in. On the day, the first support is back toward 0.7035–0.7065, a break below here could signal a deeper pullback as the 0.7100-0.7200 continues to cap the move higher. The US CPI tonight will be closely watched and could add to the headwinds already building for risk.
- Bloomberg - “Australians’ Spending Set to Slow as Rate Hikes Bite, CBA Warns. “While consumers have continued to spend, higher interest rates and easing income growth are likely to slow that momentum as the year progresses,” CBA said in the report.”
- MNI BRIEF: Miran Says Fed Is Biggest Risk To U.S. Growth. "I think it's us," Miran said in Q&A at a Dallas Fed event, when asked about the biggest risk to growth. "The biggest risk I think to the economy is that we're misconstruing just how tight monetary policy is."
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6800(AUD1.55b), 0.6825(AUD791m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6980(AUD644m Feb 18) - BBG
- The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 78 Points
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD/USD - Drifts Back Towards 0.6000 As Risk Turns Lower
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.6028-0.6040 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6032. The NZD has again failed back toward the 0.6100 area as risk topped out again last night and the USD pulled back. We have seen this movie before so the question is whether risk actually breaks down and we get a decent correction or are the dips once again supported and we continue to chop sideways. Recency bias suggests the latter but there does seem to be some trouble brewing under the hood. On the day, the first support is back toward 0.5985-0.6015 a break below here could signal a deeper pullback toward 0.5900. For now the 0.6100 area continues to cap but the bulls will be hoping for risk to firm up to have another go.
- MNI AU - PMI Off Dec Highs But Still Pointing To Firm Growth Outlook: The BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI eased slightly in Jan, but maintained the bulk of the improvement we saw late last year. We printed at 55.2, versus 56.1 in Dec (the 56.1 read was the highest print since late 2021). The Jan outcome is still pointing to supportive cyclical conditions. The sub indices moved off Dec highs, with new orders at 56.4, versus 59.9 prior. The employment index printed at 52.9 (versus 53.7 prior), but we are above 2025 lows.
- MNI AU - NZ Inflation Expectations Edge Up But From Low Levels: New Zealand 2yr ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.37% (for the Q1 print) from 2.28% prior. This is back to Q1 2024 highs for the print, but the trend rise has been very modest over this period. The trough in 2yr ahead inflation expectations was near 2.0% in the second half of 2024, and we remain well off end 2022 highs of 3.62%. 1yr ahead inflation expectations posted a firmer rise to 2.59% from 2.39%, but likewise remain well off end 2022 highs (just above 5.0%). The data points to an edging up in inflation expectations, but not a pace that is likely to alarm the RBNZ around the need to shift rates higher in the near term.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5700(NZD400m Feb18), 0.6050(NZD395m Feb 16), 0.6200(NZD430m Feb 16) - BBG
- The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 57 Points
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: Asia's Chip Surge Collides with US Tech Tremors
Major Asian equity markets fell today as a global sell-off in technology shares triggered by concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) valuations, dampened risk appetite. A sharp overnight slide in U.S. tech shares—specifically the Nasdaq falling 2%—spilled over into Asia. Investors are reassessing high AI-linked valuations following disappointing margin outlooks from major tech firms like Cisco, which cited surging memory chip costs. Despite the daily losses, many regional benchmarks are on track to end the week with significant gains, supported by recent strong corporate earnings and massive AI-related capital expenditure plans.
After a spectacular start to the week following a decisive election victory for the LDP, the NIKKEI closed Tuesday at fresh highs of 57,650. Nearing the end of the week it is at 57,256 around -0.70% lower. Major tech company Softbank fell heavily Friday by -7.7% yet remains higher on the week following earlier gains.
As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches and following strong gains to start the week, China's major bourses are down -0.80-1.80% Friday whilst holding onto gains of +1.8% for tech heavy Shenzhen.
The KOSPI is the outlier today posting gains of +1% and +9.6% for the week with Samsung Electronics up over +13% as the company announced it had commenced mass production and shipment of sixth-generation High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) chips, critical for next-generation AI accelerators.
The tech sell off has erased gains at the start of the week for the NIFTY 50 as it now faces its third week out of four of losses; down -0.54% currently.
Oil Set for Weekly Loss as US Iran Tensions Moderate
- Oil prices slipped marginally in the Asia trading day and are set to finish down for the week as immediate US Iran concerns moderate.
- Following meetings with Israel's President Netanyahu this week, US President Trump suggested that negotiations with Tehran could last as long as a month, but cautioned that failure to reach an agreement could be 'very traumatic' for Iran.
- The weak is ending on a softer note for investor sentiment, dragging equities and oil with it. WTI is down modestly today and -1.2% for the week at US$62.75 bbl having traded in a tight range of $62.39 - $65.83
- WTI is currently near its downside resistance via the merged 20-day / 200-day EMA at $62.70. A break below sees resistance via the 50-day EMA of $61.11
- Brent is down just -0.07% today at US$67.47 bbl, and down -0.85% for the week. Brent has traded in a relatively narrow range of $67.02 - $70.72 over the last 5 trading days.
- For both WTI and Brent at present, momentum indicators are broadly neutral.
- US Energy Secretary said that energy companies who lost billions when Venezuela nationalized the oil industry in the 70s. Secretary Wright said on BBG TV that “They are in active discussions with ConocoPhillips — the people that lost assets in the before, are all in active dialog right now to recoup losses.”
- In the short term oil markets will likely return focus back to the issue of oversupply until further news breaks on US Iran discussions.
- Most forecasters see oil finishing lower by year end once geopolitical tension with Iran subside.
Gold Up; Remains Below $5,000 Awaiting US CPI
- During the Asian trading day today gold prices have staged a moderate rebound, climbing +1.2% to US$4,985. This follows a dramatic sell-off on Thursday where the precious metal plunged more than 3%, crashing below the psychologically significant $5,000 per ounce mark to a near one-week low. Market commentators were left scratching their heads as to the driver of Thursday's sell off, with the reality likely that the ripples of the late January falls are still being felt.
- Gold is holding on to weekly gains of just +0.3% as investors wait for the January CPI report in the US later, looking for clues as to the future direction for interest rates. The bullish case for gold in the near term hinges on a weak US CPI bringing rate cuts into play whilst a stronger CPI takes them off the table.
- The current market sentiment remains cautious and likely supported by dip buyers today as bullion holds above the $4,900 support level. Some momentum indicators point a different picture with the MACD (white) line below the Signal (red) line - a bearish sign for prices.
- Geopolitical tensions have taken a backseat in recent days with fresh news from US Iran talks limited with any spike in tensions likely to remain supportive for gold prices.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | * |  DE | Wholesale Prices |
| 13/02/2026 | 0730/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 13/02/2026 | 0800/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 13/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | *** |  EU | EZ GDP 2nd (Flash) |
| 13/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Employment |
| 13/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 13/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | EU | ECB's de Guindos Lecture At Academia Europea Leadership | |
| 13/02/2026 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB's de Guindos Remarks and Q&A At Círculo de Confianza | |
| 13/02/2026 | 1200/1200 |  GB | BOE's Pill Fireside Chat At Santander Macro Event | |
| 13/02/2026 | - | GB | BOE MPG Minutes Released | |
| 13/02/2026 | - | *** |  CN | New Loans |
| 13/02/2026 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 13/02/2026 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 13/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** |  US | CPI |
| 13/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 13/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 13/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | US CPI Annual Revised |
| 13/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 13/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 13/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 13/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
