EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: China Equities Retreat After Surging Through August

Source: Bloomber Finance L.P./MNI
UK
BOE (MNI BRIEF): The splits amongst Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members over policy easing and inflation risks were starkly visible in their early remarks to the Treasury Select Committee Wednesday and look set to continue after the MPC split 5-4 in August over a 25 bps cut.
FISCAL (BBG): “Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves says growth is the solution to Britain’s economic problems. At her budget on Nov. 26, she faces the prospect of having to kill it.”
INVESTMENT (BBG): “Saudi Arabia and the UK announced more than £360 million ($484 million) in joint investment deals as the countries look to further boost economic ties and promote cross-border investment.”
EU
RUSSIA/UKRAINE (CBS/BBG): " President Trump says he remains committed to pursuing a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, in a phone interview with CBS News."
RUSSIA/NORTH KOREA (RTRS): “North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country would "fully support" Russia's army as a "fraternal duty", and Russian President Vladimir Putin called the two countries' ties "special", state media KCNA reported on Thursday.”
POLAND (BBG): “Poland’s new president got just what he came to Washington for — a commitment from Donald Trump that the US won’t pull troops from his country and could even increase their presence.”
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, Stephen Miran, has vowed to “preserve independence” of the central bank if he is confirmed in the position by the US Senate. Miran is set to appear before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee in his confirmation process tomorrow morning.
TARIFFS (RTRS): "Donald Trump's administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday to swiftly hear a bid to preserve his sweeping tariffs pursued under a 1977 law meant for emergencies after a lower court invalidated most of the levies that have been central to the Republican president's economic and trade agenda.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday said inflation is still too high and he is not yet in the camp that tariff-driven inflation will be a short-term phenomenon, pitting himself against others who have argued that tariffs will have a one-time impact.
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The Federal Reserve's 2025 framework revision largely retained the 2020 shift to support a broad-based view of maximum employment so long as inflation appears to be under control, retaining the experience of the economy's long recovery from the financial crisis, Preston Mui, senior economist at Employ America, told MNI.
FED (MNI): Rising inflation presents a greater risk to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate than a deteriorating labor market even as hiring has slowed, and a single 25 bp rate cut this year would appropriately reflect the rising risk to the Fed's full employment goal, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday.
JOBS (MNI BRIEF): All but one of the 12 Federal Reserve districts saw little or no net change in overall employment levels in August as firms told the Fed they were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty, according to the Fed's Wednesday report on current economic conditions.
TECH (CNN): “President Donald Trump will host tech leaders for a dinner in the Rose Garden on Thursday, the first event to be held in the newly renovated space.
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI POLICY): MNI outlines the BOJ's inflation expectations concerns. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday he wants to expand trade with China after years of diplomatic tensions and that a long phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump Monday night produced no breakthrough to ease tariffs on autos and steel.
CHINA
STOCKS (BBG): “China’s financial regulators are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market as they grow concerned about the speed of a $1.2 trillion rally since the start of August, people familiar with the matter said.”
STOCKS (SECURITIES TIMES): “Sales of stock-focused mutual funds in China have gathered pace this year as equities fund performance rebounds amid recent stock market rallies, Securities Times reported.”
BONDS (PBOC): “The Ministry of Finance and the People’s Bank of China will deepen cooperation, strengthen coordination and continue to promote the stable and healthy development of China’s bond market as well as ensure the effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, according to a statement on the PBOC website.”
HOUSING (21ST CENTURY BUSINESS HERALD): “New home transaction areas in Shanghai rose 35% in the last week of August over the prior week, after the city scrapped the limit on the number of houses purchased outside the outer ring road and lowered borrowing costs, 21st Century Business Herald reported.”
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY203.5 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY212.6 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY203.5 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY416.1 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1052 Thurs; -0.33% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1052 on Thursday, compared with 7.1108 set on Wednesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1405 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q2 VOLUME OF ALL BUILDINGS Q/Q -1.8%; MEDIAN -1.0%; PRIOR 1.3%
AUSTRALIA JULY HOUSEHOLD SPENDING M/M 0.5%; MEDIAN 0.5%; PRIOR 0.3%
AUSTRALIA JULY HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y 5.1%; MEDIAN 5.0%; PRIOR 4.6%
AUSTRALIA JULY TRADE BALANCE A$7310MN; MEDIAN A$4900MN; PRIOR A$5366MN
AUSTRALIA JULY EXPORTS M/M 3.3%; PRIOR 6.3%
AUSTRALIA JULY IMPORT M/M -1.3%; PRIOR 1.5%
SOUTH KOREA JULY BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE $10788.7MN; PRIOR $14265MN
MARKETS
US TSYS: Yields Mixed In a Quiet Session
The TYZ5 range has been 112-16 to 112-19 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-18, down 0-01+ from the previous close.
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: 30yr Yield Down Post Auction, Labour Earnings Data Tomorrow
Futures sit at 137.55, +.26 versus settlement levels. Post lunch break highs were at 137.65. This was close to highs seen at the start of Sep. US tsy futures hold a touch weaker, but have had a quiet session, while cash Tsy yields are down a touch.
AUSSIE BONDS: Yields Correct Lower, Household Spending Remains Firm In July
Aussie bond futures are holding gains. The 3yr (YM) last at 96.49.5, just off session highs, while the 10yr (XM) was at 95.61, +5.5bps. Session highs for this benchmark were at 95.62. The cash ACGB curve is 3-6.5bps lower across the benchmarks and like elsewhere has been led by the back end, as curves flatten. The ACGB 3/10s curve is a touch flatter, at +88bps.
BONDS: NZGBS: Flatter Curve In Line With Global Moves
NZGB yields sit 3-6bps weaker across the benchmarks, led by the back end. The 2yr remains under 3% last around 2.95% (off 3bps). The 10yr was back close to 4.40%, off nearly 6bps. Markets gaped lower around the open, in yield terms, and price action since then has been fairly muted. The NZ 2/10s curve is slightly flatter at +145bps. These moves largely reflect offshore developments from Wednesday.
FOREX: Asia Wrap - USD Stabilised After Overnight Fall
The BBDXY has had a range of 1204.59 - 1206.37 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1206, +0.07%. The USD topped out above 1210 and reversed lower with US yields in response to a softer JOLTS report. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows. The USD is looking comfortable for the moment above this support, not sure we get any clear direction though until the market sees what the NFP print is.
Fig 1: BBDXY Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Consolidates Around 148.00
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 147.80-148.28, Asia is currently trading around 148.25, +0.10%. USD/JPY again rejected the 149.00 area overnight, helped by a softer JOLTS report which saw US yields move quickly lower. The demand towards 146.00 has been pretty solid all of July and August, keeping us for the most part in a 146.00-149.00 range. The price action looks pretty constructive but I would not be expecting any major extensions until the market has had a look at the NFP on Friday, which given the reaction to JOLTS could be a key driver.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Drifts Lower As China Looks To Curb Speculation
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6534 - 0.6550 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6535, -0.15%. The AUD has drifted lower as Chinese authorities contemplate options to rein in speculative trading. The AUD remains in the middle of its recent multi-month range of 0.6350-0.6650 with little clear long-term direction. The market will be looking towards NFP at the end of the week to hopefully be a catalyst.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Drifts Lower
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5867 - 0.5890 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5875, -0.10%. The NZD found some demand again just under 0.5850 overnight and bounced higher from there as the USD got sold in response to the softer JOLTS data. The NZD sellers should continue to be around looking to fade any bounce back towards the 0.5950 area initially, NFP’s will be an important input.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: China's Markets Lead the Decline
China equity benchmarks were lower for the third straight session as BBG reported that potential measures were being considered to curb market sentiment. "The measures proposed to top policymakers in recent weeks include the removal of some short selling curbs. Authorities are also contemplating options to rein in speculative trading on concern a sharp reversal might inflict heavy losses on retail investors." (per BBG). Fear has been growing among investors that Chinese regulators will intervene to rein in the excessive stock gains, with measures including acceleration of new stock supply, restrictions on margin accounts and selling of large stakes held by state buyers.
Gold Backs off from All Time Highs
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 04/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | Flash Inflation Report | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | Flash Inflation Report | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | Decision Maker Panel data | ||
| 04/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EZ Retail Sales | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0930/1130 | ECB Cipollone Speaks at Digital Euro Hearing, European Parliament | ||
| 04/09/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | ADP Employment Report | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Non-Farm Productivity (f) | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (final) | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | Fed nominee Stephen Miran | ||
| 04/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | Natural Gas Stocks | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US DOE Petroleum Supply | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1605/1205 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 04/09/2025 | 2300/1900 | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | ||
| 05/09/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | average wages (p) | |
| 05/09/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | Household spending | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Manufacturing Orders | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | Foreign Trade | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | Retail Sales | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | Employment | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EZ GDP 3rd (Regular) | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Labour Force Survey |